Anthropic picks Nasdaq for a potential $2 trillion IPO as the Fed prepares to hike Wednesday. What Indian retail traders need to watch across NVDA, SPCX.
TLDR
Anthropic has picked Nasdaq for its potential IPO, with a valuation reported to be as high as $2 trillion. That would sit above the $1.75 trillion listing SpaceX printed earlier this year and become one of the largest tech IPOs ever attempted. Q2 revenue was $11.5 billion, a 14x jump year-over-year, with annualised revenue hitting $65 billion by late July. The company is projecting $190 to $200 billion in revenue by 2028. All of this lands 24 hours before the US Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, where prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing an 80 to 88% probability of a 25 basis point hike. CrowdStrike closed +13.85% at a new all-time high of $234.90 in the same session. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan told CNBC the debate over slowing AI does not change his FY27 or FY28 outlook in the least. Elon Musk said he is highly confident SpaceX will launch Nvidia NLV72 VR AI computers in space next year.
Market Regime
Wall Street closed higher on Monday going into the Fed print. The S&P 500 added 0.86% to 7,656.98, the Nasdaq gained 0.96% to 26,333.04, and the Dow rose 0.98% to 52,573.29. The VIX dropped 11.21% to 15.84. That is a low-volatility drift into a rate decision the market has already priced. A 25 basis point hike is now the shared view of Kalshi at 80%, Polymarket at 88%, the CME FedWatch tool, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. The current federal funds range sits at 3.50 to 3.75%. A hike moves it to 3.75 to 4.00%.
What could break the setup is Chair Kevin Warsh at the press conference at 12:00 AM IST Thursday. JPMorgan already expects a second hike in December, so the debate has shifted from whether the Fed hikes to how far tightening goes. Any hawkish language on the follow-through tightens further beyond what the curve prices. On the other side, a hold would be the surprise scenario. Historically low probability, but the only path to a broad relief rally in growth names.
Bullish Factors
- Anthropic filing validates AI economics. Positive adjusted operating income is the first profitability signal from any of the frontier AI labs. That gives Wall Street a real number to price against, not a forward story.
- AI capex holders speaking with one voice. Broadcom guided FY27 and FY28 outlook unchanged, Trump publicly called AI takeover fears a hoax, and Samsung co-led a $230M Series A in Euclyd, a Dutch AI inference chip startup chaired by former ASML CEO Peter Wennink. Three signals on the same day.
- CrowdStrike closed at a new all-time high +13.85%. One of the biggest single-day moves for a large US software stock this quarter, and a signal that leadership is broadening beyond the AI hardware complex.
- Memory cycle strengthening. Kioxia is reportedly considering raising up to $10 billion through a US listing of American depositary receipts. Memory demand is running hot, not cooling.
- Pre-IPO Perp product deepening on CoinDCX. Both SPCX and Anthropic have fresh, price-relevant news on the same day. The pre-IPO Perp complex is now anchored by two of the biggest private companies in the world.
Bearish Factors
- Fed hike is coming. 80 to 88% priced across prediction markets. Higher rates hurt expensive growth stocks the most, and a lot of the AI trade sits in that bucket.
- Warsh has been hawkish since Jackson Hole. His press conference at 12:00 AM IST Thursday can push the market further than the actual number, particularly if he leaves the door open for December.
- Dario Amodei is calling for AI slowdown. The Anthropic CEO published an essay urging the industry to slow model development even as his own company files for a $2T listing. Asian AI names sold off Monday on the essay.
- Higher oil is a second inflation source. Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West pipeline over the weekend, an alternative route around the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil reinforces the case for tighter policy.
- Softbank flash crashed Monday on OpenAI IPO delay. The stock dropped 10.7% in Tokyo Monday after Sam Altman said OpenAI would wait until next year to list. A reminder that AI IPO timing is not linear.
Asian Markets This Morning
Asia is trading mixed into the Fed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 0.4% at 63,700, rebounding from Monday’s 0.81% drop to 63,493. Select technology names led the bounce, with SoftBank recouping about 6% of Monday’s 10.7% loss and Advantest gaining 3.8%. Kioxia rose 2.5% in Tokyo trading on reports that the memory chipmaker is weighing an ADR listing of at least $10 billion.
South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.8% to 6,628.99, extending the AI-linked sell-off from Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.6% to 24,773.37, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.9% to 8,668.30. The common thread is caution ahead of both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, both of which are expected to raise rates this week.
What Moved Wall Street Today
US indices closed higher Monday, with the VIX dropping 11.21% to 15.84 as traders positioned into Fed day with less hedging on. The S&P 500 added 0.86% to 7,656.98, the Nasdaq climbed 0.96% to 26,333.04, and the Dow rose 0.98% to 52,573.29. The Russell 2000 added 0.45% to 2,903.94.
