FOMC Minutes Day: Kospi Halted -5%, Oil Spikes 5%

Kospi tripped a circuit breaker at -5.35% and oil surged 5% on Iran sanctions, hours before FOMC minutes from a 9-9 split committee land at 2 PM ET.

TLDR

Wall Street’s chip rout entered a violent day two overnight. South Korea’s Kospi tripped a temporary trading halt intraday and closed down 5.35 percent at 7,246.80, its lowest print since May 20, with Samsung down 6.25 percent and SK Hynix off 5.68 percent. The Nikkei 225 dropped 2.11 percent to 66,819.05. On top of that, oil ripped more than 5 percent higher after the US Treasury revoked the Iran oil sales license and Iranian attacks near the Strait of Hormuz pushed the naval threat level to severe. All of this lands hours before the June 16 to 17 FOMC minutes hit at 2 PM ET, from a committee that split 9 to 9 on 2026 hikes and a chair, Kevin Warsh, who withheld his own dot for the first time in years. Micron reports after the close and SK Hynix’s Nasdaq ADR listing is Friday.

Market Regime

The tape has shifted from an AI capex stress test into an outright risk-off setup. Yesterday’s Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 5.5 percent in a single session, Intel fell 8.2 percent, Applied Materials was down 10 percent intraday, and Micron closed 4.7 percent lower. Overnight Asia carried the selloff further, with Kospi triggering its circuit breaker and the Nikkei breaking its June 15 lows. The rotation trade that held the Dow up on Monday started to fray on Tuesday as the blue-chip index gave back 130 points from its record.

Layered on the chip stress is a fresh oil shock. WTI is above 72 dollars and Brent above 76 dollars after the Treasury revoked the Iranian oil sales license and Iranian attacks near the Strait of Hormuz pushed the naval coalition’s threat level to severe. That is a supply-side inflation impulse arriving on the exact same morning the FOMC minutes drop at 2 PM ET from a committee where nine of eighteen members already project at least one 2026 hike. If those minutes read hawkish, the September hike odds re-price higher, bond yields extend, and the chip trade gets a rates squeeze on top of a demand squeeze. If they read softer, the rout gets a lifeline. Either way, today’s session runs on the minutes.

Bullish Factors for Wall Street Today

• A V-shape intraday reversal was reported across parts of Asia on bargain hunting in AI hardware names, suggesting short-term selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion. Kioxia held down only 0.73 percent and SoftBank was defensive at down 0.14 percent.
• SK Hynix’s Nasdaq American Depositary Receipt listing goes live on Friday, July 10, and Asian traders are treating it as a pivotal indicator for a possible semiconductor rebound. Strong first-day flows would signal that global demand for memory exposure remains intact.
• Fiserv gained 3.5 percent yesterday on reports it held discussions with JPMorgan and Bank of America to sell its payments infrastructure business. That is one datapoint that deal-making outside AI is still healthy.
• Amazon is reportedly raising 25 billion dollars in a bond sale. Investment-grade issuance of that size going through comfortably would confirm that the credit market is not pricing recession risk.
• The Dow held above 52,900 despite Tuesday’s chip carnage, and consumer and healthcare names supported the blue-chip index in the morning session before the afternoon fade. The rotation architecture is bruised but not broken.

Bearish Factors for Wall Street Today

• The Kospi triggered a temporary trading halt intraday for the second time in two sessions and closed down 5.35 percent at 7,246.80. Samsung Electronics fell 6.25 percent to 277,500 won, a one-month low. SK Hynix fell 5.68 percent to 2,076,000 won, barely holding the 2 million won line.
• Oil spiked more than 5 percent after the US Treasury revoked the Iran oil sales license and a naval coalition raised the threat level near the Strait of Hormuz to severe following Iranian tanker attacks. That is a fresh supply-side inflation impulse feeding into an already hawkish Fed backdrop.
• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 5.5 percent on Tuesday, and the SMH ETF fell over 3 percent. Intel dropped 8.2 percent, Applied Materials was down 10 percent intraday, Micron fell 4.7 percent, AMD lost 6.2 percent, and Nvidia declined 1.8 percent, extending the DeepSeek own-chip pressure.
• Nine of eighteen FOMC members project at least one rate hike in 2026, with the median dot at 3.8 percent, roughly 16 basis points above the current 3.50 to 3.75 range. Chair Kevin Warsh withheld his own dot and delivered the shortest FOMC statement in years, elevating today’s minutes as the primary on-record signal on a possible September hike.
• Micron reports after today’s close, and Wedbush’s Dan Ives warned that the memory maker’s guidance is now a critical stability test for US tech into Thursday’s session.

