Quick Stats — Nvidia Q1 FY27 Earnings
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Earnings Date | May 20, 2026 — After US market close (~2:30 AM IST, May 21) |
| Expected EPS | $1.75–$1.78 — +100%+ YoY growth |
| Expected Revenue | ~$78.8B — +~79% YoY — NVIDIA guidance $78B ±2% |
| Gross Margin Guidance | GAAP 74.9% ±50 bps — non-GAAP 75.0% ±50 bps |
| Prior Quarter EPS Surprise | Beat by 5.2% ($1.62 actual vs $1.54 estimate) |
| Analyst Consensus | 57 Buy / 2 Hold / 1 Sell — Strong Buy |
| Consensus Price Target | $269–$276 — KeyBanc $300, Cantor $350 |
| Forward P/E | ~27x FY27 consensus EPS |
| Options Implied Move | ~8.65% in either direction |
Nvidia Earnings Date: Q1 FY27 Timing and Market Context
NVIDIA is scheduled to report its Q1 FY27 Nvidia earnings on May 20, 2026, after the US market closes. The conference call begins at 5:00 PM ET, approximately 2:30 AM IST on May 21 for Indian traders. The quarter covers the period ended April 26, 2026.
The stock has rallied approximately 20% in the past month, pushing NVIDIA’s market cap to $5.71 trillion ahead of this Nvidia earnings report. That rally has created the most demanding setup of the Nvidia earnings 2026 cycle: NVIDIA beat consensus revenue every quarter of FY26 by 3 to 4%, and the stock fell on four of those five prints. The market is not rewarding past beats, it is pricing future guidance. This quarter more than any other in recent memory, the Q2 guide will move NVIDIA stock more than the Q1 headline.
Analysts have a Strong Buy consensus rating on Nvidia stock based on 40 Buys, one Hold, and one Sell assigned in the past three months. NVIDIA has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of approximately 5–8%.
Nvidia Earnings Expectations: What the Market Is Pricing In
NVIDIA’s own Q1 baseline is $78B revenue, plus or minus 2%. Wall Street consensus sits near $78.8B in revenue and $1.77 in non-GAAP EPS, implying roughly 78% year-on-year revenue growth, already above the company’s own guide. Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider is forecasting a beat of roughly $2B above consensus, with his Q2 estimate of $87.7B sitting 6% above average Wall Street projections.
The company-specific KPIs driving Nvidia earnings expectations this quarter:
- Data Center revenue: Consensus for Data Center revenue sits near $73B for Q1 FY27 — up from $62.3B in Q4 FY26
- Non-GAAP gross margin: NVIDIA guided 75.0% ±50 bps, the 75% line is the most watched margin metric.
Read more: What Is Earnings Season?
Prior Nvidia Results: Q4 FY26 Snapshot
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $68.1B | $65.9B | +3.4% beat |
| EPS (non-GAAP) | $1.62 | $1.54 | +5.2% surprise |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 75.2% | ~74.5% | Beat |
| Data Center Revenue | $62.3B (+75% YoY) | ~$60B | Beat |
| Stock Reaction | -5.46% next day | — | Beat-and-sell pattern continued |
These Nvidia quarterly results from Q4 FY26 set the bar for Q1 FY27. Across the last five quarters: average absolute next-day move 4.23%, with the stock falling despite revenue beats in four of those five prints. A good Nvidia earnings report is necessary but not sufficient, the Q2 guide is what determines the trade.
Analyst Ratings, Named Actions Ahead of Nvidia Q1 FY27 Results
The analyst consensus on NVIDIA stock sits at 57 Buy ratings, 2 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell rating across the coverage list. Most recently, KeyBanc’s John Vinh raised his price target from $275 to $300, maintaining a Buy rating, citing rising Blackwell GPU demand with shipments expected to increase 150,000–200,000 units per quarter, adding approximately $5–7B in revenue. He also expects early Rubin chip revenue of $3–4B. Wells Fargo raised its target to $315 from $265, while Cantor Fitzgerald analyst David Siffringer raised his target to $350 while maintaining Buy, the highest target on the street. The breadth of upward target revisions signals strong institutional conviction, but the beat-and-sell pattern means price targets alone do not guarantee post-earnings gains.
What Matters Most in Nvidia Quarterly Results
Data Center Revenue vs $73B Consensus — The Primary Signal
Data Center is the metric NVIDIA’s Nvidia earnings report lives and dies by. Blackwell-architecture GPUs drove close to 70% of Data Center compute revenue last quarter, making Blackwell demand the cleanest read on whether AI infrastructure spending is sustaining at the hyperscaler level. The Q4 FY26 base of $62.3B was +75% year on year. Consensus for Q1 FY27 Data Center revenue sits near $73B. If Data Center revenue clears $73B with continued Blackwell momentum, the AI infrastructure thesis stays intact. If growth decelerates materially below that level, the market will question whether AI capex is plateauing.
