Bitcoin Price Post-Election Surge: Will History Repeat in 2024?

Key Takeaways:

• Historical Election Impact on Bitcoin: Analysis shows Bitcoin prices have consistently rallied following U.S. presidential elections, regardless of the winning candidate.
• Projected Price Increase Post-2024 Election: Based on prior cycles, Bitcoin could reach around $103,500 by late 2025, with an anticipated 47.8% growth.
• Diminishing Returns Pattern: Each election cycle has shown a decrease in price growth, suggesting potential yet moderated gains after the upcoming election.
• Current Undervaluation of Bitcoin: Bitcoin is undervalued when compared to past cycles, indicating room for price expansion following recent market events.
• Macro-Economic Influences and Investor Interest: Broader economic conditions and rising interest in crypto as a hedge may boost Bitcoin’s value, particularly during post-election stabilization.

Bitcoin price may experience a substantial rally following the US presidential election, with historical patterns suggesting a significant price increase. According to analyst James Van Straten, previous election cycles have consistently led to upward trends for Bitcoin, regardless of which candidate won the White House. This article delves into past election impacts on Bitcoin, what current patterns indicate for post-election price movement, and why Bitcoin remains undervalued compared to previous cycles.

Impact of US Elections on Bitcoin Price

Historically, US elections have acted as catalysts for Bitcoin price movement. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin price has weathered three election cycles, each followed by a notable rally. A look at these past cycles shows that Bitcoin never returned to its election-day price, with gains that—while reducing over—remain significant.

BTC Price History | Source: CoinDesk

• In 2012, Bitcoin price rose nearly 12,000% within a year post-election, reaching over $1,100 from an initial price of around $11.
• In 2016, Bitcoin price rallied from approximately $700 to $18,000 by December 2017, a gain of around 3,600%.
• In 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin price surged by 478%, peaking near $69,000 within a year of the election.

Predicting Bitcoin Price Post-Election 2024

If historical patterns continue, Bitcoin price could see another notable increase. While the size of each rally has decreased, the trend remains upward, supporting a 47.8% gain that could push Bitcoin past the $100,000 mark by late 2025. This forecast aligns with the diminishing returns observed between cycles, indicating an anticipated, albeit moderated, price jump.

Read: Bitcoin price prediction

Current Market Indicators: Bitcoin’s Potential for Growth

Compared to previous cycles, Bitcoin’s current price is notably undervalued. Key metrics, such as the price relative to the cycle low during FTX’s 2022 collapse and April’s Bitcoin halving event, suggest a potential for significant growth. Since the last halving, Bitcoin’s growth has been sluggish, showing only a 7% increase—starkly contrasting to prior cycles where gains were far more pronounced. Analysts see this as supporting the diminishing returns theory while also highlighting Bitcoin’s unrealized potential, given its low valuation within the current cycle.

Broader Economic Factors and Bitcoin’s Growth Potential

Besides historical election patterns, the broader economic environment may play a pivotal role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. The current inflation rates, tightening regulatory stances, and evolving investor sentiment toward digital assets have positioned Bitcoin as an attractive hedge, drawing interest from both institutional and retail investors alike.

Conclusion

While short-term fluctuations in Bitcoin price may occur around the US election, historical data supports a substantial post-election rally that could bring Bitcoin’s value well past the $100,000 mark. As this period unfolds, investors should consider Bitcoin’s unique position in the market and its potential to deliver gains, even as the extent of each rally decreases cycle over cycle. Given these indicators, Bitcoin’s potential for growth appears promising, continuing to attract attention as both a store of value and a hedge in uncertain times.

Source: CoinDesk