Quick Stats: Intel Q3 2026 Earnings Results
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Earnings Date | October 29, 2026, after the US market close (results at about 1:30 AM IST on October 30, earnings call at 2:30 AM IST) |
| Actual Revenue | $16.51B, up 21% YoY from $13.7B, versus about $16.4B consensus (StockStory), a beat of about 0.5% |
| Actual EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.52, up 126% YoY, versus about $0.40 consensus and Intel’s own $0.38 guide. GAAP EPS was $0.60. |
| Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) | 44.1%, versus the 42.0% guide and up 4.1 points YoY |
| Operating Income | $3.23B non-GAAP (19.6% margin) versus $2.65B expected, and $2.52B GAAP (15.3% margin) |
| Data Center and AI Revenue | $7.32B, up 78% YoY |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow | $1.64B, on gross capex of $4.22B |
| Q4 2026 Guidance | Revenue $15.0B to $16.0B versus about $17.0B consensus, non-GAAP gross margin 38.0%, non-GAAP EPS $0.25 versus $0.44 consensus |
| Stock Reaction | Down about 21% in extended trading on October 29, to about $72.85 from a $92.07 close (regular session opens at 7:00 PM IST on October 30) |
Intel Earnings Report Q3 2026: Strong Beat, but a Weak Q4 Guide Overshadows It
Intel reported its Q3 2026 financial results on Thursday, October 29, 2026, after the US market close, with results reaching Indian traders around 1:30 AM IST on October 30. Ahead of the release, we mapped key resistance zones and unit metrics in our Intel Q3 2026 earnings preview.
The company posted $16.51 billion in revenue, up 21% year on year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.52, outperforming its guided $0.38 and beating the $0.40 Street consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 44.1%, topping the 42.0% guidance by 2.1 percentage points, driven by Data Center and AI (DCAI) revenue expanding 78% to $7.32 billion.
However, forward fourth-quarter guidance disappointed expectations. Intel projected Q4 revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion (versus ~$17.0 billion expected) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25 (versus $0.44 expected).
Shares plunged roughly 21% in extended trading to $72.85, nearly double the 10.7% options-implied move entering the event. The regular US session opens at 7:00 PM IST on October 30
Intel Financial Call: Margin Expansion Driven by Data Center
Intel’s headline results demonstrated strong operational leverage across its enterprise server business. Revenue expanded 21% to $16.51 billion, non-GAAP gross margin increased by 4.1 percentage points to 44.1%, and non-GAAP operating profit reached $3.23 billion (a 19.6% margin).
GAAP EPS stood at $0.60, representing a recovery from a loss of $2.16 in Q2, which had absorbed a $12.5 billion mark-to-market charge on escrowed equity. Core third-quarter metrics represented a clean beat across revenue, gross margins, and profitability; the stock’s sharp pullback was driven almost entirely by the Q4 outlook.
Prior Quarter Snapshot: Intel Q2 2026
Intel’s second quarter also beat estimates and still sent the stock down, because Intel raised its capex plan, and that pattern is part of what traders were weighing going into this report.
| Metric | Actual (Q2 2026) | Estimate | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.1B (+25% YoY) | About $14.4B | Beat by about 12% |
| EPS (non-GAAP) | $0.42 | About $0.21 | Beat by about 100% |
| Gross margin (non-GAAP) | 41.8% | Not available | Not available |
| Data Center and AI revenue | $6.3B (+59% YoY) | Not available | Not available |
| EPS (GAAP) | Loss of $2.16 | Not available | Escrowed-share charge |
| Adjusted free cash flow | Outflow of $8.4B | Not available | Includes a $12.2B partner outflow |
| Stock reaction | -7.9% next session, to $92.32 | About 12.2% implied move | Inside the implied move |
Source: Intel Q2 2026 earnings release and the estimates and implied move cited in our Q3 2026 earnings preview and by MarketBeat.
The Numbers That Actually Mattered
Four areas explain most of the market reaction to Intel’s quarter: Data Center and AI growth, the gross margin beat, the sharp drop in the Q4 guide, and Intel Foundry.
Data Center and AI Revenue Jumped 78% to $7.3 Billion
Data Center and AI revenue was $7.32 billion, up 78% from a year earlier and up 17% from Q2, and it earned about $3 billion of operating profit. That is 44% of total revenue (calculated). CEO Lip-Bu Tan called it the strongest revenue growth for the segment in 15 years, and Intel said the segment is on track to finish 2026 nearly $10 billion above what was expected at the start of the year.
Gross Margin Beat the Guide by 2.1 Points
Non-GAAP gross margin was 44.1% against a guide of 42.0% and 41.8% in Q2. CFO Dave Zinsner said the Q4 margin guide reflects the Fab 28 shutdown, lower fixed-cost absorption and mix, partly offset by better yields on Intel 3 and 18A.