Gross Margin at 75% — Margin Direction Moves the Stock More Than Revenue
NVIDIA guided non-GAAP gross margin at 75.0% ±50 basis points after reporting 75.2% in Q4 FY26. At or above 75% confirms pricing power remains intact. Margin direction will move NVDA shares more than the revenue beat itself. The risk is architectural transition, as Blackwell scales and early Rubin shipments begin, product mix shifts can compress margins before the new architecture reaches full pricing efficiency. A gross margin print below 74.5% would be the single most bearish data point in this Nvidia earnings report regardless of headline revenue.
Q2 Guidance vs $86B Consensus — The Real Nvidia Earnings 2026 Market Mover
The Q2 guide is the number that determines the trade. Q2 FY27 consensus is $86.08B. The May 20 reaction hinges on whether NVDA guides above that, not on the Q1 print itself. Goldman Sachs has set its Q2 estimate at $87.7B, 6% above average Wall Street projections ,creating a buyside whisper number that is uncomfortably elevated. If NVIDIA guides Q2 in line with the $86B consensus, the stock may not react positively despite a clean Q1 beat. Guidance above $88B would be the catalyst for a sustained rally. Guidance below $85B would likely trigger selling even on a strong Q1.
The China commentary is embedded in this guidance. NVIDIA’s Q1 guidance assumed no Data Center compute revenue from China, any positive signal on China normalisation adds incremental upside to Q2 guidance credibility. The China H200 reopening versus the 15% US revenue-share is one of three catalysts that will decide the post-earnings tape.
Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bullish case: If NVIDIA reports Data Center revenue near or above the $73B consensus, keeps non-GAAP gross margin at or above the guided 75%, and guides Q2 revenue above the $86B Wall Street consensus, the beat-and-raise thesis plays out and NVDA likely breaks toward the $250–260 zone. KeyBanc’s expectation of early Rubin revenue of $3–4B in Q1 would be an additional positive surprise strengthening the forward roadmap narrative.
Bearish case: If gross margin falls below guidance or the Q2 guide disappoints relative to the $86B consensus bar, traders should watch $200–210 as the next meaningful support level. The stock has fallen on four of its last five beats, at a trailing P/E near 47x there is limited tolerance for any forward signal implying deceleration. A Q2 guide below $85B combined with a China caution flag is the clearest trigger for a sharp post-earnings decline.
Trading Angle: Why Nvidia Earnings Matter for Indian Traders
Over the past four quarters, NVIDIA’s average post-earnings move in absolute terms has been 3.16%, but options traders are pricing an 8.65% move for this Nvidia Q1 FY27 earnings print, reflecting elevated uncertainty around Q2 guidance and China policy commentary. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 90% probability that Nvidia earnings beat Q1 estimates, but as the beat-and-sell history confirms, beating estimates is not the trade. The Q2 guide is.
Options pricing currently implies an expected move of approximately 8.65% in either direction following the Nvidia earnings report, significantly above NVIDIA’s recent 3.16% average actual post-earnings move, reflecting unusually elevated uncertainty around Q2 guidance relative to the elevated $86B+ consensus bar.
For Indian traders, results will be available from approximately 2:30 AM IST on May 21. CoinDCX US Stock Futures will reflect post-earnings price action from that point, before Indian equity markets open at 9:15 AM IST. NVIDIA’s Nvidia results influence extends beyond the single stock, this Nvidia earnings report typically moves AMD, TSMC, and broader AI and semiconductor sentiment, creating flow effects across multiple futures positions.
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FAQs
Q1: When is the Nvidia earnings date for Q1 FY27?
NVIDIA is scheduled to report Nvidia Q1 FY27 earnings on May 20, 2026, after the US market close. The conference call begins at 5:00 PM ET. For Indian traders, results will be available from approximately 2:30 AM IST on May 21, before Indian equity markets open at 9:15 AM IST.
Q2: What are Nvidia earnings expectations for Q1 FY27 2026?
Wall Street consensus for Nvidia earnings 2026 Q1 FY27 sits near $78.8B revenue and $1.77 non-GAAP EPS, implying approximately 78% year-on-year growth. NVIDIA's own guidance is $78B ±2%. Data Center revenue consensus sits near $73B. Non-GAAP gross margin is guided at 75.0% ±50 basis points. The Q2 guidance, with consensus at $86B, is the number most likely to drive the stock reaction beyond the Q1 headline.
Q3: What should traders watch in Nvidia quarterly results for Q1 FY27?
The three signals most likely to drive the stock reaction in these Nvidia quarterly results are gross margin direction vs the 75% guideline, Q2 revenue guidance vs the $86B consensus bar, and China commentary on Data Center compute restrictions. A result that beats Q1 revenue but guides Q2 below $85B or signals gross margin compression below 74.5% can still trigger a sharp negative reaction, as the beat-and-sell history over the last five Nvidia quarterly results confirms.
Disclaimer
This article has been prepared by the CoinDCX Research Team for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. All data and figures cited are sourced from publicly available information, including NVIDIA’s official investor relations materials, SEC filings, and third-party financial sources at the time of publication. Past performance of any stock, including NVDA, is not indicative of future results. Trading US Stock Futures involves risk, including the risk of loss of capital. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. CoinDCX is not liable for any trading decisions made based on the content of this article.
