Kospi ripped 4.7% and Nikkei rose 3.3% overnight as the AI trade rebounded. Wall Street braces for Tesla, Alphabet, and IBM Wednesday after the close.
TLDR
Kospi ripped 4.7 percent overnight to 6,821.41 and Nikkei jumped 3.26 percent to 66,232.19 as Samsung and SK Hynix rebounded, snapping the AI-hardware bleed that took Korea down 20 percent over the past month. Wall Street closed lower Monday as Iran risk and the 10th straight night of US strikes pushed oil briefly to 90 dollars. US futures are firm this morning after mediators floated a 10-day ceasefire proposal, and the whole tape is now positioning for Wednesday after the close, when Tesla, Alphabet, and IBM all print at once, the single biggest earnings block of Q2 season.
Market Regime
The regime this morning is a technical bounce built on two things: a partial unwind of last week’s chip-driven selloff in Asia, and a small ceasefire premium in Wall Street futures after Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said negotiations remained on the table. Neither of those is a directional signal on its own. The Kospi bounced 4.7 percent after falling 4.5 percent the day before. Nikkei rebounded 3.26 percent after a 6.4 percent weekly plunge. That is mean reversion, not a change of trend.
The real regime shift happens Wednesday night IST. Alphabet reports at 4:30 PM ET, which is around 2:00 AM IST Thursday for the release, with the call at 5:00 AM IST. Tesla reports at 5:30 PM ET, which is around 3:00 AM IST Thursday. IBM reports the same window at 5:00 PM ET. Options desks are pricing a 5.3 percent move on Alphabet, 7.6 percent on Tesla, and IBM is still working out from under its July 14 collapse. LSEG has S&P 500 semiconductor sector Q2 earnings tracking up 133 percent year on year, so the bar is high, and this is the first quarter where the market gets to test whether Big Tech AI spending is still funding a real revenue cycle or beginning to compress margins.
Bullish Factors
- Kospi rebounded 4.7 percent to 6,821.41, with Samsung Electronics up 7.4 percent and SK Hynix up 6.4 percent. The rebound came after Kospi fell 4.5 percent Monday and shed more than 20 percent over the past month on AI bubble profit-taking.
- Nikkei 225 rose 3.26 percent to 66,232.19 on the reopen after Monday’s holiday, recovering part of last week’s 6.4 percent plunge. Topix added 2.44 percent to 4,014.95.
- US futures are firm ahead of the open: Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.3 percent and S&P 500 futures rose 0.5 percent in the early Tuesday session as the AI trade bounced back.
- Ceasefire optics improved. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed intermediaries continued to exchange messages with Iran, and reports say mediators are pushing a 10-day ceasefire framework. Oil eased on the headlines.
- VIX fell 5.84 percent to 17.56 Monday, suggesting the tape is not pricing tail risk despite the Iran headlines.
- LSEG forecasts S&P 500 semiconductor and related sector Q2 earnings growth of 133 percent year on year, one of the strongest sector prints of the season, which sets a real fundamental floor under any chip rebound if the numbers hold.
Bearish Factors
- The US carried out a 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran overnight, targeting military command centers, air defense, coastal surveillance, missile and drone launch sites. Any breakdown in ceasefire talks pushes oil straight back toward 90 dollars.
- The Dow lost 307 points Monday, or 0.59 percent, to close at 51,839.26, weighed down by a 2 percent drop in Apple. That is a heavy component being sold in front of the July 30 Apple earnings print.
- Bond yields drifted higher with oil, tightening real-rate conditions into an earnings week where every big-cap AI print has to justify a P/E in the 30s or higher.
- IBM opens the Wednesday session at around 212 dollars, still testing 213.61 Fibonacci support after the July 14 25 percent crash on the preliminary Q2 warning. A soft call from IBM Wednesday night gets cross-read into the entire enterprise software complex, especially the SaaS names that trade on the same AI-budget-rotation risk.
- Tesla enters earnings week trading around 380, below its 50-period and 100-period EMAs, down 15.6 percent year to date and roughly 15 percent below the average analyst price target of 588. Options desks are split and the setup is fragile going into the print.