CrowdStrike was the standout single-name mover, closing +13.85% at a new all-time high of $234.90 on the back of a strong earnings print and Wedbush initiating with a Buy rating. Anthropic’s Nasdaq IPO news and Elon Musk’s post confirming Nvidia NLV72 VR AI computers on SpaceX next year lifted sentiment across AI hardware and pre-IPO tape. The Monday session shrugged off Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s weekend essay calling for slower AI development.
Assets in Focus
NVDA
Nvidia is the single asset carrying the biggest AI-narrative optionality into and out of the Fed print. Elon Musk posted on Sunday that he is highly confident SpaceX will launch Nvidia NLV72 VR AI computers in space next year. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan told CNBC the same day that his FY27 or FY28 outlook is unchanged. Two AI capex tailwinds on the same day. NVDA is on CoinDCX Global Futures and typically leads the semiconductor complex into any macro print.
SPCX (Pre-IPO Perp)
SPCX is the flagship pre-IPO Perp instrument on CoinDCX Global Futures. Two catalysts landed this week. First, the Elon confirmation of the Nvidia NLV72 hardware partnership. Second, the Anthropic filing at up to $2 trillion sets an upper marker for what SpaceX can revisit at its own next listing event, given SpaceX was $1.75 trillion earlier this year. Any incremental Anthropic disclosure now moves both names because the pre-IPO complex trades as a group.
GOOGL
Alphabet is seen as one of the safer AI stocks to own into a Fed decision. It sits inside the AI capex trade because of hyperscaler spend, but its earnings profile is far less rate-sensitive than a pure AI hardware name. If the Fed comes in more hawkish than expected, GOOGL is where the AI trade typically consolidates rather than exits. On CoinDCX Global Futures.
DRAM (Semiconductor Index)
The DRAM index on CoinDCX Global Futures is the cleanest way for retail to trade the memory theme without a single-name bet. Two catalysts this week. Kioxia weighing a $10 billion US ADR listing, and Samsung co-leading the $230M Series A in Euclyd. Memory and AI inference silicon capex is not slowing. The index picks up the whole cycle.
AMD
AMD is the AI compute peer that gets hit hardest if the Fed leans hawkish. High multiple, high beta to the Nasdaq, and less of a structural moat than NVDA. Watching AMD versus NVDA relative performance is a clean read on how the market is pricing risk appetite in the AI trade specifically. On CoinDCX Global Futures.
Index Levels to Watch
- Nasdaq 100. Monday close 26,333.04. Traders are watching whether the index holds the 26,000 zone on a hawkish Fed print, and whether a soft Warsh presser reopens the path to prior highs above 27,000.
- S&P 500. Monday close 7,656.98. The 7,600 area has acted as recent structural support, and the 7,700 area capped the last two attempts higher.
- Dow. Monday close 52,573.29. Watching whether the index can push through 53,000 into the Fed, or whether it retests the 52,000 zone on any hawkish surprise.
- Nikkei 225. Tuesday morning above 63,700. If Wall Street reacts positively to the Fed, the Nikkei can push back toward the 65,000 zone. If not, the 63,000 level comes back into play.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Trading in futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. CoinDCX and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages arising from the use of this information.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. What time is the Fed decision on Wednesday in Indian time?
The FOMC rate decision is released at 11:30 PM IST on Wednesday, September 16. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference follows at 12:00 AM IST on Thursday, September 17. Prediction markets are pricing an 80 to 88% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
Q2. Why is the Anthropic IPO valuation being compared to SpaceX?
Anthropic's reported target valuation of up to $2 trillion would sit above the $1.75 trillion listing SpaceX printed earlier this year on the Nasdaq. Both would rank among the largest tech IPOs ever attempted, and Nasdaq has now taken both mega listings within a single calendar year.
Q3. Can Indian retail traders access Anthropic or SpaceX before they list?
SpaceX trades as SPCX on CoinDCX Global Futures via the Pre-IPO Perp product. Anthropic is on the platform's IPO watch list and is one of the most tracked pre-IPO names heading into an expected October 2026 listing window. Both give Indian traders exposure to some of the biggest private AI and space names without waiting for a US brokerage account.
Q4. What is the DRAM index and why is it relevant this week?
The DRAM Semiconductor Index tracks the memory chip cycle across the major listed memory names. Two memory stories landed on the same day. Kioxia's $10 billion US ADR listing consideration and Samsung's Series A lead in Euclyd. The index gives retail a way to trade the memory theme without picking a single stock.
Q5. What happens to markets if the Fed does not hike on Wednesday?
A hold would be the shock scenario given how heavily the market has priced a 25 basis point hike. In that case, growth stocks and rate-sensitive AI names could see an outsized relief rally on the announcement, while the US dollar would likely weaken. Warsh's language at the press conference would matter more than usual in guiding follow-through expectations.
