AMD Guides $17B as Democrats Win Congress and Tesla Slips

AMD jumps on a record quarter and a $17B outlook as Democrats win the House and Senate. Tesla slips, and Qualcomm and Arm report early Thursday IST.

TLDR

• AMD posted a record quarter. Sales rose 45% to $13.4B and it expects about $17B next quarter, up 66%. It trades near $514 on CoinDCX Global Futures, about 6% above Tuesday’s $483.90 close.
• Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, the Associated Press called. Nasdaq 100 futures fell as much as 2.4% on early results, then won back the losses.
• Tesla fell about 4.5% before the US open on worries about closer oversight of Elon Musk’s companies. SpaceX pre-IPO slipped about 1.7% on CoinDCX.
• Chips led a rebound on Tuesday. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.83% and the S&P 500 0.36%, ending a three-day losing streak.
• Qualcomm reports at 3:15 AM IST and Arm at 3:30 AM IST Thursday. The ADP jobs report and ISM services data land tonight.

Market Regime

For the first time in a week, a strong report got rewarded. AMD beat on sales and profit and guided well above forecasts, and the stock rose about 7% after hours. That matters because the past week belonged to the sellers: Alphabet, Amazon, Intel, Apple and Palantir all fell after reporting. AMD showed that investors will still pay for AI spending when it turns into sales this quickly, with data centre revenue up 97% in a year.

The election added a new question. Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and futures first fell on the early results before recovering. Markets now have to price what a Democratic Congress means for AI rules, data centres and companies with large government ties. Tesla and SpaceX took the first hit. Friday’s jobs report at 7:00 PM IST is the next big test, after job openings came in stronger than expected on Tuesday.

Bullish Factors

• AMD’s outlook. A guide of about $17B for next quarter, against about $16.23B expected, lifted the chip group.
• The election dip was bought. Nasdaq 100 futures won back a 2.4% drop as the results came in.
• Big Tech bounced. Microsoft rose 2.74%, Meta 2.36%, Nvidia 2.29% and Amazon 2.06% on Tuesday.
• Jobs are holding up. JOLTS job openings rose to 7.52M, a four-month high and above the 7.15M expected.
• Calmer markets. The VIX slipped 1.51% to 20.83.

Bearish Factors

• AI rules. A Democratic Congress could bring closer oversight of AI and data centres. Data centre names like IREN, Nebius and CoreWeave fell before the US open.
• Musk exposure. Tesla and SpaceX are seen as the most exposed to the new Congress.
• Beats still sold. Apple fell 1.90% and Palantir 1.65% on Tuesday, a second day of losses after their reports.
• Bond yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4 basis points to 4.95%.
• The Dow lagged. It fell 0.38% as money moved back into tech.

Asian Markets This Morning

Korea steadied after Tuesday’s sharp drop. KOSPI rose 0.62% to 5,683.80, a modest bounce after its 3.59% fall, as AMD’s outlook helped chip stocks in Seoul.

Japan caught up with the week’s tech losses. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.42% to 62,188.63 as Tokyo reopened after Tuesday’s public holiday, its first session since Kioxia’s 14% drop on Monday.

What Moved Wall Street Today

• US indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday. S&P 500 7,568.92 (+0.36%), Nasdaq Composite 25,372.01 (+0.83%), Dow 51,786.72 (-0.38%), Russell 2000 2,812.45 (+0.23%).
• AMD rose 3.65% in the regular session to $483.90, then about 7% after hours on its results.
• Microsoft rose 2.74%, Meta 2.36%, Nvidia 2.29% to $206.69 and Amazon 2.06%.
• Apple fell 1.90% and Palantir 1.65%, a second day of losses after their earnings beats.
• Tesla closed at $398.50 before the election results came in.
• JOLTS job openings rose 333,000 to 7.52M. WTI crude slipped 0.38% to $96.09 and Brent 1.12% to $103.60.

Assets in Focus

AMD

Sales rose 45% to a record $13.4B against about $13.06B expected, and profit per share was $2.09 against $1.94. Data centre sales rose 97% to $8.5B as its MI450 AI chips ramped up, and AMD said AI chip sales will pass its server chip sales. It expects about $17B next quarter, up 66%. Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle are already running its Helios AI racks. Tuesday’s $483.90 close and the 29 October close of $566.42 are reference points for context, not entry or exit signals.

TSLA (Tesla)

Tesla fell about 4.5% before the US open and trades near $383 on CoinDCX Global Futures. Investors expect closer scrutiny of its self-driving plans and of Musk’s government contracts, and talk of a Tesla and SpaceX merger has raised worries about dilution. The stock is more than 20% below its 52-week high of $498.83. Tuesday’s $398.50 close is the nearest reference point above.

SPCX (SpaceX Pre-IPO)

SpaceX slipped with Tesla on the election result and trades near $136 on CoinDCX, down about 1.7% in 24 hours. Merger talk with Tesla keeps it in the news. It is available on CoinDCX Global Futures as a Pre-IPO Perp.

NVDA (Nvidia)

Nvidia rose 2.29% to $206.69 on Tuesday and trades near $210 on CoinDCX Global Futures as chips rebounded on AMD’s results. Its 29 October close of $213.66 is the nearest reference point above. Nvidia reports on 18 November at 3:30 AM IST.

NSDQ100 (Nasdaq 100)

The Nasdaq 100 trades near 28,454 on CoinDCX Global Futures, about 1% above Tuesday’s 28,180 close, after futures fell as much as 2.4% on the first election results and then recovered. The 29 October close of 29,403 is the level from before last week’s selloff.

Index Levels to Watch

• S&P 500: 7,568.92 (+0.36%), with the 29 October close near 7,720 the reference point above.
• Nasdaq Composite: 25,372.01 (+0.83%), ending a three-day losing streak.
• Nasdaq 100: 28,180 at Tuesday’s close, trading near 28,454 on CoinDCX Global Futures.
• Dow Jones: 51,786.72 (-0.38%).
• KOSPI: 5,683.80 (+0.62%). Nikkei 225: 62,188.63 (-1.42%).
• VIX: 20.83 (-1.51%). US 10-year yield: 4.95%.

Disclaimer

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