Asian Markets This Morning
Korea was the standout. Kospi finished up 4.7 percent at 6,821.41, one of its biggest single-day rallies of the year. Samsung Electronics rallied 7.4 percent and SK Hynix rallied 6.4 percent, undoing about half of Monday’s 4.5 percent slide when the same two names had led the sell. The Kospi remains up more than 50 percent for the year but is down more than 20 percent from its recent peak, a technical setup where profit-taking and mean reversion can coexist for weeks.
Japan reopened after Monday’s holiday and immediately caught the same tape. Nikkei 225 closed up 3.26 percent at 66,232.19, gaining 2,091 points. Topix added 2.44 percent to 4,014.95. The rebound only recovers a portion of last week’s 6.4 percent Nikkei loss, and a fund manager told Jiji Press that the bounce felt somewhat unsatisfactory given how much space traders have to close before Wednesday’s US prints. Australia’s ASX 200 was up modestly and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was roughly flat with mainland tech leading gains.
What Moved Wall Street Yesterday
Monday closed lower across the board on Iran and oil, cushioned by a small chip stabilization. S&P 500 fell 0.19 percent to 7,443.28. Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.05 percent to 25,508.07, effectively flat as chip names steadied after last week’s rout. Dow Jones lost 307.16 points, or 0.59 percent, to 51,839.26, with Apple down about 2 percent as the biggest single drag. Russell 2000 fell 0.67 percent to 2,942.43, back below the 3,000 line. VIX dropped 5.84 percent to 17.56, an unusual combination with a lower tape but consistent with the pattern of headline volatility fading as ceasefire chatter picks up.
Sector-wise, Nvidia and SanDisk steadied after their sharp drops last week. Alphabet gained 1.36 percent into its own earnings print. Microsoft added 2.21 percent, one of the strongest Dow components. Chevron gained 1.24 percent on the oil bid. Merck, Sherwin-Williams and Boeing led the decliners. Intel confirmed a new round of US layoffs as part of its ongoing restructuring, mostly in California and Oregon, ahead of Thursday’s Q2 earnings.
Assets in Focus
TSLA — Tesla Reports Wednesday After the Close
Tesla reports Q2 2026 after the market closes Wednesday, July 22, which lands around 3:00 AM IST Thursday for Indian traders. Delivery numbers are already public and set the bar high. Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles and delivered 480,126 units, up 25 percent year on year, well ahead of the roughly 406,000-unit consensus. Energy storage deployments jumped to 13.5 gigawatt-hours from 8.8 in Q1. The number that decides how the stock trades is not deliveries. It is automotive gross margin, the Cybercab timeline, and Elon Musk’s guidance on the 25 billion dollar AI capex plan. Consensus revenue lands in a wide 26.4 to 27.58 billion dollar range. Non-GAAP EPS consensus sits around 0.55. Options are pricing a 7.6 percent move, below Tesla’s long-term post-earnings average swing of 9 percent.
GOOGL — Alphabet Reports the Same Wednesday Window
Alphabet reports the same evening at 4:30 PM ET, which is around 2:00 AM IST Thursday for the release with the call at roughly 5:00 AM IST. Consensus is 116.84 billion dollars in revenue with EPS around 2.89 dollars. Options are pricing a 5.3 percent move. The dominant question is whether Google Cloud can sustain the 63 percent year-on-year growth rate posted in Q1, when Cloud revenue hit 20 billion dollars and backlog nearly doubled sequentially to a record 462 billion. Complicating the reported number is Alphabet’s 14 percent stake in Anthropic, marked up sharply this quarter, which one Wall Street bank now expects to push GAAP EPS closer to 8 dollars. That number, if it prints, has nothing to do with how Google’s actual business performed.
IBM — IBM Reports Its Full Q2 the Same Night
IBM reports full Q2 results Wednesday after the close, having already preannounced. The preliminary print on July 14 showed 17.2 billion dollars in revenue against 17.86 billion expected and 2.93 dollars in adjusted EPS against 3.01 expected, and the stock lost about 60 billion dollars in market cap that day. IBM opens the Wednesday session near 212 dollars, testing 213.61 Fibonacci support, with a securities fraud investigation now open into alleged pipeline manipulation. The Wednesday call has to address deal timing, updated full-year guidance, AI software momentum, and free cash flow. A soft print here cross-reads directly into the SaaS software complex on Thursday’s open.