The Q4 Guide Is the Reason the Stock Fell
Intel guided Q4 revenue to $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, a midpoint of $15.5 billion that is about 9% below the $17.02 billion consensus, and non-GAAP gross margin to 38.0%, which is 6.1 points below Q3. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.25 is about half of Q3’s $0.52.
Two factors drove the cut. The shutdown of Fab 28 in Israel will remove about $300 million of Q4 revenue and about 200 basis points of gross margin, and customers are correcting PC inventory, so Client Computing revenue is guided down more than 20% sequentially after falling 9% in Q3 to $8.1 billion.
Intel Foundry Grew 58%, but It Still Lost $1.9 Billion
Intel Foundry revenue was $6.70 billion, up 58% year on year and 16% from Q2, with an operating loss of $1.9 billion. External foundry revenue was only $411 million and came largely from a non-recurring program. Tan did not name any customer for the 14A process, saying only that he is highly encouraged by progress with multiple potential customers, and the 0.9 version of the process design kit went to select customers in October, with version 1.0 expected in Q1 2027.
Quarterly Trend: Intel
The quarterly trend table below shows five quarters of Intel’s revenue, non-GAAP gross margin and EPS, and it shows revenue and margin recovering strongly through Q3 before the Q4 guide reverses part of that gain.
| Quarter | Revenue | Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) | EPS (Non-GAAP) | EPS (GAAP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $13.7B | 40.0% | $0.23 | About $0.90 |
| Q4 2025 | $13.7B | 37.9% | $0.15 | -$0.12 |
| Q1 2026 | $13.6B | 41.0% | $0.29 | -$0.73 |
| Q2 2026 | $16.1B | 41.8% | $0.42 | -$2.16 |
| Q3 2026 | $16.51B | 44.1% | $0.52 | $0.60 |
Source: Intel earnings releases. The Q3 2025 gross margin and GAAP EPS are calculated from the year-on-year changes stated in Intel’s Q3 2026 release (a 4.1 point margin gain and a 33% GAAP EPS decline).
What Management Said and What It Changes
During the conference call, leadership focused on enterprise compute tailwinds, personal computer headwinds, and capital allocation plans:
- Enterprise Server Demand: Management projected industry-wide server CPU unit shipments to grow by more than 30% annually across both 2026 and 2027, with packaging substrate availability acting as a supply bottleneck during early 2027.
- PC Client and Memory Availability: CFO Dave Zinsner noted: “We do not expect a sustained recovery until memory availability improves and pricing begins to normalize.”
- Capex and Liquidity: Full-year 2026 gross capex is tracking near $20 billion, with 2027 outlays projected to increase significantly alongside firm equipment orders jumping 40% quarter on quarter. Management noted that 2027 is unlikely to produce positive free cash flow.
Operational Shift: The enterprise data center franchise remains strong, but the near-term margin expansion narrative is deferred due to the Israeli fab closure, PC client inventory adjustments, and a rising 2027 capex bill without confirmed commercial 14A anchor customers.
Guidance: Q4 2026 and Full Year
Intel gives explicit quarterly ranges for revenue, gross margin and EPS, and the Q4 ranges sit well below both Q3 results and Wall Street expectations.
| Guidance Metric | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 revenue | $15.0B to $16.0B | Midpoint about 9% below the $17.02B consensus |
| Gross margin (non-GAAP) | 38.0% | Down 6.1 points from 44.1% in Q3 |
| EPS (non-GAAP) | $0.25 | Below the $0.44 consensus |
| EPS (GAAP) | $0.10 | Well below the non-GAAP figure |
| Tax rate | 11% non-GAAP and 31% GAAP | GAAP rate is much higher |
| Operating expenses | About $4.4B | Not available |
| Data Center and AI revenue | Up in the mid-teens sequentially | Growth continues |
| Client Computing revenue | Down more than 20% sequentially | PC inventory correction |
| 2026 and 2027 capex | About $20B gross in 2026, rising strongly in 2027 | No 2027 dollar figure given |
Source: Intel Q3 2026 earnings release and call, October 29, 2026. Consensus figures are from StockStory.
How Intel Q3 2026 Earnings Impact the Stock: Trader’s Takeaway
INTC shares dropped roughly 21% in after-hours trading to ~$72.85, following a 3.62% decline in the regular session to $92.07. The sharp adjustment marks the third instance in four quarters where an EPS beat was met with a sell-off due to forward capital guidance.
