Filecoin (FIL) is trading at ₹123.50 ($1.23), up 1.2% over the past 24 hours, according to the supplied market snapshot. However, the modest daily gain does not tell the whole story: volatility is running at 1.2× its baseline, while the 14-period Average True Range (ATR) stands at 7.9% of the current price. This suggests that FIL may experience wider price swings than usual over the next two to three days.

The near-term focus is whether buyers can sustain the upward momentum or whether traders begin taking profits after the recent move. Filecoin's upcoming 15 October vesting milestone adds another factor to monitor, as the market assesses the potential reduction in scheduled token releases. Neither the supply development nor the current price momentum guarantees a continued rally.

Ready to act on these levels?

▼ Support

₹120 $1.20

▲ Resistance

₹128 $1.28

With ATR at 7.9% of price, the implied ATR is approximately ₹9.73 ($0.10). This measures recent price movement; it does not predict that FIL will rise or fall by that amount. Given the elevated volatility, traders should watch how price behaves around the levels rather than assume they will hold.

If FIL holds above ₹120 ($1.28) over the next two to three days. A sustained move above resistance would indicate stronger momentum, although follow-through would depend on broader market conditions and trading activity

If FIL falls below ₹120 into focus. With volatility above its baseline, the move could be sharp; a quick recovery above support, however, would weaken the bearish signal.

The 15 October vesting milestone

Filecoin's six-year vesting schedule for allocations to Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation is expected to conclude around 15 October. Published estimates suggest scheduled annual new supply could fall from roughly 89 million FIL to 21 million FIL. This would reduce the flow of newly released tokens, but it would not remove existing tokens from circulation or automatically create buying demand.

Over the next two to three days, watch whether FIL attracts sustained buying ahead of the milestone or whether traders take profits as the date approaches. The price reaction will matter more for the immediate trade setup than the supply headline alone.

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