Macro Overview
- IMF’s View on El Salvador and Bitcoin: Rodrigo Valdes, Director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, stated that their relations with El Salvador have been productive. While discussing whether a change in Bitcoin’s status was part of their discussions, Valdes refrained from specifying exact measures but emphasized that the IMF does not consider Bitcoin as legal tender and generally does not support it. El Salvador’s government did not provide any comment regarding the removal of Bitcoin’s legal tender status.
- US FOMC Meeting Minutes: During the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Federal Reserve officials expressed a range of views regarding the necessity for further interest rate hikes. However, the prevailing consensus suggests that there is a likelihood of at least one more interest rate increase before the end of this year.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data: The consumer price index increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.7% year-on-year. This exceeded the forecasts of 0.3% and 3.6%, respectively. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, showed a 0.3% monthly increase and a 4.1% rise on a 12-month basis. These figures aligned precisely with expectations. The consumer price index measures changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) Data: The producer price index for September increased by 0.5%, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of a 0.3% rise. When excluding food and energy, core PPI showed a 0.3% increase, in line with the expected 0.2%. Inflation pressures primarily stemmed from final demand goods, which surged by 0.9% on a monthly basis, while services increased by 0.3%. The producer price index measures changes in the prices of finished goods and services sold by producers.
Crypto Markets Overview
- Market Movement: This week, the crypto markets experienced a major -3.70% decline, bringing the total market capitalization to $1.027 trillion. Notably, BTC saw a fall of -3.11% and ETH saw a decline of -5.10%. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 50.95%, while Ethereum’s holds at 18.11%.
- US SEC Does Not Appeal Decision on Grayscale Bitcoin ETF: The US SEC has chosen not to appeal a court decision regarding Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF. This decision opens the way for the SEC to review Grayscale’s application. It’s worth noting that other asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity have similar filings pending with the SEC for a spot Bitcoin ETF, with decisions expected by next year. Following this news, Market went slight up.
- Mastercard’s Successful CBDC Wrapping Trial: Mastercard has successfully completed a trial involving the wrapping of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) on different blockchains, similar to wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC) and wrapped Ether (wETH).
- Whales Accumulate Highest BTC Amount in 2023: According to Santiment, Whales have been accumulating a significant amount of Bitcoin in 2023. This accumulation is largely attributed to the multitude of requests made to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF.
- Ferrari Partners with BitPay for Crypto Payments: Ferrari, the iconic luxury car brand, is embracing cryptocurrency payments in the US, with plans to expand to Europe. This decision was prompted by increased market demand and requests from their dealers. Ferrari has noticed growing interest from tech-savvy, young investors in digital currencies.
Top Tokens Update
- Ethereum Foundation Sells ETH for USDC: On October 9, the Ethereum (ETH) Foundation sold 1,700 ETH and exchanged it for 2.7 USD Coin (USDC), as reported by on-chain data from Arkham Intelligence. This move was not sudden, as the foundation had sent the coins from its Gnosis Safe Proxy wallet five days prior. The price of ETH saw a decline following this news.
- Bitcoin Lightning Network Experiences 1,200% Growth in 2 Years: The Bitcoin Lightning Network has witnessed remarkable growth, surging by 1,200% in just two years. This increasing acceptance of Lightning technology is poised to strengthen Bitcoin’s role as a medium of exchange.
- Microsoft’s Acquisition of Activision and Implications for Metaverse and Crypto in Gaming: Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard, the largest in gaming history, has the potential to catalyze the integration of cryptocurrency in gaming and the expansion of the metaverse. Notably, Top Gaming tokens like IMX, SAND, and GALA are listed on CoinDCX App.
- Immutable Partners with Amazon Web Services: Immutable, a blockchain gaming platform, has joined forces with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to expand opportunities for game developers. Immutable has added AWS to its independent software vendors Accelerate Program, which focuses on organizations providing software solutions that run or integrate with AWS.
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| Oct 18 | 11:30 AM | UK CPI y/y |
No consistent effect – there are both inflationary and growth implications
|
| Oct 19 | 6:00 PM | US Unemployment Claims |
Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
| Oct 19 | 9:30 PM | US Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
More dovish than expected is good for crypto
|
Note: “Events in red font signify severe impact, while those in yellow indicate moderate.”
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- BTC had a bearish trend earlier in the week but saw a partial recovery on Friday, driven by positive news regarding the SEC’s decision not to appeal the Grayscale legal win.
- Currently, BTC is trading within a range defined by two significant levels: $25,000 as major support and $28,000 as a major resistance.
- It’s worth noting that BTC is below both the 50 and 200 EMA on the daily chart, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market.
- On the upside, there’s resistance level at $27,160(previous week low), $28,000 and $28,580(previous week high).
- On the downside, there’s resistance level at $26,100, $25600 and $24,910.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- ETH recently reached a 7-month low, primarily influenced by a combination of negative factors, including news of the Ethereum foundation selling ETH worth millions.
- A concerning point is the declining ETH dominance, which is not a good sign for ETH and the general crypto market.
- Currently, ETH is hovering around a crucial support level at the previous month’s low, priced at $1530. If it falls below this level, there’s a risk of a more significant drop toward lower support levels.
- Additionally, ETH is currently trading below both the 50 and 200 EMA D (Exponential Moving Averages), indicating a bearish sentiment.
- There are resistance levels above at $1,607(previous week low), $1,694(previous month high), and $1,730-$1,750(0.382 Fibonnaci level and previous week high)
- On the downside, support can be found at a significant level at $1,481 (0.618 Fibonacci level) and $1,425.
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