Asian Markets This Morning

Asia executed a coordinated risk-off across memory and AI hardware. South Korea’s Kospi triggered a temporary trading halt intraday and closed down 5.35 percent at 7,246.80, its lowest print since May 20. Samsung Electronics fell 6.25 percent to 277,500 won, its first close below 280,000 won in over a month. SK Hynix declined 5.68 percent to 2,076,000 won, barely holding the 2 million won line. The two heavyweights alone account for a significant share of the Kospi’s market capitalization, which explains the index-level violence.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.11 percent to 66,819.05, a new low since June 15, though the tape was mixed under the surface. Kioxia held down only 0.73 percent at 71,870 yen and SoftBank was defensive at down 0.14 percent to 5,763 yen, suggesting that not every AI hardware name is being liquidated at the same intensity. Analysts flagged a mid-session V-shaped intraday reversal driven by bargain hunting, though it did not carry the close. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and mainland China’s CSI 300 tracked lower on regional risk-off. Investors are now watching whether SK Hynix’s Nasdaq ADR listing on Friday, July 10, catalyzes a genuine rebound or confirms the sentiment reset.

What Moved Wall Street Yesterday

Tuesday delivered a broad-based tech-led decline with the Dow giving back its record close from Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 130.76 points, or 0.25 percent, to close at 52,925.15 after hitting a new all-time intraday high earlier in the session. The S&P 500 slid 0.45 percent to 7,503.85, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.16 percent to 25,818.69. The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.8 percent. Semiconductors led the decline, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index off 5.5 percent to a four-week low and the SMH ETF down over 3 percent.

Individual chip names took heavy damage. Intel shares sank 8.2 percent, Micron fell 4.7 percent, AMD lost 6.2 percent intraday, Applied Materials dropped 10 percent intraday, Broadcom, KLA and Marvell Technology all closed lower, and Nvidia fell 1.8 percent after Reuters reported that DeepSeek is developing its own AI inference chip. Fiserv rose 3.5 percent on reports of discussions with JPMorgan and Bank of America to sell its payments infrastructure business. Rivian traded down more than 10 percent in the premarket after announcing a public offering of 75 million Class A shares. Vertex Pharmaceuticals closed higher after announcing its 10 billion dollar acquisition of Crinetics, which nearly doubled after Monday’s close. Oil prices extended gains, with WTI adding more than 5 percent to above 72 dollars and Brent rising over 5 percent to above 76 dollars per barrel.

Assets in Focus

NVDA

Nvidia fell 1.8 percent yesterday, extending Monday’s DeepSeek pressure. Reuters reported that DeepSeek is developing its own AI inference chip, adding to the drag from Alibaba and Baidu’s in-house programs. The stock sits in the middle of a broad memory and AI hardware unwind, with today’s setup dependent on both the FOMC minutes tone and Micron’s after-close print. This is a reference point for context, not an entry or exit signal.

MU

Micron reports second quarter earnings after today’s close and the print is now central to whether the chip rout finds a floor. Micron shares closed 4.7 percent lower yesterday and were down as much as 7.3 percent intraday, extending losses into today’s session. Wedbush flagged Micron’s guidance as a critical stability test for the entire memory cohort, particularly following Samsung’s sell-the-news reaction and the DeepSeek chip disclosure.

INTC

Intel closed 8.2 percent lower yesterday, making it one of the top losers on the S&P 500. The move reversed Monday’s 3 percent gain that came from targeted CPU price hikes and a broader chip bid. Applied Materials, one of Intel’s key equipment suppliers, was down 10 percent intraday, indicating that the pressure is not just on the chip designers but the entire capital equipment food chain.

NSDQ100

Nasdaq-100 fell 1.8 percent yesterday and is at risk of a further leg down on continued Asia semiconductor weakness and pre-FOMC-minutes positioning. Today’s 2 PM ET FOMC minutes release is the primary catalyst, with a hawkish read likely to accelerate the rates and chip stress simultaneously. A softer read could unlock a mean-reversion bid into the close.

Index Levels to Watch

These are reference points for context, not entry or exit signals.

Oil WTI: above 72 dollars per barrel and rising. Watch for further Iran escalation and any Strait of Hormuz supply disruption, which would feed directly into the inflation narrative going into next week’s June CPI.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: closed at 52,925.15. Reference support at 52,742 from July 1, and the Monday record close at 53,055.91 is now near-term resistance.

S&P 500: closed at 7,503.85 and defended the 7,500 line by 15 handles. That level is the key test. Reference support below at 7,483.24 from July 3.

Nasdaq Composite: closed at 25,818.69. First downside reference at 25,800, then 25,500.

Nasdaq-100: fell 1.8 percent yesterday. Level to watch is whether the index defends its Monday base into the FOMC minutes release at 2 PM ET.

Disclaimer

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