Rocket Lab Reports Q2 Tonight After 41% Rally, CPI Wednesday Sets Fed Bar

TLDR

• Rocket Lab reports Q2 2026 after the US close today, call 5:00 PM ET (2:30 AM IST Tuesday), Wall Street looking for $231.6M revenue and a 6c loss against RKLB guidance of $225M to $240M.
• RKLB closed Friday at $82.83, up 9.46%, and traded up another 3 to 4% in Monday premarket after a 41% rally across seven sessions on Space Force contract wins that named Neutron as the launch vehicle.
• July NFP printed minus 23K jobs against 83K consensus, unemployment fell to 4.1% on labour force exits, May and June revised down a combined 103K, average hourly earnings 3.2% YoY.
• Fed funds futures now price a September hike at 44%, down from 55% Thursday and 67% a week ago, per CME FedWatch.
• S&P 500 closed Friday at a record 7,757.64 up 0.62%, Nasdaq 26,690.62 up 1.30%, Dow 54,036.93 up 0.28%, Russell 2000 3,034 up 1.10%, VIX 16.50, 10Y yield 4.64%.
• July CPI hits Wednesday at 6:00 PM IST, consensus 0.2% MoM headline and 0.3% MoM core, 2.8% YoY headline and 3.0% YoY core, both nudging higher on tariff pass-through.
• Kospi opened Monday up 0.8% at 6,306 and extended to 6,367 up 1.72%, Nikkei 225 opened up 0.5% at 65,905 and extended to 66,330 up 1.10%, SK Hynix and Samsung leading.
• Iran fired anti-ship missiles from Sirik late Sunday striking a tanker off Oman, WTI bounced 2.5% to $78.32, gold at $4,414, Berkshire Hathaway posted strong Q2 profit, Apple downgraded by Jefferies.

Market Regime

Wall Street enters Monday sitting at fresh records with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at all-time highs Friday, priced for a Fed that stops hiking. The July NFP miss (-23K vs +83K est) and downward revisions to May and June that lopped 103K off prior prints repriced the September FOMC almost overnight. Rate hike odds went from 67% a week ago to 44% by Friday close. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, forward guidance has stayed thin, which puts CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday squarely on the driver seat for the next Fed move.

The setup is dovish tape, defensive posture. Berkshire earnings on Sunday flagged strong Q2 profit and net buying, but Apple opened Monday under a Jefferies downgrade and oil bounced 2.5% on fresh Iran-Hormuz escalation, with Tehran launching missiles from Sirik striking a tanker off Oman. Two live tests today: RKLB Q2 tonight (5:00 PM ET call) after a 41% rally that has already priced in a lot, and CPI on Wednesday where a 0.3% core print keeps rate-cut talk directionally alive but a hotter tape reopens the September hike debate.

Bullish Factors

• September rate hike odds cut to 44% from 67% last week after July NFP disappointment, Fed on hold path getting more consensus, MTD equity flows shifted to duration and growth.
• Q2 earnings scorecard: of 436 S&P 500 companies reported through Friday, 85.1% topped estimates versus 68% long-run average per LSEG, EPS growth running roughly 25% YoY.
• Nasdaq semis had a 7%+ week with the rate-cut trade returning to AI infra names, NVDA and MSFT in the driver seat, semis leading Asia this morning.
• Kospi and Nikkei both opened green Monday and extended intraday, SK Hynix +5.77% and Samsung Electronics gains tracking the US Friday close bid.
• Gold at a 7-week high, 10Y yield at 4.64% down 3bp Friday, credit spreads stable, financial conditions the loosest since April.

Bearish Factors

• Iran-Hormuz risk premium is back on the tape, cruise missiles from Sirik struck an oil tanker off Oman late Sunday, WTI bounced 2.5% to $78.32, oil-sensitive names on watch.
• CPI Wednesday is the real Fed input, tariff pass-through consensus expects headline and core both accelerating vs June (2.7% to 2.8% headline, 2.9% to 3.0% core), any upside surprise reprices the front end.
• Storage sector overhang after WDC, SNDK and AppLovin selloffs Thursday, the memory rally has cooled into the CPI print.
• AAPL under Jefferies downgrade Monday, positioning risk given AAPL weight in S&P/Nasdaq and its Aug 1 guide concerns.
• Post-RKLB 41% rally, options positioning is heavy, any earnings disappointment tonight has room to unwind quickly, straddle implying a wide move on the print.

