Arbitrum (ARB) has staged a sharp recovery, climbing roughly 34% from its all-time low of $0.0705, reached on June 26. The token is currently trading near $0.092 (₹7.9) after a strong bounce in recent sessions, making it one of the better-performing Layer-2 tokens over the past two weeks.

Meanwhile, another big test is coming up soon on July 16 when Arbitrum is expected to unlock 92.65m ARB tokens valued at around $8.8m at current prices. With unlocks, the market gets the additional amount of tokens to trade with, resulting in short-term volatility. When market sentiment is not very clear, as a result, you can get more volatility.

For traders, the key question isn't whether ARB can bounce—it already has. The question now is whether buyers are willing to keep defending the rally ahead of the new supply entering circulation.

Ready to act on these levels?

▼ Support

$0.088 ₹7.6

▲ Resistance

$0.100 ₹8.6

If ARB continues holding above $0.088, traders could attempt another push toward the $0.100–$0.105 (₹8.6–₹9.0) zone. A decisive break above $0.10 would suggest that the recent recovery still has momentum despite the upcoming unlock.

If sellers use the token unlock as an opportunity to take profits, ARB could slip below $0.088 and revisit the $0.080 (₹6.9) area. Losing that support would indicate that the rebound is losing strength and that traders are becoming more cautious.

The July 16 token unlock

Arbitrum's next unlock will release 92.65 million ARB tokens, representing approximately 0.93% of total supply and around 1.5% of the circulating float. Of these, roughly 56.13 million ARB will go to the team and advisors, while 36.52 million ARB are allocated to investors.

The market has already shown that unlock events can influence short-term price action. A similar unlock in June was followed by a pullback as traders adjusted to the additional supply entering the market. This makes the July 16 event the single biggest catalyst for ARB this week.

Trade ARB Futures on CoinDCX