Apple and Palantir Beat, Still Fall as AMD Reports Tonight

Apple and Palantir beat estimates and still fell. Marvell buys Lumentum for $115B, Oracle raises $20B and AMD reports tonight on US midterm election day.

TLDR

• Apple and Palantir both beat estimates and both stocks fell. Apple trades near $325 on CoinDCX Global Futures, about 3.9% below Monday’s $338.32 close, and Palantir near $164, about 8% below its $178.34 close.
• Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal worth about $115B. Lumentum fell 18.59% and Marvell 12.72% on Monday.
• Oracle plans to raise $20B for AI data centres, half in new shares and half in bonds. The stock fell 8.76%.
• Money rotated out of tech on Monday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% and the S&P 500 0.51%, while the Dow rose 0.41%. KOSPI fell 3.59% today.
• AMD reports at 3:30 AM IST Wednesday. Americans vote in the midterm elections today, with first results from about 5:30 AM IST.

Market Regime

The pattern from last week has become the rule: good results are not enough. Apple grew sales 12% and Palantir nearly doubled its sales, and both stocks are lower. Investors are looking past the quarter to margins, spending and how much growth is already in the price. Oracle’s $20B raise and the $115B Marvell and Lumentum deal added to worries about how much the AI build-out costs and who pays for it.

This is rotation rather than panic. The Dow rose 0.41% on Monday, Amazon gained 2.20%, US factory activity came in stronger than expected, and the 10-year yield eased to 4.89%. But the VIX climbed to 21.15, and the next 72 hours are crowded: the midterm results from early Wednesday morning India time, AMD’s report at 3:30 AM IST Wednesday, Qualcomm and Arm on Thursday morning and the jobs report on Friday at 7:00 PM IST.

Bullish Factors

• Strong results. Apple’s sales rose 12% to $114.5B and Palantir’s 96% to $2.31B, and Palantir raised its full-year outlook to about $8.53B.
• Factories are busy. The US ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in October, above the 54.5 expected, its tenth straight month of growth.
• Bond yields eased. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.5 basis points to 4.893%.
• Oil fell sharply. WTI dropped 7.36% to $96.46 and Brent 7.63% to $104.77 on Monday.
• Not everything fell. The Dow rose 0.41% to 51,983.98 and Amazon gained 2.20%.

Bearish Factors

• Good news is being sold. Apple and Palantir fell after beating, as Reddit and SanDisk did last week.
• AI costs. Oracle’s $20B raise reminded investors how expensive the AI build-out is.
• A deal that hurt both sides. Marvell is down about 32% since 28 October.
• Volatility is rising. The VIX rose 8.91% to 21.15.
• Event risk. The midterm results, AMD and Friday’s jobs report all land within four days.

Asian Markets This Morning

Korea took the brunt of the tech selloff again. KOSPI fell 3.59% to 5,648.79, giving back all of Monday’s 2.24% bounce. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both dropped as traders worried that AI spending would not earn enough to justify the chips being bought for it. Taiwan’s Taiex fell about 0.9% during the session.

Elsewhere, Asia was calmer. Tokyo was closed for a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up about 0.3% and Australia’s ASX 200 about 0.2% during the day, while the Shanghai Composite slipped about 0.7%. Oil steadied after Monday’s 7% drop as traders weighed when the war with Iran might end.

What Moved Wall Street Today

• US indices closed mixed on Monday. S&P 500 7,541.40 (-0.51%), Nasdaq Composite 25,164.32 (-1.07%), Dow 51,983.98 (+0.41%), Russell 2000 2,805.88 (-0.21%).
• Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal worth about $115B, with 4.5 Marvell shares for each Lumentum share. Lumentum fell 18.59% to $684.40 and Marvell 12.72% to $171.41.
• Oracle fell 8.76% to $119.22 after filing to sell $10B of new shares and $10B of bonds.
• AMD fell 7.52% to $466.84 before its report, after a 10.88% drop on Friday. Nvidia slipped 1.26%.
• Apple fell 1.83% to $338.32 and Palantir 3.13% to $178.34 in the regular session before their results.
• The ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5, the highest production reading since November 2021.

Assets in Focus

AAPL (Apple)

Apple’s sales rose 12% to $114.5B against about $113.4B expected, and profit per share was $2.10 against $1.99. iPhone sales were $57.6B and China sales rose 21% to $17.5B. The problem was the December outlook: sales growth of 7% to 10% and a gross margin of 45% to 46%, below the 46.3% analysts wanted. Apple trades near $325 on CoinDCX Global Futures. Monday’s $338.32 close is the reference point above, for context and not an entry or exit signal.

PLTR (Palantir)

Palantir’s sales jumped 96% to $2.31B, ahead of the $2.18B expected. US commercial sales rose 148% to $984M and are now bigger than its US government business. It raised its full-year sales outlook to about $8.53B. Even so, the stock trades near $164, about 8% below Monday’s $178.34 close, as investors sell AI names on good news.

AMD

AMD reports Q3 at 3:30 AM IST Wednesday, with analysts expecting about $13.1B in sales. The stock has fallen about 18% in two sessions to $466.84 and trades near $480 on CoinDCX Global Futures. It is the first big chip report since Intel’s crash and the Marvell deal, so its data centre outlook will move the whole group. Monday’s $466.84 close and Friday’s $504.80 close frame the range.

MRVL (Marvell)

Marvell’s deal for Lumentum is valued at about $115B and is expected to close in the first half of 2028. Investors did not like the price, and Marvell fell 12.72% to $171.41 on Monday, about 32% below its 28 October level. Friday’s $196.40 close, before the deal news, is the nearest reference point above.

NVDA (Nvidia)

Nvidia held up better than most chip stocks, slipping 1.26% on Monday after being up 2.6% earlier in the session. AMD’s report tonight is the next test for the group before Nvidia’s own results on 18 November at 3:30 AM IST.

Index Levels to Watch

• S&P 500: 7,541.40 (-0.51%), below Friday’s 7,580.07 close.
• Nasdaq Composite: 25,164.32 (-1.07%), its third straight decline.
• Nasdaq 100: 27,990 at Monday’s close (-1.39%). Friday’s 28,385 close is the nearest reference point above.
• Dow Jones: 51,983.98 (+0.41%), helped by money moving out of tech.
• KOSPI: 5,648.79 (-3.59%), below Monday’s 5,859 close.
• VIX: 21.15 (+8.91%), up ahead of the midterms and AMD.

Disclaimer

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