SpaceX Rallies to $171 as Musk Confirms TSMC Terafab Talks

SpaceX jumped 7.6% to $171 after Musk confirmed TSMC talks on Terafab, while Nvidia and the Nasdaq hit records. Fed minutes land Wednesday at 11:30 PM IST.

TLDR

• SpaceX jumps. SpaceX (SPCX) closed near $171.09 on Monday, up about 7.6%, after Elon Musk confirmed that Terafab is in talks with TSMC.
• Records on the Nasdaq. Nvidia touched an all-time high near $238 to $239, and the Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,477.31.
• Memory stays tight. JPMorgan expects memory chips to stay in short supply through at least 2028.
• Asia split. Kospi fell 0.89% as SK Hynix dropped 3.69%, while the Nikkei rose 1.05% to a three-month high.
• Next up. FOMC minutes from the September meeting land Wednesday at 11:30 PM IST.

Market Regime

Wall Street is in a tech-led rally that sits on a narrow base. The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 both closed at records on Monday, and the S&P 500 finished within about 0.3% of its summer high. Underneath, fewer stocks are doing the work. The equal-weight S&P 500 has now fallen for seven straight weeks, and only around 42% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 200-day average. The biggest AI names, led by Nvidia and the chip supply chain, are carrying the indices.

The fuel for the move is Friday’s weak jobs report. Only 29,000 jobs were added in September and unemployment rose to 4.2%, which lowered the odds of another Fed rate hike in October after the September hike. What could break the setup is the bond market. Long-term yields are near multi-year highs, and this week brings 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions plus the Fed minutes. A weak auction or hawkish minutes would test how much the tech rally can carry on its own.

Bullish Factors

• TSMC talks are real. Musk said the TSMC talks on Terafab are “just discussions, but something may come of it.” That was enough to send SPCX up about 7.6% and TSMC to a record above $480.
• Nvidia at a record. NVDA hit a fresh all-time high and a market value of about $5.7 trillion, roughly $300 billion short of $6 trillion. Its $150 billion buyback adds steady demand for the stock.
• Memory demand runs years ahead. JPMorgan sees HBM demand up 63% and HBM prices up 54% in 2027, with customers already discussing orders out to 2031.
• AI power spending continues. Alphabet is close to a $1 billion-plus nuclear power deal with Constellation Energy for its data centers. GOOGL rose about 1.29%.
• Fewer hike fears. The soft September payrolls print cut the odds of another hike at the October 27 to 28 Fed meeting.

Bearish Factors

• Bond yields stay high. Treasury yields are near multi-year highs. The last 10-year auction cleared at 4.834% and the last 30-year at 5.308%. Both are back on the calendar this week.
• No deal yet. Nothing is signed on Terafab. TSMC has not commented, and the deal structure is still open.
• Intel loses ground. Intel, Terafab’s existing process partner, fell about 2% on fears that TSMC could shrink its role.
• Narrow breadth. The rally is concentrated in a handful of mega caps, which makes it more fragile if one of them stumbles.
• Hawkish Fed voices. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has said rates may need to rise another 0.50% or more. She speaks early Wednesday IST, ahead of the minutes.

Asian Markets This Morning

Asia split on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.05% to about 70,684, a three-month high, following Wall Street’s tech lead. South Korea’s Kospi returned from its holiday break, opened above 7,000, and then reversed to close down 0.89% at 6,941.39.

Chipmakers led the Kospi lower. SK Hynix fell 3.69% and Samsung Electronics fell 1.45%, with foreign investors net selling about KRW 1.8 trillion of Korean shares. The selling came even though Korea’s September chip exports hit a record $60.3 billion, up 262.8% from a year earlier. Investors trimmed chip stocks ahead of Samsung’s third-quarter results later this week. The smaller-company KOSDAQ index rose 2.98%.

What Moved Wall Street Today

US stocks closed higher on Monday. The S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,773.95, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.05% to a record 27,477.31, and the Dow added 0.18% to 51,267.90. The Russell 2000 rose 0.50%. Oil fell about 2%.

• SpaceX led the chip-linked names. SPCX had its highest close since June after Musk confirmed the TSMC talks and Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $300 target.
• TSMC and Intel moved in opposite directions. TSMC touched an all-time high above $480, while Intel slipped about 2%.
• Biotech joined in. Moderna rose about 9% on progress in its mRNA vaccine pipeline. The stock is up roughly 500% this year, and full Phase 3 melanoma vaccine data is due at ESMO on October 24.
• AI software spending is shifting. The Information reported that Meta and Microsoft are cutting internal use of Anthropic’s Claude in favor of their own AI tools. Meta still spent more than $105 million on Claude Code over a recent 28-day period.

Assets in Focus

SPCX (SpaceX)

SpaceX closed near $171.09, up about 7.6%, and passed a $2.23 trillion market value during the session. The trigger was Musk’s confirmation that Terafab, the Texas chip plant backed by SpaceX and Tesla, is talking with TSMC. One reported setup has TSMC owning and running the plant while SpaceX commits to buying chips. Another has SpaceX holding the majority with TSMC as a smaller partner. The first phase of Terafab costs $16.8 billion. SPCX listed at $135 in June and touched $225.64 in its first week, so large swings are common for this stock. SPCX is available on CoinDCX Global Futures.

NVDA (Nvidia)

Nvidia hit an all-time high near $238 to $239 on Monday, with a market value of about $5.7 trillion. It now makes up about 13% of the Nasdaq and 8% of the S&P 500, so its moves feed directly into the indices. The stock is up about 28% this year, behind the broader chip index. Its last results showed revenue more than doubling, and the company has $150 billion of new buybacks in place.

MU (Micron)

Micron is testing the $1,000 area after a pullback. JPMorgan expects memory to stay supply-constrained through at least 2028 and thinks Micron’s target of having more than 35% of revenue under long-term contracts through 2030 may prove too low. Several Asian memory makers already have over 50% of capacity locked into similar deals. Tuesday’s 3.69% drop in SK Hynix in Seoul shows the group can still swing sharply day to day.

AMD

AMD CEO Lisa Su is meeting TSMC as AI chip demand stays heavy, with chip supply the focus. AMD was little changed, up about 0.10%. With TSMC also in talks over Terafab, the foundry’s capacity is in high demand from several of its biggest customers at once.

GOOGL (Alphabet)

Alphabet rose about 1.29% after Bloomberg reported it is close to a multi-year nuclear power deal with Constellation Energy worth $1 billion or more. Google already has nuclear agreements with NextEra Energy and Southern Company, and Amazon recently signed a 690 megawatt deal with Constellation.

Index Levels to Watch

• S&P 500: 7,773.95 close, about 0.3% below its summer record high.
• Nasdaq Composite: 27,477.31 record close. The record itself is now the level the market is measuring against.
• Nasdaq 100: about 31,076 record close.
• Dow Jones: 51,267.90 close, lagging the tech indices.
• Nikkei 225: about 70,684 on Tuesday, a three-month high. The June record near 73,000 is the next reference.
• Kospi: 6,941.39, back below 7,000 after an early move above it.

Disclaimer

Cryptocurrencies and futures are unregulated virtual assets, not legal tender, and subject to market risk. The information above is for education and general awareness only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Levels and estimates are reference points for context, not entry or exit signals. Please do your own research and consult a registered advisor before making investment decisions.

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