Anthropic Ties $35B to Nvidia Orbit, CXMT Enters HBM Race

Anthropic signs $35B cloud deal with Nvidia-backed Lambda, CXMT begins HBM3E production, and Micron faces a Taiwan strike vote in September.

TLDR

• Anthropic signed a $35 billion cloud deal with Lambda on Aug 31. Nvidia holds the lease on the Texas data center that runs it, and Lambda buys its chips from Nvidia, which is also its investor.
• CXMT, on CoinDCX Global Futures via pre-IPO Perp, has begun small-batch production of HBM3E, the AI memory previously made only by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
• Micron faces a possible strike in Taiwan. 80 percent of its 10,000 union workers backed action in a preliminary vote. Formal mediation starts by mid September.
• S&P 500 and Dow closed August at their highest monthly levels ever. September opens from record highs, not a base.
• Warsh hawkish tone from Jackson Hole pushed September Fed hike odds to roughly 57 percent, keeping bond yields firm.

Market Regime

The setup right now is a memory and AI compute story that is deepening faster than the calendar can catch. Anthropic keeps signing multi-billion cloud deals, and every one of them so far this month has been with a Nvidia-backed provider. First $45 billion with Nscale in early August. Now $35 billion with Lambda on the last day of the month. Add in the $100 billion AWS commitment from April, and Anthropic is running as one of the largest single buyers of AI compute in the world. That flow of money is what is holding NVDA at the top of the tape even as its stock digests the August 26 earnings print.

What could break the tape is the exact same story from a different angle. Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole on Friday and did not give traders the dovish signal they wanted. Sep 16 hike odds sit at roughly 57 percent. Bond yields stayed firm, the dollar stayed bid, and equity vol nudged up. September is historically the weakest month of the year for US stocks. The tape enters the month at record highs on the S&P and Dow, but with the Fed leaning hawkish and Micron holding a September strike risk in Taiwan, the room to sell into any bad news is real.

Bullish Factors

• S&P 500 finished August +2.62 percent, Dow +1.54 percent, Nasdaq +4.18 percent, Russell +0.86 percent. Highest monthly close ever on the top two. The trend is up, not sideways.
• Anthropic annualized revenue run rate reported at $65 billion by end of July. The demand line under all the Nvidia deals is real and it is compounding.
• Nvidia is now the landlord at Hut 8’s Beacon Point campus in Texas. Reported capacity ~350 megawatts for the Lambda tenancy, part of a 1 gigawatt site. Landlord economics are new for NVDA.
• CrowdStrike hit a fresh all time high Monday at $231. Cyber holding its bid alongside AI is a healthy tape signal, not a rotation warning.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix defended prices through buybacks on the KOSPI open Monday. Samsung also unveiled its next-gen HBM4 memory the same day, which keeps the AI memory pipeline story credible.

Bearish Factors

• Warsh Jackson Hole speech pushed Sep 16 FOMC hike odds to roughly 57 percent. Bond yields firm, dollar bid, equity vol nudged higher.
• Micron Taiwan strike overhang. 80 percent of the union backed a strike over bonus pay in a preliminary vote. Mediation starts mid September. Taiwan is 60 percent of Micron production and most of the HBM.
• CXMT HBM3E in small quantities is one generation behind Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron who are already mass producing HBM4. For 2027 and beyond, this is a real pressure on China pricing for the incumbents.
• The Bank for International Settlements and JPMorgan analysts have flagged the Anthropic-Lambda-Nvidia loop as textbook circular financing. Works while demand grows, ugly if it slips.
• September is historically the weakest month of the year for US stocks. Starting from record highs cuts both ways.

Asian Markets This Morning

KOSPI closed Monday at 6,835.8, up 0.23 percent. The index opened lower on weak US cues and slid as much as 1.28 percent intraday before Samsung Electronics (+0.38 percent) and SK Hynix (+1.14 percent) turned positive on buybacks and lifted the tape. Retail, foreign, and institutional investors were all net sellers, so the recovery is a buyback-driven print rather than a broad-based rally.

Nikkei 225 slipped below 66,000 on Tuesday, extending a 0.42 percent loss from Monday’s 66,129 close as rising oil prices renewed inflation concerns and the yen weakened. AI-related names led losses: Advantest -2.9 percent, Tokyo Electron -4.6 percent, Fujikura -3 percent. The Japan 10-year yield hit a fresh 30-year high, which weighs on rate-sensitive equities.

