Macro Overview
- US Federal Interest Rate Unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%: The US Federal Funds Rate held steady within the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, aligning with market expectations. This decision resulted in a neutral effect on the cryptocurrency market.
- US FOMC Statement: Possibility of Another Rate, During the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, hinted at the potential for another interest rate hike later in the year. Following this announcement, the cryptocurrency market experienced a slight downturn, indicating a negative impact on the crypto space due to concerns about rising interest rates.
- Weekly US Unemployment Claims: Weekly claims dropped to 201K, less than the forecasted 224K. This is not good news for crypto, as it’s below expectations and could have a bearish effect.
Crypto Markets Overview
- Market Movement: This week, the crypto markets experienced a slight 0.29% decline, bringing the total market capitalization to $1.033 trillion. Notably, BTC saw a rise of 0.15% and ETH saw a fall of -2.75%. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 50.13%, while Ethereum’s holds at 18.55%.
- Citi’s Blockchain Upgrade for Instant Global Transfers: Citi, a prominent financial institution, has unveiled Citi Token Services, a groundbreaking blockchain-based solution. This innovation allows the tokenization of client deposits, making it possible to transmit these funds across the globe instantaneously. This advancement marks a significant step in the utilization of blockchain technology within the traditional banking sector.
- Nomura’s Bitcoin Adoption Fund for Institutional Investors: Nomura, Japan’s largest investment bank, has introduced the Bitcoin Adoption Fund through its digital asset subsidiary, Laser Digital Asset Management. This fund is designed specifically for institutional investors, offering them direct exposure to Bitcoin. Nomura, with assets worth over $500 billion, aims to provide a range of digital adoption investment solutions in the future.
- Ethereum Staking Activity Hits Monthly High: Ethereum (ETH) saw a surge in staking activity on September 13th, reaching its highest daily point since July. Approximately 134,000 ETH was staked on that day, reflecting the commitment of validators who lock up their assets to earn ETH rewards from transaction fees. This trend emphasizes the significance of Ethereum’s network security and potential rewards for participants.
- Coinbase’s Layer-2 Solution Overtakes Ethereum in Transactions: Coinbase’s layer-2 scaling solution, known as Base, achieved a significant milestone by surpassing Ethereum in daily transaction count. On September 14th, Base processed 1.84 million transactions, exceeding Ethereum’s 1.28 million on the same day. This indicates the growing popularity and scalability of Coinbase’s solution.
- Grayscale Files for Ethereum Futures ETF: Grayscale Investments, a leading digital asset management company, has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the approval of a new exchange-traded fund (ETF). This ETF will track Ethereum futures, expanding Grayscale’s portfolio of cryptocurrency investment products.
Top Tokens Update
- Chainlink Integrates with Ethereum Layer-2 Arbitrum: Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) has integrated with Ethereum’s layer-2 solution, Arbitrum. This integration enables users to access secure cross-chain smart contract capabilities, potentially opening up new avenues for growth, accessibility, and innovation within the blockchain ecosystem.
- Polkadot Sees 40% Surge in Transaction Fees: Polkadot, a multi-chain network protocol, witnessed an impressive 40% growth in total transaction fees. These fees now constitute a substantial portion of the protocol’s revenue, underscoring its growing utility and demand for its services in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
- Balancer DeFi Protocol Faces $238,000 Crypto Theft: The decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol, Balancer, recently experienced a security breach resulting in the theft of approximately $238,000 worth of cryptocurrency assets. The attack targeted Balancer’s frontend, where the website generated approval transactions for a malicious contract. Despite this setback, Balancer’s total value locked in the protocol remained at $710 million, and the price of its governance token, BAL, only saw a modest decline of around 2%.
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| Sep 28 | 6:00 PM | US Final GDP q/q |
Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
| Sep 28 | 6:00 PM | US Unemployment Claims(weekly) |
Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
| Sep 29 | 1:30 AM | US Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
More dovish than expected is good for crypto
|
| Sep 29 | 6:00 PM | US Core PCE Price Index m/m |
Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
| Sep 29 | 7:30 PM | US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
Note: “Events in red font signify severe impact, while those in yellow indicate moderate.”
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- Bitcoin experienced some volatility this week due to macroeconomic events.
- In the 1-day timeframe, Bitcoin faced rejection from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
- Its current price is at $26,600, which is below the previous week’s high.
- Expectations suggest a period of sideways trading in the coming days.
- Bitcoin would need to surpass the $27,400 level to resume its upward trend.
- Conversely, if Bitcoin continues to decline, it might fall to $25,800 level.
- Additionally, Resistance levels are at $27300 and $28000. (Approx values)
- On the downside, there’s support at around $25,000. Coinciding with levels – lows of the previous week and month.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- Ethereum (ETH) in the 4-hour timeframe is encountering resistance from the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and experiencing a downward movement.
- In comparison to Bitcoin (BTC), ETH is showing a slightly bearish performance.
- The current price of ETH is above the $1,550 support level, which corresponds to the previous monthly low.
- For an upward trend, ETH needs to regain and move above the 200 SMA (in 4H TF).
- However, if ETH breaches the $1,550 support level, it could indicate a bearish trend ahead.
- There are resistance levels above at $1,670, $1,736, and $1,796.
- On the downside, support can be found at $1,550 and a significant level at $1,481 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
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