SpaceX First Ever Earnings Tonight, Palantir Rips 17% Premarket

SpaceX drops its first ever earnings tonight at 2:00 AM IST with SPCX near $118. Palantir jumps 17% premarket after Q2 beat and guide raise. AMD due too.

TLDR

SpaceX (SPCX) prints its first ever quarterly earnings tonight at 2:00 AM IST, its Wall Street debut since the June 11 IPO priced at $135. The stock changed hands near $118 intraday Tuesday, still down 13 percent from the offer and 48 percent from the June 16 high of $225.64, but rebounding off Monday’s fresh all time low at $104.83. Analysts expect a loss of $0.26 per share on roughly $6.9 billion of revenue. AMD reports in the same window. Palantir carried Monday’s earnings baton overnight with a blowout beat and a full year guide raise from $7.65 to $7.66 billion up to $8.15 to $8.16 billion, sending PLTR up about 17 percent in premarket. Dow futures added another 200 points before the open, Nasdaq futures traded 0.7 percent higher, and Amazon sat above a $3 trillion market cap for the first time.

Market Regime

Tuesday sets up as a bullish continuation tape carried by two live earnings prints and one guide raise that Wall Street has already agreed to reward. Monday closed with a Dow record at 53,178.41, the S&P 500 within 30 basis points of an all time high at 7,600.50, and the Nasdaq back to 25,913.90 after a 2.13 percent rip. The engine is Q2 earnings, where roughly 85 percent of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates and aggregate profit growth is tracking above 47 percent. Palantir extended that story overnight. Caterpillar joined in with a Q2 beat that added another 6 percent premarket.

What could break it. Oil is climbing again after fresh reports of tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, reversing Monday’s Iran de-escalation trade that took crude down 5 percent. The 30 year Treasury yield remains near a multi decade high above 5.20 percent. And the mechanical setup for SPCX gets heavier on Thursday when the first tranche of lockup shares, up to 911.5 million, becomes tradable roughly 40 hours after tonight’s print.

Bullish Factors

• Palantir Q2 beat: revenue growth of 94 percent, US commercial up 149 percent, net dollar retention 157 percent, Q3 guide $2.16 to $2.164 billion vs $1.997 billion consensus, full year guide raised from $7.65 to $7.66 billion up to $8.15 to $8.16 billion. Stock up about 17 percent premarket.
• Dow closed at a record 53,178.41 Monday, up 1.32 percent. S&P 500 within 30 bps of an all time high at 7,600.50. Nasdaq +2.13 percent to 25,913.90.
• Amazon closed above a $3 trillion market capitalisation for the first time on Monday’s tech rally, joining Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple in the four comma club.
• Q2 earnings season running hot: about 85 percent of S&P 500 reporters have beaten estimates and aggregate profit growth is tracking above 47 percent.
• SPCX rebounded 5.68 percent Monday off Friday’s fresh all time low at $104.83. Options positioning skewed toward a squeeze into tonight given the depressed float.
• Micron up 3 percent, Marvell up 7 percent, Caterpillar up 6 percent in premarket on beats.

Bearish Factors

• SPCX lockup unlock lands Thursday August 6, two trading days after tonight’s print. Up to 911.5 million shares become sellable at once, roughly 1.45 times the current tradable float of about 639 million. At current prices that is close to $109 billion of potential supply.
• SpaceX enters earnings deeply unprofitable: 2025 net loss of $4.9 billion on $18.7 billion of revenue, Q1 2026 loss of $4.28 billion, AI segment operating loss of $2.47 billion in Q1 alone. Only Starlink is profitable.
• Oil prices climbing again in early European trade after new Strait of Hormuz attack reports, reversing Monday’s 5 percent slide on Iran de-escalation.
• 30 year US Treasury yield remains above 5.20 percent, still hovering near a multi decade high.
• A common Wall Street pattern of post earnings sell offs even on beats: Palantir has beaten every quarter for two years and yet the stock dropped after four of the last five prints before tonight.

Asian Markets This Morning

Asia closed higher across the board on Tuesday, tracking Monday’s US rally and pricing in a friendlier oil setup, though gains lagged the S&P.

