SpaceX lockup opens today, freeing up to 911.5M insider shares (~$101B). SPCX -13.6% Wed on capex, SanDisk beats but drops 13%, Kospi -4.6%. NFP Friday.
TLDR
- SpaceX – SPCX lockup expires today. Up to 911.5 million insider shares (about $101B at Wednesday’s close) become eligible for sale, though a separate 455.8M-share tranche stays locked because SPCX is trading below its $135 IPO price.
- SPCX closed Wednesday at $108.27 after its first-ever earnings print; AMD fell 7.04% on a record quarter and raised Q3 guide that still missed the bar.
- SanDisk (SNDK) reported a Q4 blowout after Wednesday’s close: revenue $8.97B, non-GAAP EPS $39.25 vs $34.45 estimate, gross margin 84.6%, and a new $14B buyback authorization. The stock is down 13% in Thursday’s regular session.
- Kospi -4.59% at 6,295.44 overnight with SK Hynix -10.37%, Samsung -6.30%, Kioxia -10.24%; Nikkei -0.93% at 65,683.26. Iran and Oman progress on the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent capped at $79.24. Focus turns to July NFP tomorrow.
Market Regime
Wall Street’s earnings tape has moved into beat-and-drop mode. Every marquee AI-adjacent print in the last 72 hours has topped consensus and been sold. SpaceX beat revenue and narrowed its loss, but $18.37B in Q2 capex sent the stock down 13.61%. AMD posted a record $11.5B quarter with Data Center at $6.7B and a raised Q3 outlook, and shed 7%. SanDisk delivered revenue up 372% YoY, an 84.6% gross margin, and a $14B buyback authorization, and is trading down 13% today. The signal is not that AI demand is broken. It is that a market at record highs has stopped paying for in-line beats, and any excuse to trim is being taken.
That thinning of buyer conviction meets a supply event today. SpaceX’s post-IPO lockup opens and frees up to 911.5M shares, more than the existing float. The extra 10% conditional tranche of 455.8M shares stays locked because SPCX is under its $135 IPO price, which caps the potential Day 1 supply but does not remove the overhang. Combine that with continued weakness in memory names in Asia; SK Hynix -10%, Samsung -6%, Kioxia -10% overnight and Wall Street enters Friday’s July payrolls with the AI complex on its heels while the Dow sits at a record.
Bullish Factors
- Dow closed Wednesday at a record 54,349.06. Russell 2000 printed an intraday record before fading. Breadth stays constructive across financials and industrials, both sectors closing at record highs.
- 70.34% of S&P 500 names traded above their 200-day moving average on Tuesday’s tape, up from a 40.92% low in the spring. That is the broadest participation since early June.
- SanDisk’s Q4 print delivered revenue +372% YoY, non-GAAP EPS beating by 14%, gross margin 84.6%, a $14B new buyback, and a Q1 FY27 guide midpoint of $10.55B. Demand and pricing remain tight even if the tape refuses to reward the print.
- Iran and Oman progress on the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent capped at $79.24. That defuses the near-term energy-shock tail into the next Fed meeting and reduces upside pressure on inflation prints.
- SoftBank’s fiscal Q1 net profit came in at ¥347.33B versus a ¥165.83B consensus, more than double the estimate. That is a real datapoint for AI-infra capex converting to owner cash.
Bearish Factors
- SPCX -13.61% at $108.27 into lockup-open day and $18.37B Q2 capex. SPCX trading below its $135 IPO price is itself a signal of post-IPO trust erosion.
- Nasdaq snapped a four-day win streak Wednesday, down 0.83% to 26,363.44. Tech enters Thursday on the defensive with memory names extending losses in the premarket.
- Memory rout is broad. SNDK -13% and WDC -18% in the US session, Kioxia -10.24% in Tokyo, SK Hynix -10.37% and Samsung -6.30% in Seoul. Breadth of the move signals cycle-fatigue, not one-stock idiosyncrasy.
- ADP July private payrolls came in at 44K versus a 70K expectation, pointing to labor softening one day before the official July NFP. A soft print risks a growth-scare wobble on top of the AI selloff.
- AppLovin -16% and Uber -6.2% show the beat-is-not-enough tape is spreading beyond memory and IPO names into names investors were counting on for follow-through.
Asian Markets This Morning
Kospi closed -4.59% at 6,295.44, the sharpest single-day drop since the late-July snapback. SK Hynix settled -10.37% at 1,495,000 won and Samsung Electronics -6.30% at 230,500 won. The pain sat squarely in memory. Nikkei 225 lost 0.93% to close at 65,683.26 with Kioxia -10.24% at ¥48,740 and SoftBank -4.41% at ¥5,695. The SoftBank move came despite a Q1 net profit of ¥347.33B that more than doubled the ¥165.83B consensus. Hang Seng slipped 1.8% to 25,463.51 while the Shanghai Composite held nearly flat at 3,878.92. The overnight message is that the memory selloff is not reversing, it is rotating.
