S&P 500 Tops 7,800 as Marvell Jumps 8% Ahead of Fed Minutes

The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,812 as Marvell jumped 8% and SpaceX eyed $40B for Nvidia chips. Asia slips, and the Fed minutes land tonight at 11:30 PM IST.

TLDR

• The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,812.12 on Tuesday, up 0.49%. The Nasdaq also closed at a record, 27,635.52.
• Marvell jumped about 8% after raising its FY2028 revenue target to $20 billion and calling for a $400 billion AI market by 2030.
• The Financial Times reports SpaceX wants to raise $40 billion in debt to buy Nvidia chips. Banks are also lining up a $60 billion chip financing for Anthropic.
• Asia is softer this morning. The Kospi fell 1.16% to 6,860.73 as foreign investors sold memory stocks again.
• Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, when it raised rates for the first time in three years, land tonight at 11:30 PM IST.

Market Regime

Wall Street is at record highs, but a small group of stocks is doing the lifting. AI chip names led again on Tuesday, with Marvell, AMD and Nvidia carrying the indices. Only about 25% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average, so the record is narrower than the headline suggests.

The other side of the picture is bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.27% and the 30-year at 5.64%, close to levels last seen in the early 2000s. Much of the AI build-out is now being paid for with borrowed money, from SpaceX to Anthropic, so the cost of debt matters more than usual. Tonight’s Fed minutes are the next test of how long rates stay this high.

Bullish Factors

• Record closes. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at all-time highs, and US stocks have added about $15 trillion in value since the March 2026 low.
• Marvell raises the bar. Marvell now expects about $20 billion in FY2028 revenue, up from $18 billion, and $70 billion to $90 billion by FY2031.
• More AI chip orders. SpaceX wants $40 billion for Nvidia chips, Anthropic is financing $60 billion of Google TPUs through Broadcom, and AMD says it will invest “tens of billions” across its supply chain.
• Memory pricing power. JPMorgan expects memory chips to stay in short supply through at least 2028, with HBM prices forecast to rise 54% in 2027.
• Power names join in. Constellation Energy jumped about 13% after a $4.3 billion nuclear power deal with Google, a sign AI demand is spreading into power.

Bearish Factors

• Yields near 20-year highs. The 10-year yield at 5.27% and the 30-year at 5.64% keep borrowing costs high for companies and buyers alike.
• Thin leadership. Only about a quarter of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day average, so a stumble in a few chip names could hit the whole index.
• Fed minutes tonight. The Fed raised rates in September. Any sign in tonight’s minutes that more officials want another hike could cool a market at record highs.
• Asia is not following. Foreign investors have sold Korean memory stocks two days in a row, even as JPMorgan stays bullish on the sector.
• Fear gauge creeping up. The VIX rose 3.73% to 15.57 on a record day, a sign some traders are buying protection.

Asian Markets This Morning

• Kospi: 6,860.73, down 1.16%. Foreign investors sold about KRW 1.16 trillion of shares. SK Hynix fell 2.09% and Samsung slipped 0.28%. The won weakened to 1,341.35 per dollar.
• Nikkei 225: 70,685.22, roughly flat and holding above 70,000. A weaker yen near 158.4 per dollar helped exporters. Hitachi rose 2.4% and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries gained 2.5%.
• Topix: Up 0.4%, with machinery and industrial names offsetting weaker tech.
• Hang Seng: Down 0.6%.

The split is clear. Japan is holding up on a weak yen and industrial stocks, while Korea is taking the hit as foreign money pulls out of memory chips ahead of the Fed minutes.

What Moved Wall Street Today

• S&P 500: 7,812.12, up 0.49%, a record close.
• Nasdaq Composite: 27,635.52, up 0.58%, a record close.
• Dow Jones: 51,521.28, up 0.49%.
• Marvell (MRVL): Up about 8% after raising its long-term revenue targets.
• AMD: Up 2.80% as its CEO promised tens of billions in supply chain investment.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Up 0.14% to a fresh all-time high, with its market value approaching $6 trillion.
• Constellation Energy (CEG): Up about 13% on its Google nuclear power deal.
• Rates and commodities: 10-year yield at 5.27%, WTI crude at $90.00 (+0.63%), gold at $4,141.60 (-1.09%), VIX at 15.57.

Outside chips, The Verge reports Microsoft’s Xbox has secured exclusive game streaming rights for Grand Theft Auto VI. The Information reports Meta and Microsoft are using less of Anthropic’s Claude internally as they shift staff to in-house AI tools.

Assets in Focus

SPCX (SpaceX)

SPCX rose about 7.6% on Monday to roughly $171.09 after Elon Musk confirmed early talks with TSMC about Terafab, the Texas chip project tied to Tesla, SpaceX and xAI. The new piece is the Financial Times report that SpaceX wants to raise $40 billion in debt to buy Nvidia chips. Morgan Stanley holds an Overweight rating with a $300 target. The open question is how much of the AI build-out SpaceX funds with debt, and what that costs with yields above 5%.

MRVL (Marvell)

Marvell raised its FY2028 revenue target to about $20 billion from $18 billion and now sees $70 billion to $90 billion in annual revenue by FY2031. CEO Matt Murphy lifted his AI market estimate to roughly $400 billion by 2030, more than four times the previous $94 billion estimate for 2028. The growth comes from custom chips, networking and data center connections. Today is the first full session after the roughly 8% jump.

NVDA (Nvidia)

Nvidia closed at another record on Tuesday, with its market value near $6 trillion. Two stories point the same way for Nvidia demand: SpaceX’s reported $40 billion chip budget and continued orders across AI. The one counterweight is the Anthropic deal, which runs on Google TPUs, an alternative to Nvidia GPUs.

AVGO (Broadcom)

Bank of America, Citi and Morgan Stanley are syndicating a $60 billion debt package so Anthropic can lease Google-designed TPUs supplied through Broadcom, the largest chip financing deal so far. It includes $42 billion of senior debt backed by Broadcom and $18 billion of junior debt without that guarantee. Blackstone has already committed about $9 billion to the junior part. The money funds Anthropic’s 2027 chip orders.

MU (Micron)

JPMorgan sees memory in short supply through at least 2028, with customers already discussing orders as far out as 2031. It forecasts HBM demand up 63%, server DRAM demand up 37% and HBM prices up 54% in 2027. JPMorgan also thinks Micron’s target of having more than 35% of revenue under long-term contracts through 2030 may be too low. The Kospi selloff in SK Hynix this morning is the near-term test of that view.

Index Levels to Watch

• S&P 500: 7,812.12 record close. 7,773.95, Monday’s close, is the nearest reference below. 8,000 is the next round number above, about 2.4% away.
• Nasdaq Composite: 27,635.52 record close. 27,477.31, Monday’s record, sits below. 28,000 is the next round number.
• Nikkei 225: 70,685.22. 70,000 is the round number it has held this week.
• Kospi: 6,860.73. 7,000 sits above after two days of foreign selling.

Disclaimer

Cryptocurrencies and futures are unregulated virtual assets, not legal tender, and subject to market risk. The information above is for education and general awareness only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Levels and estimates are reference points for context, not entry or exit signals. Please do your own research and consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.

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