Anthropic Pre-IPO Goes Live as Alphabet Sinks 11% on Capex

Anthropic pre-IPO trading goes live on CoinDCX as Alphabet sinks 11% on $51.4B capex and Microsoft rises on Azure. Amazon, Intel and SanDisk report tonight.

TLDR

• Anthropic pre-IPO trading is now live on the CoinDCX app, days after Anthropic filed publicly for a Nasdaq IPO. Its last private round valued it at $965B.
• Big Tech results split the market. Microsoft rose about 4.9% after hours on 48% Azure growth. Alphabet fell about 10.7% after hours despite a revenue beat, because capex hit $51.4B and free cash flow turned negative.
• The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote. Two officials wanted a hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh kept December open.
• The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,743.98 (+0.28%), but Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 1.1% this morning as Alphabet weighed.
• Tonight: US GDP and PCE inflation at 6:00 PM IST, then Amazon and Intel at 2:30 AM IST and SanDisk at 2:00 AM IST Friday.

Market Regime

Wall Street is now paying for AI growth it can see and punishing AI spending that runs ahead of cash. Microsoft showed Azure growing 48% and got rewarded. Alphabet showed Google Cloud more than doubling, but also $51.4B of quarterly capex and negative free cash flow, and lost about a tenth of its value after hours. Same theme, opposite verdicts, and the difference was cash.

The backdrop is tighter than the record close suggests. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Wednesday at 5.044%, its biggest daily rise since late September, oil is above $100, and two Fed officials voted for a hike. Amazon tonight is the next test of the new rule. Strong AWS growth with spending under control keeps the AI trade intact. A capex jump without matching growth would hand the Nasdaq a second Alphabet-style night.

Bullish Factors

• AI demand is real. Azure grew 48% to $33.2B and Google Cloud more than doubled.
• Records on Wall Street. The S&P 500 rose for a third straight day to 7,743.98, and the chip index gained 1.75%.
• Memory profits keep climbing. Samsung posted a record KRW 107.4T operating profit and SK Hynix a record KRW 83.3T.
• A calmer Fed than feared. Rates were held and Warsh did not commit to a December hike, calling the coming weeks information-rich.
• Volatility stayed low. The VIX fell 3.48% to 16.91 on Wednesday.
• Japan is strong. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.10% to 64,659 this morning.

Bearish Factors

• Spending fears. Alphabet showed that heavy AI spending can sink a stock even after a revenue beat.
• Software is under pressure. ServiceNow fell about 18% after hours on a mixed report.
• Rates are high. The 10-year yield rose 5.2 basis points to 5.044%, and Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a hike.
• Oil is expensive. WTI settled at $102.78 (+2.88%) and Brent at $115.32 (+1.26%).
• Korea cooled. KOSPI fell 1.24% after Wednesday’s 6.63% jump.

Asian Markets This Morning

Asia traded the memory story and the Alphabet story at the same time. Samsung reported a record KRW 107.4T operating profit, yet its shares fell in Seoul as traders locked in gains, and KOSPI slipped 1.24% after Wednesday’s 6.63% surge. SK Hynix also posted a record KRW 83.3T operating profit, which keeps the memory cycle firmly in the conversation ahead of SanDisk tonight.

Japan went the other way. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.10% to 64,659 ahead of Friday’s Bank of Japan decision. Kioxia, the Japanese memory maker, reports on Friday afternoon, giving Asia one more memory print before the week ends.

What Moved Wall Street Today

• The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted for a hike. The statement upgraded growth to “strong” and said inflation “remains elevated.”
• US indices closed higher. S&P 500 7,743.98 (+0.28%), Nasdaq Composite 26,549.85 (+0.27%), Dow 52,475.10 (+0.19%), Russell 2000 2,830.51 (+0.41%).
• Microsoft revenue rose 19% to $92.3B, above the $90.7B estimate. Shares rose about 4.9% after hours from a $531.01 close.
• Alphabet revenue rose 25% to $127.6B, but capex of $51.4B and free cash flow of minus $9.1B sent shares down about 10.7% after hours from $324.89.
• ServiceNow fell about 18% after hours on a mixed report. eBay rose about 4.5% on a sales beat.
• SanDisk rose 7.66% to $1,404.77 as memory stocks rallied into its results.

Assets in Focus

Anthropic (Pre-IPO)

Anthropic pre-IPO trading is now live on the CoinDCX app, so traders can take a view on Anthropic before it lists on the Nasdaq. The company filed publicly for its IPO on Monday after a private round valued it at $965B.

The number behind the interest: Anthropic now brings in $2.08 of revenue for every $1 it spends on AI compute, up from $0.57 a year ago. It is also one of the biggest buyers of the computing power that Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are reporting on this week. Pre-IPO prices can move sharply on news about the listing date and price range.

MSFT (Microsoft)

Revenue rose 19% to $92.3B and Azure grew 48% to $33.2B, ahead of the roughly 45% the company guided. Shares rose about 4.9% after hours to the $557 area. The 22 October close of $521.08 and the after-hours level near $557 are the reference points for context, not entry or exit signals.

GOOGL (Alphabet)

Revenue rose 25% to $127.6B and Google Cloud more than doubled, but $51.4B of capex and minus $9.1B of free cash flow drove a 10.7% after-hours drop. The after-hours area near $290 and Wednesday’s $324.89 close frame where the stock sits after the print.

AMZN (Amazon)

Amazon reports Q3 at 2:30 AM IST Friday, with analysts looking for about $202B in sales. After Alphabet, AWS growth and capex will decide the move. The stock closed Wednesday at $254.60 (+0.59%); the 23 October close of $248.00 and the 21 October close of $262.37 are recent reference points.

SNDK (SanDisk)

SanDisk rose 7.66% to $1,404.77 on Wednesday and reports at 2:00 AM IST Friday. Record memory profits from Samsung and SK Hynix set a high bar. Tuesday’s close of $1,304.84 is the nearest reference point below.

Index Levels to Watch

• S&P 500: 7,743.98, a record close after a third straight gain. Whether the index holds near this level after Alphabet is the first read on the AI trade.
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,549.85 (+0.27%). Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 1.1% this morning, so the open starts below Wednesday’s close.
• Dow Jones: 52,475.10 (+0.19%), less exposed to the Alphabet move.
• Nikkei 225: 64,659 (+1.10%), heading into Friday’s Bank of Japan decision.
• US 10-year yield: 5.044%, the level today’s GDP and PCE numbers can push either way.
• VIX: 16.91, low ahead of the busiest earnings night of the week.

Disclaimer

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