Macro Overview
- US Unemployment Claims: The US weekly unemployment claims came out higher than expected, with 243K claims versus the forecasted 229K. This outcome is considered bullish for the crypto market, as higher unemployment claims can signal a potential easing in monetary policy, which can benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
- European Central Bank Holds Interest Rates: The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged in a unanimous vote on Thursday. Despite June’s landmark rate cut, the ECB stated that the potential for a September reduction remains open. The ECB noted that while monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive, domestic price pressures remain high, services inflation is elevated, and headline inflation is expected to stay above the target well into next year.
Crypto Markets Overview
- Binance US Approved to Invest Customer Assets in Treasury Bills: A federal judge has granted Binance’s U.S. affiliate approval to invest certain customer assets in U.S. Treasury bills, lifting previous restrictions from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Binance will transfer crypto assets to a third-party custodian not affiliated with the exchange. Following the announcement, the BNB token surged. This news is also positive for real-world asset tokens like ONDO.
- Shiba Inu Price Drops 10% Amid WazirX $235M Hack: On July 18, Shiba Inu (SHIB) saw its price drop roughly 10% to $0.00001720 following a major security breach at WazirX. Web3 security firm Cyvers identified suspicious movements of cryptocurrencies worth approximately $235 million from WazirX wallets, with around $100 million worth of SHIB compromised. This incident caused a significant sell-off risk for SHIB, the largest crypto by US dollar value affected in the hack, alongside Pepe, Ether, and other cryptocurrencies.
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| July 25 | 6:00 PM | US Advance GDP q/q | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| July 25 | 6:00 PM | US Unemployment Claims | Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| July 25 | Day 1 | US Bitcoin Conference | – |
| July 26 | 6:00 PM | US Core PCE Price Index m/m | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| July 26 | Day 2 | US Bitcoin Conference | – |
| July 27 | Day 3 | US Bitcoin Conference | – |
Note: “Events in red font signify severe impact, while those in yellow indicate moderate.”
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around BTC is neutral to bullish.
- This week, the overall crypto market and Bitcoin surged significantly, gaining more than 10% after an assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Trump’s survival has increased his chances of being elected as US president, which is seen as bullish for the crypto market. Technically, Bitcoin is now eyeing a test of the range high at the early $70k level. Despite an open CME gap down at $58k, the immediate focus is on moving towards the range high. The upcoming Bitcoin conference this weekend is expected to bring more volatility to the market.
- Key support levels to consider are around $63,200, $60300 and $58,250. On the upside, resistance levels is at $67,300 , $72,000 & $73,800.
- It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
- For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavors.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around ETH appears neutral to bullish.
- This week, Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s performance, with the ETH/BTC pair consolidating. Technically, Ethereum looks strong, bolstered by the upcoming trading of ETH ETFs, which is expected to increase inflows. For continued bullish momentum, ETH needs to clear the key level of $3,650 and hold above $3,360.
- Significant support levels include $3360 and $3220, while resistance levels to watch are at $3650 and $3950.
- These levels play a crucial role in determining potential price movements. It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
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