Macro Overview
- US Fed Chair Powell Speech:Powell emphasized that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and warned that cutting rates too quickly could leave the “inflation job unfinished.” He highlighted a slowing labor market and the risks of overly restrictive policy, noting there is “no risk-free path” in balancing jobs and prices. Future rate decisions will remain data-dependent.
- US Final GDP q/q: Came in at 3.8%, above the expected 3.3%, which is bearish for markets.
- US Core PCE Price Index m/m: Came in line with the expectation which is neutral for the market
Crypto Markets Overview
- Market Movement: This week, the crypto market experienced a -2.35% fall, bringing the total market capitalization to $3.81 trillion. Notably, BTC saw a fall of -1.73% and ETH saw a fall of -4.71%. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 58.73%, while Ethereum’s holds at 13.00%
- Dormant $44M Bitcoin Wallet Moves Funds After 12 Years:A bitcoin wallet holding $44 million was active for the first time in 12 years, transferring roughly 400 BTC in small batches. The wallet, funded by miners 15 years ago, has now been emptied. The owner and reason for the move remain unknown.
- Spot Ethereum ETFs See Record Weekly Outflows Amid ETH Recovery: Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their largest weekly outflows ever last week, totaling $795.6 million, despite ETH reclaiming the $4,000 mark. BlackRock’s ETHA fund lost over $200 million, while Fidelity’s FETH saw $362 million exit, even as trading volume surpassed $10 billion.
- Aster Tops Perpetual DEX Rankings for Fees and Volume: Decentralized perpetuals exchange Aster leads all DEXs in daily fees and volume, generating $25M in fees and $42B in 24-hour trading volume, surpassing competitors like Hyperliquid. Backed by YZi Labs, Aster emphasizes multi-chain support, initially focusing on BNB Chain.
- M2 Invests $20M in Ethena to Drive Synthetic Dollar Adoption in Middle East: UAE: Based M2 Capital invested $20M in synthetic dollar protocol Ethena, supporting its governance token ENA. The move aims to expand regulated digital asset access in the Middle East, integrating Ethena’s USDe and sUSDe products into wealth management offerings.
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| Sep-30 | 7:30 PM | US JOLTS Job Openings | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| Oct-1 | 7:30 PM | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| Oct-2 | 6:00 PM | US Unemployment Claims | Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| Oct-3 | 6:00 PM | US Unemployment Rate | Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| Oct-3 | 7:30 PM | US ISM Services PMI | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around BTC is Neutral.
- BTC stayed range-bound this week, currently above the 100 EMA (D), signaling short-term strength. Price action is sideways for now, but the broader trend remains bullish, with October historically showing strong performance in past bull runs.
- Key support levels to consider are around $107,000 and $100,700. On the upside, resistance level is at $117,000 & $123,000.
- It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
- For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavours.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around ETH appears Neutral.
- ETH underperformed BTC this week, dipping to the $4-4.1K support and now resting slightly above it. The break below the 20EMA (D) signals short-term bearishness, reinforced by BTC dominance. Overall, ETH is expected to trade sideways in the coming days.
- Significant support levels include $4075 and $3392, while resistance level to watch is at around $4763.
- These levels play a crucial role in determining potential price movements. It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
Solana Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around SOL is Neutral.
- SOL is trading between key EMAs with choppy price action. A reclaim of $219 would be bullish, but until then, sideways movement is likely. Overall market conditions will also influence its trend.
- Key support levels to consider are around $205 and $191. On the upside, resistance level is at $219 and $244.
- It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
- For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavours.
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