Nvidia Reports Wednesday, Kospi Down 3.5% as Asia De-risks

Nvidia reports Q2 FY27 Wednesday with $313B in market cap on the line. Kospi fell 3.5% as Asia de-risked chips. PCE, Warsh follow.

TLDR

Nvidia reports Q2 FY27 after the US close on Wednesday, August 26, with the call at 2:30 AM IST Thursday. It is the largest single earnings event of the quarter. Options are pricing roughly a 6% single-day move, which at Nvidia’s $5.28 trillion market cap works out to a $313 billion swing on the tape. Consensus revenue sits at $92.16 billion versus the company’s own $91.0 billion guide midpoint, with the Q3 whisper near $105 billion. NVDA closed Friday at $214.72, down for six straight sessions and 9% below the May high of $236.54.

Asia sold chips hard on Monday ahead of the print. Kospi lost 3.5% to 6,664.36, giving back a chunk of Thursday’s SK Hynix and Samsung driven rally. Kioxia dropped 6.6%, Advantest 3.8%, SoftBank 5.1%. Nikkei 225 slipped 0.6% to 65,623, Hang Seng fell 2.1% to 25,465, only ASX 200 bucked the trend at +0.5%. The week does not slow from here. Treasury Secretary Bessent details fresh Iran sanctions today, July PCE prints Wednesday morning before Nvidia, and Jackson Hole runs Thursday to Friday, capped by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first keynote as Chair on Friday at 7:30 PM IST.

Market Regime

US indices closed Friday higher on a broad relief bid, but the tape still capped a rough week. The S&P 500 rose 0.43% to 7,674.37 and gave back 1.4% on the week, snapping a three-week winning streak. Nasdaq Composite rose 0.43% to 26,180.45 and shed 2.1% on the week. Dow Industrials added 517.80 points, or 0.98%, to 53,277.01, but posted its second straight weekly loss, the steepest since March. Russell 2000 finished at 3,017.87, up 0.87% on the day. Volatility cooled into the close with VIX at 15.13, down 5.5%. The 30-year Treasury yield touched its highest reading since 2007 mid-week near 5.3% and drifted back only after Treasury doubled its bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation on Wednesday, with Bessent hinting at more Thursday.

The setup into this week is single-name earnings risk on Wednesday, inflation risk Wednesday morning, and Fed independence plus rate-path risk on Friday. Nvidia carries about 7% of the S&P 500 weight and 10% of Nasdaq 100 weight, so the earnings print is index-moving on its own. September hike odds sit near 35% and December odds near 66%, and Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote as Chair sets the anchor for both. The tape is calm going in. It does not stay calm through Wednesday night.

Bullish Factors

• Nvidia’s Q1 FY27 was a record $81.6 billion in revenue, up 85% year on year, with Data Center at $75.2 billion, up 92%. The company has beaten its own guide for 13 quarters running.
• The $91 billion Q2 guide assumed zero Data Center compute revenue from China. H200 shipments to ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba and JD have started at roughly 10,000 chips each per Financial Times reporting, and any recognized China revenue is upside to the number.
• Vera Rubin is in full production and shipments begin in Q3. Nvidia announced a $6 billion Poolside AI investment ahead of the print, adding another anchor customer to the pipeline.
• Treasury doubled bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation last week and left the door open to more. That is a direct rate-side cushion for long-duration growth equities into Wednesday.
• Crypto ran independently of the rates story last week. Bitcoin touched $76,000 (+20% on the week), CRCL closed Thursday at $83.95 (+6.79%), COIN +8.19%, MSTR +6.62%, on the White House Clarity Act push.

Bearish Factors

• Consensus is $92.16 billion, only $1.16 billion above Nvidia’s own guide midpoint. Beat margin has compressed from 22.8% in Q2 FY24 to 4.6% in Q1 FY27. There is very little room for a soft-side surprise.
• The Q3 guide matters more than Q2 itself. The whisper number is close to $105 billion. Anything materially below that reads as AI capex deceleration and can drop the stock even on a clean Q2 beat.
• Nvidia has closed lower after each of its last four earnings reports. NVDA also entered the print on a six-session losing streak, down 4.1% in the last ten sessions.
• Semis led the selling last week. VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell more than 4%, the Mag 7 shed over 1%, and momentum stocks lost about 4%.
• Bloomberg reported Nvidia customers were warned about 15%+ AI server price hikes, and Reuters followed. That reframes the gross margin story if Colette Kress does not address it directly on the call.
• Thirty-year yields sit near two-decade highs. A hot July PCE Wednesday morning reads as fuel for another duration leg up, and long-duration tech takes the hit first.

