The Triple Print: Alphabet, Tesla, IBM Report Wednesday Night

Alphabet, IBM, and Tesla report after Wednesday’s close. Deliveries and IBM’s numbers are known, so tonight is a guidance story after Tuesday’s chip bounce.

TLDR

Wall Street snapped a three-day losing streak on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.89% to 7,509.20, the Nasdaq up 1.29% to 25,837.21, and the Dow up 0.74% to 52,224.64. Chipmakers led the bounce after Nvidia disclosed a stake in Nebius, 3M jumped 7.6% on an earnings beat, and General Motors added roughly 5%. That rebound now runs into the tape’s biggest earnings night of the quarter. Alphabet, IBM, and Tesla all report after the closing bell Wednesday, staggered from 4:30 PM ET through 5:30 PM ET, which lands around 2:00 to 3:00 AM IST Thursday. Deliveries are known for Tesla and headline numbers are pre-announced for IBM, so both prints are guidance stories. Alphabet is the only clean beat-or-miss line.

Market Regime

The tape is trading two narratives at once. The near-term regime is a chip-led relief rally: semiconductors bounced hard on Tuesday after last week’s rout, the Nvidia and Nebius disclosure gave the AI infra trade a fresh talking point, and LSEG now models Q2 semiconductor earnings growing 133% year over year. Roughly 88% of the 66 S&P 500 names that have reported so far have topped the bottom line, and the growth expectation for the full second quarter has ticked up to 25%. That is the reason the Russell 2000 outperformed on Tuesday and the VIX still sits at 17.58 despite the earnings gauntlet ahead.

The medium-term regime is uglier. IBM already told the Street last week that enterprise software budgets are shifting toward AI-driven storage and memory, and mainframe demand slipped. That warning removed a load-bearing beam from the broad software rally. Tonight’s Alphabet, IBM, and Tesla prints will decide whether Tuesday’s bounce holds into month-end or whether the tape rolls over into the FOMC and Big Tech results that follow next week. Guidance is the swing factor, not the print.

Bullish Factors

• Chip breadth returned: Nasdaq +1.29%, Nvidia +2% on the Nebius stake disclosure, and a broader AI infrastructure bid that pulled Kioxia, Advantest, and SK Hynix higher overnight.
• Earnings math is holding: 88% of S&P names reporting so far have beaten on the bottom line, and Q2 growth expectations have moved up to 25%, per FactSet.
• Tesla volume story is intact: record 480,126 Q2 deliveries, up 25% year over year, first year-over-year growth in two quarters, and inventory drew down by roughly 28,000 units.
• Alphabet capex conviction: 2026 capex guide raised to $180 to $190 billion signals continued build-out for Gemini and Google Cloud, with FSD-style demand upside if the Cloud growth rate holds near Q1’s 63%.
• Oil back to easing: reports of a 10-day US-Iran ceasefire proposal pulled Brent off its earlier spike and put a cap on the near-term inflation story.

Bearish Factors

• IBM overhang: the July 14 pre-announcement wiped out $70 billion in market cap in a single session, IBM’s worst day since 1968, and Barclays and Stifel have already cut price targets to $288 and $235 respectively.
• Tesla revenue could fall year over year: with the delivery beat priced in, both consensus tracks ($25.7B to $26.4B street, $27.35B Tesla-compiled) sit below Q2 2025 revenue, suggesting price cuts are structural.
• Options are pricing pain: roughly 6% to 7.6% implied moves on TSLA and IBM after the close, so a single guidance surprise could flip Tuesday’s index gains overnight.
• Gemini 3.5 Pro slipped: Google shipped lightweight Gemini updates on Monday but delayed the flagship, and Reuters framed the delay as a spending concern heading into Alphabet’s print.
• Iran risk is not off the table: US gasoline at $4.01 versus a $2.98 pre-war baseline, and Brent still above $90, keep the geopolitical premium sitting on top of every index.

Asian Markets This Morning

Asia traded mixed after Tuesday’s Wall Street bounce, with regional charts still digesting last week’s semi rout and the yen weakness that has priced into Japanese exporter revenues. The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2% to 66,115.60, giving back a fraction of Tuesday’s 3.26% rip. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.7% to 6,797.70, with chip names extending Tuesday’s gains: Kioxia was again a top mover after leading Tokyo’s Tuesday session with a 17.2% surge. The Hang Seng dropped 1.1% to around 24,867 as Chinese tech rolled over ahead of the US earnings gauntlet. Shanghai was flat at 3,861. The Sensex fell 0.92% to 76,755, weighed by IT names tracking IBM’s post-warning weakness. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.3% to 8,823.

