SanDisk Reports Q4 Tonight With Options Pricing a 25% Move

Sandisk Q4 FY26 earnings tonight with 25% implied move. AMD, SpaceX both slid after beats. S&P 500 and Dow at record highs. Kospi +3.76%, Nikkei +3.66%.

TLDR

SanDisk (SNDK) reports fiscal Q4 2026 after the close at 4:30 PM ET (2:00 AM IST Aug 6), the third memory-cycle print in eight sessions after Micron and SK Hynix. Options are pricing a 25 percent single-day move. The company guided revenue to $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $30 to $33; Street consensus sits above the high end at roughly $8.3 billion and $34.24. Overnight, SpaceX (SPCX) beat revenue in its first-ever earnings print but slid 5 to 8 percent after hours on $18.37 billion in capex, and AMD posted a record $11.5 billion quarter yet fell 8.94 percent after hours on data-center concentration concerns. Wall Street closed at fresh record highs Tuesday: S&P 500 7,736.52 (+1.79%), Dow 54,085.88 (+1.71%), Nasdaq 26,584.99 (+2.59%). Asian markets ripped overnight with the Kospi +3.76% and the Nikkei +3.66%.

Market Regime

Two straight sessions have taken the S&P 500 and the Dow to record closes, powered by Palantir’s 29.45 percent moonshot after raising guidance, Caterpillar +5.6 percent as an AI-adjacent industrial, and falling crude on Strait of Hormuz de-escalation talk. The Nasdaq has clawed back almost 9 percent from its July 29 low. That is the constructive tape.

The unconstructive part sits in the after-hours prints. SPCX beat top-line by nearly $900 million and still traded down as capex tripled versus expectations. AMD beat and guided ahead of Street on Q3 and still fell 8.94 percent after hours. This is a market that is comfortable buying the setup and hostile to the actual delivery, and SNDK walks into that hostility tonight with a 25 percent implied move and a stock that closed at $1,408.58, already down 1.33 percent Tuesday while the rest of tech was ripping.

Bullish Factors

• SPCX first-ever earnings: revenue $7.81 billion vs $6.93 billion expected, loss $0.09 vs $0.26 expected loss, Starlink subscribers scaling, cash pile at $93.5 billion post-IPO
• AMD Q2 record revenue $11.5 billion, data-center segment $6.7 billion (+107% YoY), Q3 guide $12.7 to $13.3 billion vs $12.5 billion consensus
• S&P 500 and Dow at fresh record closes, VIX at 16.36, 10-year yield eased to 4.61 percent
• SNDK Q3 already posted revenue $5.95 billion and adjusted EPS $23.41; Goldman raised the price target to $2,200 in July on NAND supply tightness
• Kioxia JV extended five years at Yokkaichi plant, securing the supply side; Investor Day scheduled Aug 13 as follow-up catalyst
• Kospi +3.76% at 6,598.26 and Nikkei +3.66% at 66,300.44 overnight; Kioxia +4.24% in Tokyo confirms NAND bid

Bearish Factors

• SPCX capex $18.37 billion, up roughly 6x YoY with $15.83 billion in AI, materially above the $13.22 billion Street estimate, and the stock still dropped 5 to 8 percent after hours
• AMD -8.94% after hours to $472.20 despite the beat and raise; data center now 58 percent of revenue, and the market is questioning the H2 ramp
• SNDK guidance range $7.75 to $8.25 billion sits below Street consensus of $8.3 billion; a print inside the guidance range is technically a miss versus Street
• SNDK options implying a 25 percent move — the widest single-name straddle in the mega-cap memory complex this cycle
• Aug 6 SPCX lockup unlock opens up to 911.5 million insider shares, roughly $109 billion in tradable stock
• Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh keeping rates on hold with stubborn inflation; the front end of the curve is not a tailwind

Asian Markets This Morning

The Kospi added 239.31 points, or 3.76 percent, to close at 6,598.26, extending Tuesday’s rebound as SK Hynix rose 5.77 percent to 1,668,000 won and Samsung Electronics added 2.50 percent to 246,000 won. The chip complex is once again the muscle carrying the index. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 3.66 percent to finish at 66,300.44, led by SoftBank Group +13.96 percent after strong subsidiary earnings and Kioxia +4.24 percent on the NAND read-through. The Topix advanced 2.13 percent to 4,046. The overnight action confirms that Asian institutional money is buying the AI-and-memory setup into US session catalysts.

What Moved Wall Street Today

Tuesday’s tape was the strongest print of the last five sessions. The S&P 500 rose 1.79 percent to a record 7,736.52, taking out the early-June peak; the Dow gained 907.47 points, or 1.71 percent, to 54,085.88, its second consecutive record close; the Nasdaq Composite added 2.59 percent to 26,584.99, roughly 2 percent shy of its own June high. Palantir led the tape with a 29.45 percent ramp after raising annual guidance, its biggest single-day gain since February 2024. Caterpillar +5.6 percent carried the Dow as AI data-center power demand lifted its guide. Chip stocks broadly rallied ahead of AMD’s evening print. VIX slipped to 16.36, and 10-year yields eased to 4.61 percent. After the close, SPCX slid 5 to 8 percent on capex despite the top-line beat, and AMD dropped 8.94 percent after hours to $472.20.

Assets in Focus

SNDK

Sandisk closed at $1,408.58 (-1.33%) into tonight’s fiscal Q4 print. Guidance range $7.75 to $8.25 billion revenue and $30 to $33 non-GAAP EPS; Street consensus $8.3 billion and roughly $34.24. Options are pricing a 25 percent single-day move, wider than Micron’s July preprint band. The Kioxia JV extension and Goldman’s July price-target hike to $2,200 frame the bullish setup, but SPCX and AMD have both shown that a beat is not enough for this market. Follow-up Investor Day is Aug 13.

AMD

Record $11.5 billion revenue, up 50 percent year over year. The data-center segment doubled to $6.7 billion, 58 percent of the mix. Non-GAAP EPS $1.66 vs $1.62 expected. Q3 guide $12.7 to $13.3 billion vs $12.5 billion consensus. Yet the stock dropped 8.94 percent after hours to $472.20. The message from the tape: strong prints in the AI complex require substantially exceeding, not merely beating.

SPCX

First-ever quarterly report. Revenue $7.81 billion vs $6.93 billion expected (+92 percent YoY), loss $0.09 vs $0.26 loss expected. Capex $18.37 billion including $15.83 billion in AI. Cash $93.5 billion, debt $36.8 billion. Stock down 5 to 8 percent after hours into the $118 area. The Aug 6 lockup unlock opens the door for up to 911.5 million insider shares.

Index Levels to Watch

The Nasdaq Composite sits at 26,584.99 with the top of the range roughly 2 percent away at the early-June high. A break past that would confirm the July 29 low as durable; failure into SNDK’s post-print reaction could recycle the beat-and-sell dynamic that hit AMD and SPCX. The DRAM semiconductor index tracked by CoinDCX Global Futures remains the cleanest read-through: strong overnight action in SK Hynix +5.77 percent and Kioxia +4.24 percent marks the pre-print level as the base case.

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