Asian Markets This Morning

Kospi closed down 3.5% at 6,664.36, the sharpest single-day drop in the region. Samsung and SK Hynix gave back part of Thursday’s SK Hynix buyback rally, and global funds sold chip exposure ahead of Wednesday. Nikkei 225 lost 0.6% to 65,623 with the chip and AI names taking the largest hits: Kioxia down 6.6%, Advantest down 3.8%, SoftBank Group down 5.1%, Fujikura and Furukawa Electric each down 5.1%, Lasertec down 0.9%. Financial names softened alongside, with Mitsubishi UFJ down 0.5% and Toyota down 0.3%. Hang Seng dropped 2.1% to 25,465, Shanghai Composite gave up 0.7% to 3,877, Taiwan Taiex fell 0.5%. Australia’s ASX 200 bucked the pattern at 9,107.40, up 0.5% on resource and financial strength. The read across the region is clear. Asia is trading Nvidia risk as its dominant Monday input, not the PCE print or Warsh.

What Moved Wall Street Friday

Friday closed a rough week on a positive tick. S&P 500 finished at 7,674.37, up 0.43% but down 1.4% for the week. Nasdaq Composite added 0.43% to 26,180.45 and shed 2.1% on the week, ending a three-week winning streak. Dow Industrials rose 0.98% to 53,277.01 for a second straight weekly loss. Russell 2000 gained 0.87% to 3,017.87. VIX cooled to 15.13, down 5.5%. Health care led the week on the Moderna cancer prevention print, with the sector adding more than 4% and Moderna itself pushing +176% Wednesday regular hours. Tech was the worst weekly sector, with Meta down about 7%, Nvidia down 6 straight sessions, and the Mag 7 as a group off more than 1%. Bond volatility drove the sector rotation. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the department could further increase the $4 billion per operation buybacks announced Wednesday, but the mid-week 30-year yield spike above 5.3% did most of the damage before the buyback take effect. Brent held between $91 and $93 on Iran and Bitcoin closed the week around $76,000.

Assets in Focus

NVDA

Closed Friday at $214.72, market cap $5.28 trillion, 9.2% below the May $236.54 high. Options price a 6% earnings move and a $313 billion market cap swing. Consensus lands at $92.16 billion in revenue and about $2.09 EPS, versus the company’s own $91.0 billion guide. What matters most on the call: the Q3 guide (whisper $105 billion), gross margins near 75%, Vera Rubin ramp commentary, and any change in the China H200 line from Jensen Huang. Written CFO commentary from Colette Kress hits investor.nvidia.com around 1:50 AM IST Thursday, with the call at 2:30 AM IST.

AMD

Closed Friday at $473.25. The most direct read-across from Wednesday night. A Q3 guide above $105 billion reads as bullish AI capex for AMD’s MI350 and MI400 pipeline. A guide below reads as pipeline pressure, and AMD wears the second-order pain.

BABA

Reported Q1 FY27 last week with revenue at $39.96 billion (a narrow beat) but EPS of $1.27, missing by 25% on margin compression. Becomes a live H200 China read on Thursday morning IST: any Jensen guidance change on H200 shipments to Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent or JD flows straight into the ADR.

TSLA

Cybercab launch scheduled Aug 25, with sweepstakes closing Aug 23 and winners announced Aug 25. Nevada approved a 5,000 robotaxi permit last week. JPM lifted its price target to $445 after a factory visit. TSLA rose 3% last week for a third consecutive weekly gain, running on a unit demand story in parallel to the macro.

CRCL

Closed Thursday at $83.95, up 6.79%, on the Clarity Act push and Bitcoin’s move above $75,000. Weekend BTC pushed past $78,000 into Friday premarket. Crypto is running independently of the rates and Fed story this week, and CRCL is the cleanest listed proxy for USD stablecoin flow ahead of the Clarity Act vote.

Index Levels to Watch

S&P 500 held its 20-day moving average through last week’s chop. Reference support sits near 7,600, the week’s low; reference resistance at 7,745, Wednesday’s high. Nasdaq 100 sits between two moving averages per the Vantage feed, with the 200-period near 29,265 and the 50-period near 29,421. Nasdaq Composite intraday reference support at 25,970, resistance at 26,300. Nikkei 225 broke 66,000 today, with 65,000 the next psychological support. Kospi 200 is giving back to 6,600, with 6,500 the next reference below. VIX cash 15.13 into the week, with the 200-day near 17.30 as the reference level above.

Disclaimer

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