Palantir Reports Tonight as Iran Truce Lifts US Futures

Palantir reports Q2 after Monday’s bell as oil crashes 5% on Iran truce, Kospi gives back 5.13% of Friday’s record rip, and PLTR options price a 12% swing.

TLDR

Trump called off planned strikes against Iran over the weekend and announced fresh diplomatic talks, sending oil down about 5 percent, bonds firmer, and US index futures higher into Monday’s open. But Asia is paying back a chunk of Friday’s historic rip: Kospi closed 5.13 percent lower at 6,257.41 after Friday’s +17.91 percent record surge, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both slumping close to 9 percent. Palantir reports Q2 after the US bell tonight (2:30 AM IST Tuesday) with options pricing a 12 percent swing. SpaceX prints its first-ever quarterly result Tuesday, and the July jobs report lands Friday. This is a mixed-signal open: risk-on macro, risk-off semis, and a retail-magnet earnings binary tonight.

Market Regime

The setup Monday looks less about direction and more about payback and re-balancing. Iran de-escalation over the weekend is doing what earnings alone could not: it is unwinding the two things that broke the tape on Friday, oil above $85 and 30-year Treasury yields at 5.25 percent, the highest since 2007. Both are reversing in early trade, with WTI down almost 5 percent to $80.58 and the long end of the curve firming. Dow futures are leading (+1 percent), the S&P 500 is tracking (+0.6 percent), and the Nasdaq is dragging (+0.2 percent) as the semiconductor complex absorbs the Kospi selloff.

Underneath, positioning still looks fragile. The Nasdaq-100 fell almost 7 percent in July, its worst month since March 2025. Nvidia, Micron and Broadcom sit well off their June 22 peaks, and the Kospi print today is the second violent leg in a week where Korean regulators are now openly discussing capping leveraged ETF products. What could break the day: any headline that Iran talks collapse, any macro guidance from Palantir’s call that misses the 71 times sales bar the stock is trading at, and any hint from Friday’s NFP that hiring is re-accelerating hard enough to bring the September rate hike back on the table.

Bullish Factors

• Iran de-escalation weekend. Trump called off planned strikes and confirmed talks. Gulf allies including Saudi Arabia pushed for diplomacy.
• Oil down about 5 percent. WTI at $80.58 and Brent around $84 remove the biggest inflation impulse from Friday’s tape.
• Bonds firming. The 30-year yield is backing off Friday’s 5.25 percent multi-decade high, taking pressure off duration-sensitive tech.
• Amazon confirms the AI capex thesis. AWS grew 37 percent in Q2 with $200.6B revenue on Friday. AMZN closed +15.32 percent, and management committed another $35B to OpenAI.
• Broad participation is building. The S&P 500 equal weight index extended its winning streak to four straight months, a signal breadth is not just mega-cap-led.
• Dow futures leading (+1 percent). Cyclical and industrial names catching a bid on the reopen.

Bearish Factors

• Kospi payback is severe. The index closed at 6,257.41, down 5.13 percent, after Friday’s +17.91 percent record. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both around 9 percent lower. KOSDAQ tripped its sidecar mechanism.
• Semiconductor complex still fragile. Nasdaq-100 fell 6.95 percent in July, its worst month since March 2025. Micron and SanDisk are retreating premarket.
• Palantir priced for perfection. PLTR trades at roughly 71 times sales and 113 times forward P/E into a print with a 12 percent implied swing. Any guide miss reprices the AI-software basket.
• SpaceX overhang. SPCX is 2 percent lower premarket at $106.28 into Tuesday’s first-ever earnings, and the Aug 6 lockup releases roughly 930M shares, about $100B at spot.
• Fed still hawkish. Fed funds futures price a 64 percent chance of a September rate hike after Chair Warsh’s line last week.
• Korean regulatory pressure. Seoul is weighing cutting leveraged ETF ratios from 2x to 1.5x or 1x, plus stricter margin rules, following Kospi’s round-trip.