What Moved Wall Street Yesterday
Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 54,349.06, a fresh record. S&P 500 slipped 0.17% to 7,723.52. Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,363.44, down 0.83% and snapping a four-day win streak. VIX ticked to 15.92. SPCX fell 13.61% into its Wednesday close of $108.27 as scrutiny of the $18.37B Q2 capex overwhelmed the beat on revenue and the narrower operating loss. AMD gave up 7.04% despite a record $11.5B quarter with Data Center at $6.7B; a raised Q3 outlook of $12.7 to $13.3B versus a $12.5B Street mark still failed to clear the bar. Eli Lilly rose 2.8% after raising its FY revenue forecast, Disney gained 2.2% after a Q3 profit beat and finalizing its A+E Global Media stake sale to Hearst, and Arista Networks added 3.8% on a Q3 guide above estimates. ADP July private payrolls came in at 44K versus 70K expected, a soft dataset heading into Friday’s July NFP.
Assets in Focus
SpaceX
Lockup opens today. Up to 911.5M shares eligible, roughly $101B at Wednesday’s close. The extra 10% conditional tranche of 455.8M shares stays locked because SPCX is under the $135 IPO price. Q2 results Tuesday AMC beat revenue expectations at ~$7.81B versus $6.93B estimate and narrowed the loss to -$0.09 versus -$0.26 estimate, but $18.37B Q2 capex ($15.83B on AI infrastructure) drove the -13.61% Wednesday move. Stock at $108.27 versus $135 IPO price versus $225.64 June 16 peak. Premarket -11%. Additional lockup tranches release through December 8; Musk’s ~6.4B shares stay locked until June 12, 2027.
AMD
Q2 revenue $11.5B (+50% YoY), Data Center $6.7B (+107%), EPS $1.66 versus $1.62 estimate. Q3 guide $12.7 to $13.3B versus $12.5B estimate. Stock -7.04% Wednesday. The drop was not about the print, it was about a market that has stopped tolerating anything short of raise-and-crush. NVDA prints August 26 and will inherit the same bar.
SanDisk
Fiscal Q4 revenue $8.97B (+372% YoY) versus $8.3B Street. Non-GAAP EPS $39.25 versus $34.45 estimate. Gross margin 84.6%. Net income $6.90B. New $14B buyback authorization. Q1 FY27 revenue guide midpoint $10.55B. Investor Day August 13. Stock down 13% in Thursday’s session. Note: SNDK is not on the CoinDCX Global Futures verified retail ticker list. The DRAM index remains the tradable proxy for the memory-cycle story.
DRAM Index
The cleanest proxy for today’s memory-cycle repricing. SK Hynix, Samsung, Kioxia, and Micron all traded with double-digit swings this week. DRAM index moves are the tradable path into or out of the Asia-led sell-off for retail traders using CoinDCX Global Futures.
NASDAQ 100
Snapped a four-day win streak Wednesday. Underlying Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,363.44 (-0.83%). The tape enters Thursday with SPCX -11% premarket, WDC -18%, AppLovin -16%. The tradable index proxy for the sell-the-beat theme currently running through AI-adjacent names.
Index Levels to Watch
- S&P 500: 7,723.52 close. Tuesday’s all-time intraday high at 7,758.21 is the near ceiling; the 7,600 area from Monday’s base is the first support pocket.
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,363.44. The 26,000 round-level and last week’s break base near 25,900 are the layered supports.
- Dow: 54,349.06 record close. Follow-through above 54,272 intraday high extends the record run.
- Kospi: 6,295.44 after a 4.59% drop. The late-July snapback high at 6,595 is the ceiling if memory names stabilize.
- Nikkei 225: 65,683.26. The 65,000 handle is the first line if memory drags continue.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Trading in futures and other financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal, and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Levels and data referenced in this piece are reference points for context, not entry, exit, or trade signals. CoinDCX does not solicit or offer securities of any kind. Please conduct your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. What is the SpaceX lockup expiration on August 6 2026?
SpaceX's first post-IPO lockup expiration falls two full trading days after its first earnings release. Up to 911.5 million insider shares, roughly $101B at Wednesday's close, became eligible for sale on August 6. Because SPCX is trading below its $135 IPO price, a separate 10% tranche of 455.8M shares stays restricted per the offering's performance clause. The full 180-day lockup expires December 8, 2026. Elon Musk's approximately 6.4B shares stay locked until June 12, 2027 under a separate 366-day agreement.
Q2. Why is SanDisk (SNDK) falling 13% after beating Q4 estimates?
The market is not disputing the print. Revenue was up 372% YoY, non-GAAP EPS beat by 14%, gross margin came in at 84.6%, and management authorized a new $14B buyback. The sell-off reflects skepticism that AI-driven storage demand can keep growing at the current pace. When base rates are already up more than 3x YoY, the burden shifts to what comes after this quarter, not what is already in it.
Q3. Why is the Kospi down 4.59% today?
Seoul's memory complex dominates its index. SK Hynix -10.37% and Samsung -6.30% overnight followed the weakness in US memory names (SNDK -13%, WDC -18%) and reflect the same great-print-sold-hard pattern that hit Wall Street. Kioxia in Tokyo lost 10.24% on the same theme.
Q4. What is the setup into Friday's July NFP?
Wednesday's ADP came in at 44K versus 70K expected, a softer read. The Fed's target range is 3.50 to 3.75% after the late-July hold. A soft NFP would sharpen the growth-scare case; a strong one would keep rate-hike odds where they are. The AI-selloff overlay makes a growth-negative print riskier than usual, but a hot print would also lift real yields into a market already looking for reasons to trim.