Asian Markets This Morning

Kospi opened Monday at 6,306.33 up 0.8% and extended to 6,366.71 up 1.72%, led by SK Hynix +5.77% and Samsung Electronics tracking US Friday semi strength. Nikkei 225 opened at 65,905.10 up 0.5% and extended to 66,329.75 up 1.10%, with the AI-infra basket bid but SoftBank down on profit-taking. Hang Seng and Shanghai were mixed into the US CPI wait, with China July CPI cooling to a six-month low over the weekend, adding a dovish global inflation input to Wednesday.

What Moved Wall Street Friday

The S&P 500 climbed 0.62% to a record close of 7,757.64. Nasdaq Composite led with a 1.30% jump to 26,690.62. Dow added 151.83 points, or 0.28%, to 54,036.93. Russell 2000 added 32.95, or 1.10%, to 3,034. VIX 16.50 up 4.04%, 10Y yield 4.64% down 3bp, WTI $75.27, gold $4,128 seven-week high.

The July jobs report was the catalyst. Nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 versus consensus for a gain of 83,000. Unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%, but the drop reflected workers leaving the labour force, participation to 61.4% from 61.5%. May and June were revised lower by a combined 103,000. Average hourly earnings 3.2% YoY, the lowest since May 2021. Bond yields fell, dollar weakened, rate-cut hopes reset. Semis led, RKLB rallied 9.46% on the day, SPCX and Intuitive Machines also jumped as space stocks caught a broader risk-on bid. Broader tape flagged three weekly gainers: S&P 500 +3.6%, Dow +3.0%, Nasdaq +5.2%.

Assets in Focus

RKLB (flag: not on CoinDCX Global Futures retail ticker list yet)

Rocket Lab reports Q2 2026 after the US close tonight with the conference call at 5:00 PM ET, 2:30 AM IST Tuesday. Wall Street looking for $231.6M revenue (+60% YoY) sitting almost exactly at guidance midpoint of $232.5M, and a loss of 6c per share, an improvement from the 13c loss in Q2 2025. RKLB closed Friday at $82.83 up 9.46%, with premarket Monday adding another 3 to 4% to trade around $85-86. The setup: shares are up 41% across seven sessions, driven by $663M in Space Force contracts including the $397M SB-AMTI award that specifically named Neutron as the launch vehicle with a 2028 deadline. Wall Street average PT $111.13 with 14 Buys and 4 Holds. What the tape wants: revenue near the top of guidance, GAAP gross margin above the 33-35% guide (Q1 was 38.2%), a firmer 2H trajectory, and specific Neutron milestones on first flight. With expectations already lifted, a soft margin print or vague Neutron timeline could unwind the run quickly.

AAPL

Apple opened Monday under a Jefferies downgrade, one of the more notable moves in the premarket tape. Combined with Q3 guidance concerns and the Services line reset from the Aug 1 print, this puts AAPL at the centre of the day’s single-stock focus. The stock closed Friday at $228.65. Any positioning shift here matters for Nasdaq breadth given AAPL’s index weight.

NVDA

Nvidia is one of the most active options in premarket Monday alongside TSLA and PLTR. The semiconductor complex added 7% for the week and Asia followed through Monday with SK Hynix +5.77% and semis leading Kospi. NVDA sits at $175.61 after Friday’s +1.29% Nasdaq close. The setup into the AI infra earnings tape (Applied Materials Thursday) puts NVDA in the frame as the AI infra beta.

TSLA

Tesla is in the active options list Monday. The rate-cut trade tends to favour long-duration growth and TSLA carries the highest sensitivity in the mega-cap complex. Friday close $315.00 after the S&P record. Watch for follow-through if the CPI print lands soft Wednesday.

DRAM Index

The memory-cycle proxy took a beating Thursday with SNDK -13% and WDC -18% on soft guides after the Q2 blowout prints. Asian trade Monday saw SK Hynix bounce +5.77%, hinting at buyer interest at cleared levels. DRAM index closed Thursday near $50 after the reset. The bull case: SK Hynix flows point to the memory cycle resetting, not breaking, and CPI Wednesday is the next macro test.

Index Levels to Watch

• NASDAQ 100: Friday record close area, momentum still with the rate-cut trade. Downside risk if CPI prints hotter than 3.0% core Wednesday. NSDQ100 futures on CoinDCX Global Futures.
• DRAM Index: Thursday selloff took the index near $50, watching for base-building around the $48-52 zone as Asia bid returns.
• S&P 500: All-time high 7,757 on Friday, immediate support 7,700 area, then 7,650 from the pre-NFP consolidation.

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