SpaceX Joins Russell 1000 With Nasdaq Down 4.6% on the Week

SpaceX officially joins the Russell 1000 today after the Nasdaq fell 4.6% last week. Hormuz tensions reignite, Q2 ends, and June jobs land Thursday.

TLDR

• Russell US Indexes reshuffle takes effect at the Monday open with SpaceX entering the Russell 1000 as the marquee addition.
• Nasdaq Composite booked a fifth straight losing session Friday and closed the week down 4.6 percent, dragged by chip and AI infrastructure names.
• Iran-US conflict reignited over the weekend with crossfire targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iranian coastal sites; Doha talks scheduled Tuesday.
• Brent crude has bounced modestly off four-month lows toward 72 dollars per barrel ahead of those talks.
• Holiday-shortened US week ends with June nonfarm payrolls Thursday and US markets closed Friday for Independence Day.

Market Regime

The tape walks into Monday with two opposing currents pulling at index levels. On one side, the AI infrastructure trade that powered the H1 rally is wobbling. Five consecutive Nasdaq losing sessions, a 4.6 percent weekly drawdown, SpaceX trading roughly 5 percent off its first-week highs, and the OpenAI IPO reportedly slipping into 2027 have together raised the only question that matters for mega-cap valuations right now: who keeps funding the buildout if the IPO pipeline that was supposed to recycle capital back into the system slows down. On the other side, breadth has quietly improved. The Dow finished the week green, healthcare turned in its best week in roughly four years, and small caps led mid-week into the Russell reshuffle. Quarter-end rebalancing flows are likely amplifying both moves.

The regime to watch this week is the rotation, not the headline indices. With June nonfarm payrolls landing Thursday in a four-day session and Independence Day closing markets Friday, position-trimming into the long weekend is the default behaviour. Tuesday’s Doha talks between US and Iran officials sit awkwardly in front of that print. The setup is one where every signal is doing two jobs at once: jobs data has to clear both the Fed hike-vs-hold debate and the AI-spending durability debate, oil has to clear both the inflation lens and the geopolitical lens, and the Russell reset has to clear both the index-fund mechanics lens and the SpaceX-as-AI-proxy lens.

Bullish Factors

• Russell semi-annual reconstitution takes effect at the Monday open. Russell 3000 market cap rose 29 percent year-on-year to 75.6 trillion dollars, with 62 companies entering the Russell 1000 and SpaceX as the headline add.
• Healthcare logged its strongest week in about four years with the S&P 500 healthcare sector up around 7 percent, and small caps outperformed mid-week. The rotation under the surface still has fuel.
• University of Michigan final June sentiment came in at 49.5, up roughly 10 percent from May, with five-year inflation expectations dropping 0.6 percentage points to 3.3 percent.
• Brent and WTI are sitting close to 22 percent below their late-May highs, removing a meaningful inflation tail risk if the Doha track holds Tuesday.

Bearish Factors

• Five-session Nasdaq losing streak with the index down 4.6 percent on the week, led by chips and AI infrastructure names on OpenAI IPO delay reports.
• Iran fired drones and missiles at US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait early Sunday after US strikes Friday and Saturday. The Strait of Hormuz is operating but transit volumes are still below the historical average of 138 vessels per day.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari flipped his outlook on Friday and now sees one rate hike this year. Futures are pricing rising odds of a hold or hike at the July 28-29 meeting.
• SpaceX is trading roughly 5 percent below its post-IPO peak and Q2 end-of-quarter rebalancing could keep pressure on the names that ran hardest into June.

Asian Markets This Morning

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell about 1 percent to 68,704.70 in Monday trade, extending Friday’s 4.15 percent drop as AI-linked names continued to derate. SoftBank Group is leading losses again in Tokyo on the back of last week’s OpenAI IPO delay reporting. South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s TAIEX are digesting last week’s memory and AI-supply-chain selling, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continuing to trade with elevated volatility after both posted double-digit declines mid-week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is mixed as soft Chinese consumption data continues to weigh against sector-specific gains. US futures, by contrast, ticked higher in pre-market, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures pointing to a small green open on a quarter-end Monday.

Assets in Focus

SPCX – SpaceX

First trading day as a Russell 1000 component. Stock closed Friday near 153 dollars with a market cap of roughly 2.02 trillion dollars. ETF flows tracking the Russell 1000 will hit at the open. SpaceX is also set to join the Nasdaq-100 effective July 7, which means another mechanical buying window in roughly two weeks. The stock is trading about 5 percent below its post-IPO peak of 161 dollars.

MU – Micron

Held up better than memory peers after a blowout Q3 earnings two weeks ago. The memory cycle thesis remains the cleanest bull case in semis, but the broader chip tape is pricing in concerns about the pace of AI infrastructure spending if OpenAI’s IPO funding cycle slips into 2027.

MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN

The late-July earnings cluster – July 28-30 is now the next major catalyst for the mega-cap complex. GOOGL in particular comes in with the overhang of the 84.75 billion dollar equity raise priced in early June, which closes July 28.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix

Korea-side leadership of the AI memory trade is consolidating. Preliminary Samsung Q2 guidance is expected around July 7-8, which historically sets the tone for the full Asian semiconductor reporting cycle.

AAPL

Confirmed AMC July 30 earnings. The mid-cycle Mac price hike has already been absorbed by the market, leaving services growth and iPhone refresh commentary as the print-day variables to watch.

Index Levels to Watch

• S&P 500: Friday’s close of 7,354.02 sits roughly on the 50-day moving average near 7,356, a line the index has hovered around for three sessions.
• Nasdaq Composite: Five-session decline puts the index at 25,297.62, with the May breakout zone near 25,000 now in scope as the nearest reference point lower.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,876.11 close keeps the index within 1 percent of its mid-June all-time high near 52,300.
• Russell 2000: Reconstituted today. The index reset means historical chart levels carry less signal value through the first few sessions.
• Nikkei 225: 68,704.70 puts the index back below its 20-day average for the first time since early June.

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