Bitcoin dropped below the psychological $80,000 threshold to trade near $79,837 on 29 October, declining 1.2% on the session after the US Federal Reserve held the benchmark federal funds rate steady while signaling active hawkish pressure.
The retreat from intraday highs above $81,000 followed a 10–2 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote on 28 October that revealed two dissenting governors pushing for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. With futures markets pricing in an ~85% probability of a rate hike in December, higher yields on cash equivalents and sovereign debt have diverted capital flows away from non-yielding digital assets.
Fed Holds Rates at 3.75% to 4% in a Split 10-2 Vote
At its 28 October meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, pausing after initiating a 25-basis-point increase in September, its first policy hike since July 2023.
Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, both preferring another quarter-point hike. The Fed’s statement upgraded its view of the economy, describing growth as “strong” after calling it “solid” in September, and said inflation “remained elevated.” Chair Kevin Warsh said, “It’s our responsibility to get inflation down.”
Why BTC Slipped as December Hike Odds Rose
Before the announcement, futures markets put the odds of a December rate hike above 80%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, and market reports put them near 85% afterward. Higher rates raise the return on cash and bonds, which compete for money with assets like bitcoin that pay no yield. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at about 5.05% after the decision.
CoinMarketCap’s AI summary tied BTC’s drop to investors selling riskier assets after the split vote. It also cited analyst Ali Martinez, who reported that large holders cut about 8,160 BTC from their balances in 24 hours.
The Critical Macro Calendar for BTC Traders
US spot bitcoin funds, which are exchange-traded funds that hold bitcoin directly, took in about $286 million on October 26 and 27. Those inflows came after two days of outflows totaling about $773 million, so fund demand has swung in both directions this month.
Two data releases come before the Fed’s next decision. The October jobs report is due on November 6, and October inflation data follows on November 10. September’s inflation reading was 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August. The Fed then meets on December 8 and 9, when it will also publish new economic projections.
Where Bitcoin (BTC) Stands After the Fed Meeting
Bitcoin trades just under $80,000, about 37% below its October 2025 record of $126,198. Markets expect a December rate hike, and the jobs and inflation reports due on November 6 and November 10 are the next data that could change those odds.
Disclaimer: Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions.
FAQs
1. Why is Bitcoin (BTC) down today?
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.2% to $79,837 on 29 October 2026 after the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in a split 10–2 vote, with two dissenting officials favoring an immediate rate hike. The hawkish stance lifted December rate hike odds to ~85%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding digital assets as Treasury yields hovered above 5.05%.
2. Did the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?
No, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October 2026 in a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase, following the central bank's initial post-cycle rate hike in September 2026.
3. When is the next Fed meeting?
The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 8–9 December 2026, where officials will vote on the benchmark rate and release an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Ahead of that meeting, the US October jobs report will be released on 6 November, followed by October CPI inflation data on 10 November.
4. Is Bitcoin (BTC) a good investment?
Whether Bitcoin (BTC) is a good investment depends on individual financial goals and risk tolerance. While BTC offers programmatic algorithmic scarcity with a fixed 21-million supply cap, it remains a volatile asset that trades roughly 37% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198 and experiences price sensitivity around macroeconomic liquidity and central bank interest rate policies.
