State of the Crypto Markets

Macro Overview

• US Job Openings (Monthly): US Job Openings for the month measured at 9.61 million, surpassing the forecast of 8.81 million. More job openings tend to inject additional US dollars into the economy, which is often seen as unfavorable in the context of crypto. As it exceeded the forecast, this outcome is considered bearish for the crypto space.
• US Unemployment Rate: The US Unemployment Rate slightly exceeded the forecast, coming in at 3.8% instead of the expected 3.7%. Due to this inverse relationship, where higher unemployment can correlate with better crypto performance, this outcome is seen as slightly positive for the crypto space.
• US Non-Farm Employment Change The US Non-Farm Employment Change exceeded expectations by reaching 336,000 against the forecasted 171,000. In the context of crypto, an ‘Actual’ figure surpassing the ‘Forecast’ is generally considered less favorable, as it often has an inverse relationship with crypto performance.

Crypto Markets Overview

• Market Movement: This week, the crypto markets experienced a major 1.10% increase, bringing the total market capitalization to $1.073 trillion. Notably, BTC saw a rise of 2.70% and ETH saw a decline of -1.93%. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 50.78%, while Ethereum’s holds at 18.40%.
• Polygon Co-Founder Steps Down: Polygon co-founder, Jaynti Kanani, has announced his resignation in an October 4th Twitter thread. He plans to focus on new ventures while still contributing to Polygon’s development from a supporting role. Following this news, Polygon’s token, Matic, experienced a 4% decrease in value.
• Struggles for Ethereum Futures ETFs Launch: Despite the excitement surrounding the launch of nine Ethereum futures ETFs by VanEck, ProShares, and Bitwise on October 2, these ETFs have struggled to attract significant investment. On the first day of trading, the total trading volume for all nine ETFs was less than $2 million.
• Whales Accumulate Bitcoin in 2023: According to Santiment, Whales have significantly accumulated Bitcoin in 2023, partly due to the increased requests submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF.
• Grayscale Seeks to Convert Ethereum Trust to Spot ETF: Grayscale Investments has filed an application with the SEC to convert its Grayscale Ethereum Trust into a Spot Ethereum ETF, marking a significant development in the world of digital asset investing.
• Fake Satoshi Nakamoto Reappears on Twitter: An imposter using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, has surfaced on Twitter. The real identity of Bitcoin’s creator remains unknown.

Top Tokens Update

• Kenya Panel Recommends Shutdown of Worldcoin’s Crypto Project: A Kenyan parliamentary committee formed to investigate Worldcoin’s operations in the country has recommended its shutdown. This crypto project, led by Sam Altman, has faced scrutiny in Kenya.
• Solana Continues to Attract Institutional Investment: Institutional investors have been investing in Solana-focused investment products for the 27th week this year, with $21 million in inflows over the past week. This comes as digital asset investment products saw inflows for the first time in six weeks, and SOL’s value has increased by 20% in one month.
• Avalanche Sees Surge in Network Activity: Avalanche has experienced a remarkable increase in network activity, with a nearly 50% surge in transactions across all subnets since the beginning of the week. This surge led to increased gas usage, and the AVAX token has seen a 15% increase in value this week.
• Ripple Secures Victory as Judge Rejects SEC Appeal: In a significant development in the legal battle between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Judge Analisa Torres has denied the SEC’s attempt to appeal the Ripple ruling. This marks another legal win for Ripple, the blockchain payment company, in its fight against allegations of conducting an unregistered securities offering.

“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”

Note: “Events in red font signify severe impact, while those in yellow indicate moderate.”

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Summary: 

• BTC has delivered positive returns for the week, but it remains within a range below a robust resistance level at $28,000.
• A positive sign is that BTC is holding above both the 50 and 200 EMA D (Exponential Moving Averages).
• The RSI (Relative Strength Index) also indicates a positive outlook.
• On the downside, there’s significant support at around $25,000. Coinciding with levels – lows of the previous week and month.

Ethereum Technical Analysis

Summary: 

• Despite the positive news about ETH futures ETFs, ETH has seen a negative return this week, which suggests a lack of interest among investors.
• Additionally, ETH is currently trading below both the 50 and 200 EMA D (Exponential Moving Averages), indicating a bearish sentiment.
• To regain upside momentum, ETH needs to overcome a significant hurdle at the 0.382 fib level, which is at $1730.
• There are resistance levels above at $1,736(0.5 Fibonnaci level) and $1,796.
• On the downside, support can be found at $1,550 and a significant level at $1,481 (0.618 Fibonacci level).

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