Bullish Scenarios
If the Fab 28 transition and PC inventory adjustments represent a fourth-quarter operational bottom, while DCAI continues its double-digit expansion and Intel secures external 14A customers, the stock could attempt to recover toward $81.64 (prior technical support, now immediate resistance).
Above that, $95.50 marks the reference price from Intel’s August public equity offering, followed by resistance levels at $99.98 and $103.12.
Bearish Scenarios
With the after-hours price already breaching $81.64, the next structural support zone sits at $70.23 (roughly 3.7% below extended-hours levels).
If PC softness and memory constraints linger into 2027, or capex expands without commercial foundry commitments, a break below $70.23 opens downside risk into uncharted territory for the current cycle.
For Indian traders, post-earnings price action on INTC is reflected in CoinDCX US Stock Futures from approximately 1:30 AM IST on October 30, before Indian equity markets open at 9:15 AM IST. Liquidity is usually thinner outside regular US hours, so an after-hours move can reverse once the US session opens at 7:00 PM IST. For another view of the 14A customer question, see our note on Musk’s TSMC Terafab talks.
Track all US earnings coverage in our US stocks hub
Intel Earnings Surprise History
Intel has beaten EPS consensus in each of its last five reports, yet the stock fell after three of them, which shows that guidance and capital spending have mattered more than the EPS result.
| Quarter | Date | EPS Result vs Consensus | Next-Session Stock Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | Oct 23, 2025 | Beat | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | Jan 22, 2026 | Beat | -17.0% |
| Q1 2026 | Apr 23, 2026 | Beat | +23.6% |
| Q2 2026 | Jul 23, 2026 | Beat ($0.42 versus about $0.21) | -7.9% |
| Q3 2026 | Oct 29, 2026 | Beat ($0.52 versus about $0.40) | About -21% (after hours) |
Source: beat or miss and stock moves for Q3 2025 to Q1 2026 are from Nasdaq data via ChartRow, which can use a different EPS basis from Intel’s non-GAAP figure. The Q2 2026 and Q3 2026 figures use non-GAAP EPS against MarketBeat and StockStory consensus.
For context on how the earnings calendar works, see our guide to the earnings season.
How to Trade US Stock Futures from India on CoinDCX
Indian traders can access price movements in Intel through CoinDCX US Stock Futures funded directly in INR without overseas banking transfers:
- Open the CoinDCX App: Launch the official application on your mobile device.
- Log In to Your Account: Authenticate your verified CoinDCX account credentials.
- Fund Your Futures Wallet: Deposit INR directly into your US Stock Futures wallet with zero currency conversion steps.
- Locate the Asset: Search for INTC within the US Stock Futures product tab.
- Set Position Parameters: Choose a Long or Short position based on your market read, select your desired margin and leverage, and place your order.
- Manage Risk: Track the position closely, as post-earnings price volatility typically extends over a 24- to 72-hour window.
This setup eliminates international wire transfers, foreign exchange conversion fees, and external offshore brokerage accounts.
Read our detailed tutorial blog: How to Trade on US Stocks Movements
Disclaimer
This article has been prepared by the CoinDCX Research Team for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. All data and figures cited are sourced from publicly available information including Intel’s official investor relations materials, SEC filings, and third-party financial sources at the time of publication. Past performance of any stock, including INTC, is not indicative of future results. Trading US Stock Futures involves risk, including the risk of loss of capital. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. CoinDCX is not liable for any trading decisions made based on the content of this article.
FAQs
Did Intel beat earnings estimates in Q3 2026?
Yes, Intel beat third-quarter estimates on both revenue and earnings. Non-GAAP EPS reached $0.52 against the $0.40 consensus, revenue totaled $16.51 billion versus $16.4 billion expected, and non-GAAP gross margin finished at 44.1% against 42.0% guidance. However, the weak Q4 outlook overshadowed the operational beat.
What was Intel’s revenue in Q3 2026?
Intel reported total revenue of $16.51 billion, up 21% from $13.7 billion in Q3 2025. Data Center and AI delivered $7.32 billion (up 78%), Intel Foundry brought in $6.70 billion (up 58%), and the Client Computing Group generated $8.10 billion (down 5%).
What is Intel’s outlook after Q3 2026?
For Q4 2026, Intel forecasts revenue between $15.0 billion and $16.0 billion, a non-GAAP gross margin of 38.0%, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25. Management cited the Fab 28 shutdown and an ongoing PC inventory correction as the primary factors behind the sequential moderation.
How did Intel stock react to the Q3 2026 results?
Intel shares dropped roughly 21% in extended after-hours trading on October 29 to around $72.85, down from a regular-session close of $92.07. Market participants focused heavily on the downbeat fourth-quarter outlook, which outweighed the 78% growth in Data Center and AI.