Hang Seng closed Monday at 25,567, down 0.1 percent, on renewed US-Iran tensions and a Warsh-driven hawkish repricing. Shein made its Hong Kong debut and fell more than 9 percent shortly after opening. Tencent -0.9 percent, Meituan -1.1 percent were the notable Hang Seng drags. China manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8 for August, better than the 49.7 consensus but still in contraction.

What Moved Wall Street Today

Monday Aug 31 was the last trading day of the month and the tape stayed positive into the close. S&P 500 and Dow both printed their highest ever monthly close. NVDA finished at $220.78, +0.05 percent on the day, digesting the massive August 26 earnings ($96.22 billion revenue, Q3 guide $108 billion). MU closed +2.77 percent at $958.73, extending its August rebound from July’s memory selloff. CrowdStrike hit a new all time high at $231, +5.77 percent.

The Anthropic-Lambda deal broke after the US close on Monday, meaning the reaction is a Tuesday session story. Hut 8, the smaller name that built the Texas site, is likely to move most on a percent basis. Lambda is not public. Nvidia benefits at the enterprise-value level. Anthropic benefits at the pre-IPO valuation level, and pre-IPO holders on CoinDCX see that most directly.

Assets in Focus

NVDA

The Lambda deal makes Nvidia the landlord for a $35 billion Anthropic tenancy. It also collects revenue from Lambda buying chips, and holds equity in Lambda as an investor. Three fee streams from one signature. Stock closed August at $220.78, still working off the August 26 earnings. All time high is $236.54. The setup for the Tuesday open is constructive, but any reclaim of $235 needs the AI capex story to keep printing new headlines, which it just did.

MU

Micron sits on the CoinDCX Global Futures trending list. Stock closed at $958.73 on Monday, +2.77 percent, extending an August rebound. The near-term catalyst is not fundamental, it is labor. 80 percent of Micron’s roughly 10,000 union workers in Taiwan support a strike over bonus pay. Formal mediation begins by mid September. Taiwan is 60 percent of production and the majority of HBM output. Last print was $41.46 billion in revenue and an 84.9 percent gross margin, so the union has ammunition. A settlement clears the overhang fast, a strike escalation opens real downside.

CXMT (pre-IPO)

China’s leading memory maker, on CoinDCX Global Futures via pre-IPO Perp, has begun small-batch production of HBM3E per The Information. HBM3E is one generation behind Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, who have moved to mass HBM4. Alibaba T-Head and Cambricon are already testing the CXMT memory with their own AI processors, with commercial products targeted for as early as 2027. The Shanghai listing debut had priced this expectation, and this is the story arriving.

Anthropic (pre-IPO)

On CoinDCX Global Futures via pre-IPO Perp. $35 billion signed with Lambda on Aug 31. $45 billion signed with Nscale in early August. Roughly $80 billion in one month, on top of the $100 billion AWS commitment from April. Annualized revenue run rate reported at $65 billion by end of July. Reuters described the company as IPO-bound in its coverage of the Lambda deal. For CoinDCX retail, this is the cleanest way to be long the demand side of the AI infrastructure trade.

DRAM (Semiconductor index)

The Roundhill DRAM ETF is the tradable proxy for the memory supercycle. AUM crossed $26 billion after $3.9 billion in inflows over 30 days as of the Aug 18 read. The CXMT news is bullish for the theme, mixed for the incumbents. Micron strike overhang is a near term drag, Samsung HBM4 unveil is a near term positive, Anthropic Nvidia deal is a demand-side positive. Net directional read stays constructive.

Index Levels to Watch

• S&P 500: monthly ATH close August. First support at the 7,600 zone. Below 7,500 opens the run to the 7,400 pivot.
• Nasdaq 100: around 27,300 area. Above 27,500 keeps the trend intact. Below 26,800 is the first monthly pivot.
• KOSPI: 6,835.8 close Monday. 6,800 is the immediate psychological line, 6,900 the resistance to reclaim before another run at 7,000.
• Nikkei 225: 66,000 is the round-number line. Below 65,500 opens the run to 65,000. Above 66,500 firms the base.
• Hang Seng: 25,567 close Monday. 25,500 is support, 25,800 the level to reclaim.

Disclaimer

This blog is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. All views expressed are those of the author based on publicly available information as of the date of publication. Trading in Global Futures and pre-IPO instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. CoinDCX does not endorse or guarantee any specific outcome based on the content provided.

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