Asian Markets This Morning

Kospi closed down 5.13 percent at 6,257.41 in Seoul on Monday, its second violent print of the week and a partial reversal of Friday’s +17.91 percent rip, the biggest single-day gain since the index’s inception in 1980. The heavyweight duo did the damage. Samsung Electronics fell close to 9 percent after Friday’s +26.81 percent, and SK Hynix dropped roughly 8 to 9 percent after Friday’s +29.95 percent limit-up. The KOSDAQ hit its sidecar mechanism during the session, and Korea’s Financial Services Commission is publicly discussing emergency action authority to cap leveraged ETF ratios.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 0.94 percent at 63,754.90 after being off as much as 1.9 percent at 63,140 early in the session. The Topix held roughly flat. The yen strengthened against the dollar on weekend risk-off, capping exporter gains. Hang Seng bucked the region up 0.6 percent at 26,038.92, Shanghai Composite ended down 0.5 percent at 3,812.97, ASX 200 slipped 0.2 percent to 8,961.30, and Taiwan’s Taiex added 0.7 percent.

What Moved Wall Street Today

Friday, the last trading session of July, closed higher across the board. The Nasdaq Composite added 1 percent to 25,373.85, the S&P 500 rose 0.7 percent to 7,489.72, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.53 percent to 52,485.03, up 276.97 points on the day.

Amazon was the story. AMZN surged 15.32 percent on Friday after Thursday’s after-hours print showed Q2 revenue of $200.6B and AWS growing 37 percent, a fifth consecutive quarter of cloud acceleration. The company also committed another $35B to OpenAI. Apple pulled the other way after Thursday’s guide of 9 to 11 percent for the December quarter versus the Street’s 12 percent, plus a Services line of $30.74B that missed and a Greater China number of $18.8B that also missed.

The bond market was the loud tell. The 30-year Treasury yield spiked to 5.25 percent, its highest level since 2007, and the 10-year topped 4.71 percent, its highest since January 2025, as traders lost patience with Chair Warsh’s inflation posture. The Nasdaq-100 still closed July down 6.95 percent, its worst month since March 2025 and the third negative month of 2026 for the tech-heavy benchmark.

Assets in Focus

PLTR

Palantir reports Q2 after the US bell tonight, 5:00 PM ET or 2:30 AM IST Tuesday. Consensus is revenue $1.81B (+81 percent YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.34 to $0.35 versus $0.16 in the year-ago quarter. The stock trades at roughly $123, about 40 percent off the Q4 2025 peak near $200, and options are pricing a 12 percent one-day swing. Palantir has beaten EPS eight quarters in a row, but it is now trading at 71 times trailing sales and 113 times forward earnings, so a headline beat alone will not be enough. Oppenheimer is looking for 85 percent revenue growth and a guide raise; Morningstar has a $153 fair value. Watch AIP deployment metrics and U.S. government contract commentary.

AMZN

Amazon closed Friday at roughly $271 after the 15.32 percent Q2 rip. AWS 37 percent growth was the swing factor. The $35B additional OpenAI commitment lifts total capex commentary into the frame for the sector. On the tape, the $279 area is the next 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the recent range.

AAPL

Apple’s Q1 FY27 guide of 9 to 11 percent versus the Street’s 12 percent, plus Services and Greater China misses, remain the overhang into a week of positioning. Cook’s final earnings call has passed; John Ternus takes over as CEO on September 1. Any incremental supply chain commentary during the week will move the tape.

SPCX

SpaceX trades at $106.28 in premarket, down about 2 percent, into its first-ever quarterly earnings report Tuesday after the bell. The bigger overhang is the Aug 6 lockup expiry, which frees roughly 930M shares, about $100B at spot, to trade. The stock has fallen from its June high near $225.

AMD

AMD reports Tuesday after the bell. The recent Core Scientific AI partnership caused a 6.7 percent drop when announced, so the market is watching for datacenter GPU commentary and MI350 series demand signals. Any read-through to Nvidia’s second-half backlog will be immediate.

Index Levels to Watch

The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at 25,373.85. Support sits at the 24,800 to 25,000 zone. Resistance is at 25,800. The Nasdaq-100 futures reading tracks the NSDQ100 instrument on CoinDCX Global Futures.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72 on Friday. Support is at 7,400 and resistance at 7,550 to 7,600.

The semiconductor complex remains fragile after Kospi’s giveback. PHLX Semiconductor Index closed Friday roughly flat and stays more than 20 percent below its June 22 peak.

XLE will gap on the oil crash. Watch the sector for oversold rebound signals through the session.

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