What Moved Wall Street Today

Tuesday’s session was a chip-led rebound with support from a clean set of earnings beats. Nvidia added around 2% after disclosing a stake in Nebius, extending the AI infrastructure narrative that had been rattled by last week’s semi rout. 3M jumped 7.6% after Q2 came in ahead of expectations, and General Motors rose nearly 5% on a top and bottom line beat. Communication Services led the S&P by sector, up 0.7%. Health Care was the weakest, down 1.2%, with West Pharmaceutical Services off 2.1%. Small caps outperformed the majors: the Russell 2000 added 1.53% to 2,987.40, closing back within reach of the 3,000 psychological line. The VIX ticked up 3.11% to 17.58, unusual on a green tape, reflecting hedging demand ahead of the after-hours triple print. WTI settled near $83.80 and Brent near $90.66, both up modestly, with gasoline at a $4.01 national average.

Assets in Focus

Tesla (TSLA)

TSLA closed Tuesday at $378.93, up 2.53%, ahead of the AMC print. Q2 deliveries at a record 480,126 units are the known base, up 25% year over year and 18% above the pre-print consensus of roughly 407,000. Production came in at 451,758, so inventory drew down. The debate is on the P&L. Consensus EPS lands between $0.42 and $0.55 depending on the source, revenue estimates sit at $25.7 to $27.4 billion, and both revenue tracks land below Q2 2025. The single most important number is automotive gross margin ex-credits: 18% to 20% keeps the growth story intact, below 16% and the margin compression narrative reasserts itself. Watch the Cybercab timeline commentary, updated FSD subscription count (1.28 million at Q1), Robotaxi expansion beyond Miami and Austin, and any concrete update on the Berlin capacity ramp to roughly 7,500 vehicles per week. Options are pricing a 6% to 7.6% move.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

GOOGL closed at $349.68, down 0.66%, with GOOG at $346.19. Consensus sees EPS near $2.87 and revenue near $117 billion. The variable this quarter is Google Cloud, which grew 63% in Q1; anything in the high 50s or above sustains the enterprise AI narrative, anything below the mid-50s reads as deceleration. Capex guidance sits at $180 to $190 billion for 2026, and free cash flow contracted 47% in Q1, so the market wants to see whether that compression widens. A wrinkle: Alphabet’s roughly 14% Anthropic stake was marked up sharply in the quarter, and at least one bank thinks that alone could push reported GAAP EPS near $8, mostly non-cash. Read past the headline to the operating income line.

IBM (IBM)

IBM closed at $210.50, down 1.17%, still roughly 35% below the June $329 high. Headline numbers are already out from the July 14 pre-announcement: $17.2 billion revenue up 1%, operating EPS $2.93, GAAP EPS $2.27, Software up 5%, Consulting flat, Infrastructure down 7%. Tonight is entirely about the follow-up. Watch four things: full-year guidance for 2026, organic software growth stripped of the Confluent contribution, a concrete number on delayed deals that have since closed, and whether the mainframe capex shift is characterized as one quarter or structural. Options are pricing a 7% move.

Nvidia (NVDA)

NVDA gained roughly 2% Tuesday after disclosing a stake in Nebius, effectively vertical-integrating into a neocloud provider. The move gives the broader semiconductor and AI infrastructure trade a fresh catalyst just as the sector is trying to recover from last week’s rout. NVDA does not report until August 26, but any mention of Nvidia allocation, TPU dependence, or hyperscaler capex from Alphabet or IBM tonight will move the name in after hours.

Index Levels to Watch

Reference points for context, not entry or exit signals. Nasdaq 100 sits near record territory with 25,837 on the composite; the round-number line at 26,000 is the visible ceiling. S&P 500 at 7,509 is 3% above its 50-day moving average, and 7,400 is the near-term structural floor. Dow at 52,224 has 52,500 as the next resistance shelf, with 51,500 as support. Russell 2000 at 2,987 is testing the 3,000 line for the second time this month. On single names, TSLA’s chart puts support at $369 and resistance at $387, GOOGL support at $340 and resistance at $360, IBM support at $205 and resistance at $220.

Disclaimer

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