War pushed oil past $100. AI patience ran out. The S&P 500 closed March 2026 down 5.1%. The Nasdaq fell harder. Here is everything that moved US markets in March and what to watch over the next two weeks.
How the indices moved
S&P 500 closed March at 6,528, down 5.1%, because of War and Inflation fears
The index fell in three separate waves. First, a US-Israel military campaign against Iran sent oil past $100 a barrel, reviving inflation fears and forcing investors to reprice interest rate expectations sharply higher. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 38 basis points to 4.32% during March. Second, Nvidia’s GTC conference delivered record chip order numbers but the stock still fell, signalling a shift from buying AI potential to demanding AI profit. Third, a draft stablecoin law published on March 24 dragged crypto-linked stocks down sharply. The selling accelerated through the second half of the month because each event reinforced the next.
Nasdaq 100 fell harder than the S&P 500 and turned negative year-to-date because of AI related fear in investors
The Nasdaq is heavily concentrated in tech, and tech had the worst month. Microsoft is down over 20% since January. Meta fell sharply after two court defeats in a single week. Alphabet dropped roughly 9% in the final week alone. These are the index’s largest holdings, and they moved together. Higher rate expectations hurt high-valuation tech stocks more than anything else in the market, and the Nasdaq carries more of them than any other major index.
Five things that defined March
01) Oil crossed $100 because of war, and that single move changed what investors expect from the Fed for the rest of 2026
The US and Israel launched a military campaign against Iran. Iran’s Supreme Leader was killed. Ships in the Red Sea came under attack. Brent crude hit $112, US oil crossed $100, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index posted its strongest monthly gain since May 2009. The OECD revised its US inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.8% to 4.2% in direct response. At the start of the year, markets expected rate cuts. By the end of March, some traders were pricing in rate increases. Higher rates hurt high-valuation stocks most, which is why every other story in this report hit harder than it would have in a normal month.
02) Nvidia announced a $1 trillion chip order backlog and the stock still fell because investors stopped buying the story and started asking for the profit
At GTC (March 16-19), Jensen Huang announced $1 trillion in expected chip orders through 2027, double last year’s figure, plus new autonomous vehicle deals and a plan to resume chip sales to China. The stock rose 4% on the keynote day before reversing. NVDA traded around $179 in late March, well below its 52-week high of $212.19. The problem: cloud companies are spending more on AI chips than they are earning back from AI. Investors are no longer willing to price in the promise. They want to see the return. Nvidia’s next earnings report is May 20, 2026.
03) Big tech’s AI spending bill came due in March and Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet all paid the price at the same time
For two years, the market accepted enormous AI infrastructure spend as a down payment on future returns. In March, that patience cracked. Microsoft is down over 20% since January, the largest drop among large-cap tech names. Meta had two court defeats in a single week and fell sharply in five trading days. Alphabet dropped roughly 9% in the final week, partly because its own research showed AI models could be built more cheaply, which investors read as fewer chip purchases needed going forward. NFLX and PLTR held up because their revenue comes from actual paying customers today, not future AI returns.
04) A single draft law threatened to end Circle’s business model in one session, the most significant crypto regulatory moment in years
CRCL (Circle) runs USDC, the stablecoin whose total circulating value had grown 72% in a year to $78 billion. Circle’s business model is straightforward: hold the dollars backing USDC and earn interest on them. On March 24, a draft Clarity Act proposed stopping stablecoin issuers from paying out that interest. The stock dropped sharply in a single session, its worst day on record. COIN fell with it, trading well below its 52-week high of $444. MSTR and HOOD also sold off. The CRCL trade is now almost entirely a legal question: if the law is amended before it passes, the stock recovers. If it passes as written, the business model changes materially.
05) Tesla fell roughly 10% in March not because of the market but because its CEO’s politics are showing up in actual car sales numbers
TSLA dropped from around $414 to close March near $362, sitting roughly 27% below its December 2025 peak of $498.83. Elon Musk’s involvement in the DOGE government cost-cutting effort triggered protests at Tesla showrooms across Europe and the US. Survey data showed brand reputation declined measurably. Q1 deliveries confirmed the concern: Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles, missing the analyst consensus of around 365,000 to 370,000 units. Production exceeded deliveries by over 50,000 vehicles, pointing to a structural demand problem rather than a logistics issue. Q1 financial results will be reported on April 22, 2026.
What to watch in the next 2 weeks
Each release tied to the stocks it will move most
Note: Tesla Q1 deliveries (358,023 vehicles) were reported on April 2, 2026 and missed the consensus of approximately 365,000 to 370,000 units. TSLA fell roughly 5% on the day. The focus now shifts to Q1 earnings on April 22.
| DATE | EVENT | STOCKS MOVED | WHY IT MATTERS |
| Apr 3Thu | ISM Services Data | MSFT, GOOGLMETA, NFLX | Services are 70% of the US economy. A contraction reading signals the slowdown is broad, not just manufacturing. Tech names relying on enterprise spending feel it first. |
| Apr 4Fri | US Jobs Report (NFP) | S&P 500, NDXCOIN, MSTR | The most watched weekly release. Strong jobs = fewer rate cuts = stocks fall. Weak jobs = growth fears. Either extreme moves markets sharply. Crypto-linked names are most sensitive to rate direction. |
| Apr 10Thu | CPI Inflation Data | COIN, MSTR, HOODNVDA, GOOGL | The most important number over the next two weeks. First reading to show if the Iran oil shock pushed consumer prices higher. Hot print: more selling. Cool print: a genuine relief rally is possible in beaten-down names. |
| Apr 11Fri | PPI Wholesale Prices | AMZN, MSFTS&P 500 | Factory-level prices before they reach consumers. A leading indicator for where May CPI is heading. A hot PPI after a hot CPI hardens the rate narrative further. |
| Apr 14+ | Q1 Earnings Season Begins | MSFT, GOOGLMETA, NVDA | The market needs to see that AI spending is generating actual revenue. If mega-caps can show real returns on infrastructure spend, the selloff reverses. If they cannot, the narrative gets worse before it gets better. |
| Apr 22 | Tesla Q1 Earnings | TSLA, RIVN | Deliveries already missed. The call will focus on margin pressure, the robotaxi timeline, and whether Musk signals any reduction in his government role. |
Indices to Watch
S&P 500 closed March at 6,528. If April 10 CPI comes in hot, the index likely breaks below 6,200 and enters a more serious correction. If inflation surprises to the downside, a rally back toward 6,600 to 6,700 is realistic. Q1 earnings starting April 14 will determine whether any recovery holds.
Nasdaq 100 is more sensitive than the S&P 500 to any shift in rate expectations because its biggest stocks carry higher valuations. A cool CPI print on April 10 could produce a 3% to 4% single-day rally. A hot print extends the selloff. Earnings starting April 14 will determine whether Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta can show that AI spending is generating returns.
Trade Every Stock in This Report on CoinDCX
NVDA | TSLA | CRCL | MSTR | COIN | NFLX | GOOGL | S&P 500 | Nasdaq 100
Long or short. In INR. Directly from India.
Trade US Stock Futures on 
Deposit and withdraw in INR (₹).