• Nikkei 225 +0.32 percent at 63,957.53. Kioxia up nearly 6 percent, SoftBank leading gains.
• Kospi +1.62 percent at 6,358.95. Goldman Sachs reiterated its 12,000 target citing depressed valuations near 5x forward earnings and a longer semiconductor cycle.
• Hang Seng traded mixed near 25,050, digesting the tech rebound.
• Shanghai Composite finished modestly higher near 3,830.
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 +0.4 percent, riding the Wall Street handoff.

What Moved Wall Street Monday

US indices staged one of the cleaner risk on sessions of the summer, powered by cheaper oil, softer bond yields off the multi decade high, and buying across the entire mega cap tech complex. The Dow crossed 53,000 for a fresh record close. Amazon punched above $3 trillion for the first time. The Nasdaq’s 2.13 percent gain reflected leadership from Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft, all of which posted solid daily prints.

Data helped. ISM Manufacturing PMI for July printed at 55.6, the highest reading since May 2022, giving the growth trade a fundamental cover story. Crude dropped roughly 5 percent on reports that Iran de-escalation talks were advancing, briefly taking pressure off both energy inflation and the risk premium in the long end of the curve. That tailwind is being retested Tuesday morning as new attack reports around the Strait of Hormuz emerge.

Assets in Focus

SPCX (SpaceX)

First ever earnings drop at 2:00 AM IST tonight, live webcast from investors.spacex.com. Analyst consensus sits at roughly $6.88 billion of revenue with an expected loss of $0.26 per share. Morgan Stanley remains Overweight with a $300 target, though more than two thirds of recent investor meetings at the firm reported bearish views through year end. The three segments are Space, Starlink and the freshly folded in xAI. Starlink is the only profitable line, generating $1.19 billion of operating profit on $3.26 billion of revenue in Q1 with subscriber count above 10 million and growing at more than 100 percent year on year. What the tape wants tonight is granular segment level disclosure, Starship commercialisation cadence, and any framework on how xAI’s $2.47 billion Q1 loss gets bent lower.

The other clock ticking is Thursday’s lockup. Two trading days after tonight, the first tranche of the staged lockup expires, releasing up to 911.5 million shares. At about $118 that is roughly $109 billion of potential supply hitting a market that has only 639 million shares trading today.

AMD

Q2 print at the same 2:00 AM IST window. Street looks for roughly $14.4 billion of revenue and $0.21 in earnings per share, with options pricing an implied move of 12 to 15 percent. Data center segment growth and the pace of MI300 series shipments carry the story. The stock has traded in a tight range into the print after the recent semi rebound.

PLTR (Palantir)

Delivered a full stack beat Monday after the bell: revenue up 94 percent, US commercial up 149 percent, net dollar retention 157 percent versus 150 percent in Q1, EPS of $0.41 versus $0.33 expected. Guidance was raised across the board, including a full year 2026 revision from $7.65 to $7.66 billion up to $8.15 to $8.16 billion. Q3 guide was set at $2.16 to $2.164 billion versus a Street consensus of $1.997 billion. CEO Alex Karp told CNBC the growth reflects sovereign AI demand, a framing that resonated with the tape overnight. PLTR was quoted up about 17 percent in premarket around $144.

NVDA

Not reporting today but leading the semiconductor sentiment recovery. Micron up 3 percent and Marvell up 7 percent premarket on positive read throughs from adjacent memory and networking prints. The Semiconductor index has retraced most of last month’s drawdown.

Index Levels to Watch

Reference points for context, not entry or exit signals.

SPCX: intraday range 116.20 to 118.64, resistance at $122.44 breakout, support at $107 to $110 zone from the recent channel.

S&P 500: prior close 7,600.50, all time high resistance approximately 7,624, support at the 21 day moving average around 7,548.

Nasdaq 100: prior close 25,913.90, resistance at the July high near 26,050, support at 25,600.

Dow Jones: prior close 53,178.41 record high, next round number resistance at 53,500, support at 52,800.

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