Samsung and SK Hynix — Overnight Leaders on the Bounce
Samsung Electronics rallied 7.4 percent and SK Hynix rallied 6.4 percent Tuesday, the two heaviest weights in the Kospi and the direct read-through to the memory cycle. SK Hynix now trades in Seoul and on the Nasdaq as SKHY after its July 13 permanent listing debut. Both names remain under pressure over the past month as the market debates whether AI memory pricing has already peaked. Watch how they trade Thursday morning IST after the US prints land.
Intel — Reports Thursday After the Close
Intel reports Q2 2026 Thursday after the US close, which is Friday around 2:30 AM IST. The setup is unusual. INTC is up 163 percent year to date but down 17 percent in the past month. Options are pricing a 15 percent swing on the print. Consensus revenue is 14.4 billion and EPS 0.10. The 18A-P process is in risk production and Apple and Microsoft are foundry partners. The company confirmed further US layoffs Monday, mostly in California and Oregon. Any Q3 revenue guide above 14 billion is the number to watch.
Index Levels to Watch
The following are reference points for context, not entry or exit signals.
Oil WTI: briefly touched 90 dollars Monday on Iran, retreated as ceasefire talks resumed. A close above 90 dollars this week feeds directly into the July FOMC framing on July 28 to 29.
S&P 500: closed Monday at 7,443.28. First reference support at 7,400. Above, 7,457.69 marks Friday’s close, and 7,500 is the psychological reclaim level that decides how the market treats Wednesday’s prints.
Nasdaq Composite: closed at 25,508.07. Reference support at 25,500 held Monday. Above, 25,818.69 from July 8 and 26,000 as the reclaim ceiling.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: closed at 51,839.26. Reference support at 51,839, then 51,500. Upside marker at 52,146.42, Friday’s close, and 52,637.01 as the reclaim level.
Russell 2000: closed at 2,942.43, back below the 3,000 line. Watch whether the small caps reclaim 3,000 on Tuesday’s tape, since that is a broader risk-on read than the mega-cap indices alone.
Nikkei 225: closed at 66,232.19. Reference support at 64,140 from Friday’s low, resistance at 70,000.
Kospi: closed at 6,821.41. Reference support at 6,500, resistance at 7,000.
Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice and should not be treated as a buy, sell, or hold recommendation for any security or financial product. Trading in futures and similar instruments involves significant risk including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. Why did the Kospi rally 4.7 percent overnight?
The Kospi jumped 4.7 percent to 6,821.41 after Monday's 4.5 percent decline, driven by a technical rebound in the two names that had led the sell, Samsung Electronics up 7.4 percent and SK Hynix up 6.4 percent. Bargain hunting and short covering on AI-hardware names dominated the tape after Korea shed more than 20 percent over the past month. This is not a change in trend. It is mean reversion inside a broader debate about whether the AI memory cycle has peaked.
Q2. What are the key US catalysts today and tomorrow?
Today is a pre-market print day. General Motors and 3M report before the US open. Focus then shifts entirely to Wednesday, July 22 after the close, when three major companies report at once. IBM releases its full Q2 at 5:00 PM ET, roughly 2:30 AM IST Thursday. Alphabet releases at 4:30 PM ET, roughly 2:00 AM IST Thursday, with the call at 5:00 AM IST. Tesla releases around 5:30 PM ET, roughly 3:00 AM IST Thursday. Intel follows Thursday after the close.
Q3. What does the options market imply for Wednesday's prints?
At-the-money straddles expiring after earnings currently price a roughly 5.3 percent move on Alphabet and a roughly 7.6 percent move on Tesla. Tesla's implied move is actually below its long-term post-earnings swing of about 9 percent, which is consistent with the market pricing that the delivery beat is already known and that the surprise value is on margin, Cybercab, and AI capex commentary rather than the top line. IBM will trade off tone and full-year guide rather than a headline number, since the preliminary print already dropped.
Q4. What is the Iran situation into today's US open?
The US completed its ninth to tenth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, according to Central Command. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters that intermediaries continued to exchange messages and negotiations could be pursued based on national interests. Reports also indicate mediators are pushing a 10-day ceasefire framework. Oil eased on those headlines Tuesday morning after Monday's brief touch of 90 dollars per barrel.
