Macro Overview
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Beats Forecast: ISM Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 (Actual) | 51.7 (Forecast) | 52.6 (Previous) – still showing manufacturing expansion. It is generally bearish for crypto, as stronger economic data may keep Federal Reserve interest rates higher, pressuring assets like Bitcoin.
- U.S. Unemployment Claims: The latest in the came in at 213,000, below the forecast of 215,000 and unchanged from the previous week, signaling a stable labor market. A lower-than-expected jobless claims reading is usually bearish for crypto.
- Non-Farm Payrolls Miss Sparks Rate-Cut Hopes: The latest Non-Farm Payrolls showed -92K jobs and 4.4% unemployment in the United States, boosting Bitcoin as weaker labor data raises expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts
Crypto Markets Overview
- Market Movement: This week, the crypto market edged up 0.05%, lifting the total market capitalization to $2.25 trillion. Bitcoin gained 0.28%, while Ethereum slipped 0.13%. Bitcoin’s market dominance stands at 58.66%, compared with 10.39% for Ethereum.
- Bitcoin Rebounds as BlackRock-Led ETF Inflows Boost Sentiment: Middle East tensions pushed oil up and sending Bitcoin down to $63K, but strong ETF inflows led by BlackRock and whale accumulation of over 13,000 BTC helped the price rebound toward $74K.
- Strategy Buys $1.28B in Bitcoin: Michael Saylor’s firm Strategy has purchased 17,994 Bitcoin worth about $1.28 billion, further expanding its large Bitcoin holdings.
- Clarity Act Talks Advance Amid Stablecoin Debate: Talks around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act are picking up pace as lawmakers review banks latest proposals on stablecoin rewards, while tensions remain with the crypto industry and criticism grows from Donald Trump.
Top Altcoins Update & ETF Updates:
- U.S. Bitcoin ETFs Record Second Straight Weekly Inflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $568.45 million in inflows this week after $787.31 million the week before, marking their first back-to-back weekly gains since October.
- U.S. Ethereum ETFs See Two Weeks of Inflows: U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posted $23.56 million in inflows this week after $80.46 million the previous week, marking their first back-to-back weekly gains since early October.
- Zcash Devlopment Team Launches ZODL With $25M Funding: A former core team from Electric Coin Company has launched the Zcash Open Development Lab, raising $25M in seed funding to advance the Zcash protocol and build its privacy-focused mobile wallet, Zodl.
Geopolitical & Market update
- Goldman CEO Flags Weeks of Crypto Risk Amid Iran War: Rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran could put pressure on cryptocurrencies for several weeks as investors shift away from risk assets while markets assess the broader economic impact of the conflict.
- Pakistan Passes Law to Regulate Digital Assets: Pakistan has passed a law creating a permanent digital asset framework, empowering the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority to license and oversee crypto firms, a move viewed as bullish for the crypto sector.
- NYSE Parent ICE Expands Crypto Push: Intercontinental Exchange has partnered with OKX to bridge traditional finance and digital assets, including plans for crypto price data licensing and potential futures products.
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| Mar 11 | 6:00 PM | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | A higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index is typically bearish for crypto, as it may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher, reducing liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin |
| Mar 12 | 6:00 PM | US Unemployment Claims | Actual greater than Forecast is good for crypto |
| Mar 13 | 6:00 PM | Gross Domestic Product (GDP) | If the Gross Domestic Product comes higher than expected, it can be bearish for crypto in the short term |
| Mar 13 | 7:30 PM | Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) | If the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) comes higher than expected, it is generally bearish for crypto, as a strong labor market may push the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher. |
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- Bitcoin sentiment has turned from neutral to bullish, as the price holds key support and approaches the 20-period simple moving average, though the 50-period moving average remains a strong resistance ahead.
- The 14-period RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, indicating renewed buying momentum and resilience around key support levels.
- Key support is placed around $63,900, followed by a broader base near $58,800. On the upside, resistance stands at $74,200, with a stronger supply zone near $78,800.
- Traders could look for long entries near the key support zones and short positions near resistance, using well-defined risk parameters.
- Profit targets can be planned around the highlighted support and resistance levels, while consistently adhering to disciplined risk management.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- Ethereum sentiment remains neutral to bullish, as it taps liquidity just below the $2,000 psychological level and starts moving higher, indicating potential near-term gains, though the declining 50-period exponential moving average may cap further upside.
- The 14-period RSI has stabilized, rising toward the neutral 50 level after earlier weakness, signaling renewed buying momentum.
- On the downside, initial demand is expected near $1,721, with a more substantial structural floor around $1,461. Conversely, upside recovery attempts are likely to face supply pressure near $2,213, while a broader resistance ceiling stands close to $2,400.
- Traders may consider taking long positions near key support levels and short positions near resistance, while adhering to clear risk management guidelines.
Solana Technical Analysis
Summary:
- Solana sentiment turned bullish this week, with strong volume during consolidation and price approaching the 20-period EMA, suggesting potential continuation if broken above. Across the broader market, technical indicators such as RSI rebounds from oversold levels imply growing buying strength at key support zones.
- The 14-period RSI shows a short pause in bearish momentum, bouncing back toward the 50 midline.
- Immediate support levels are observed near $73, followed by a deeper structural support zone around $57. On the upside, significant resistance is positioned near $94, with a stronger supply barrier around $106.
- Traders might target long trades around major support zones and short trades near resistance levels, maintaining disciplined risk controls.
Market Outlook:
- Institutional inflows and selective whale accumulation are supporting the market.
- Technical indicators (RSI, EMAs) suggest cautious optimism with potential near-term upside.
- Geopolitical developments and macro factors remain key risk triggers.
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