TSMC Hits a Record as Lisa Su Flies to Taiwan for Capacity

TSMC closes at a record NT$2,575 as AMD CEO Lisa Su flies to Taiwan for capacity and the Nikkei crosses 70,000. Fed minutes and oil risks set up the week ahead.

TLDR

• TSMC closed at a record. Its Taiwan-listed shares rose 3.00% to NT$2,575 on Monday, after TSM gained 2.96% to $472.78 in New York on Friday.
• AMD is chasing supply. CEO Lisa Su made a short, unannounced trip to Taiwan on Monday to secure more chip packaging, testing and substrate capacity, which is running tight and getting more expensive.
• Asia rallied on Fed relief. The Nikkei 225 crossed 70,000 for the first time since early July and Taiwan’s Taiex closed at a record 49,712.
• The trigger was a weak jobs report. The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, and the odds of an October rate hike fell to about 21%.
• The risk to watch is oil. Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned the world’s oil buffer is “scarily thin” and could take two years to rebuild.

Market Regime

Markets have moved into a rate relief phase. Friday’s soft payrolls report pulled the odds of another Fed hike this month down from about 64% a week earlier to roughly 21%. The Fed raised rates in September to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, its first hike since 2023, so traders had been bracing for a second move. That fear has eased, and the money is going back into the stocks most sensitive to interest rates: AI chip makers and the companies that supply them.

Two things could break this setup. The first is Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s September meeting minutes, which will show how many officials wanted to keep hiking. The second is oil. Brent has traded around $100 for a month, and Aramco’s warning on Monday is a reminder that energy prices can push inflation, and rate expectations, back up quickly. Long-term US yields near 5.25% remain the ceiling over this rally.

Bullish Factors

• Fed hike odds collapsed. Weak September hiring and wage growth of just 0.1% cut the chance of an October hike to about 21%.
• TSMC at a record. TSMC added about 600 points to the Taiex on its own, and foreign investors bought a net NT$71.9 billion of Taiwan shares in one session.
• AI chip demand is still running ahead of supply. AMD’s CEO flying in to lock down packaging and substrate capacity shows chip designers still expect orders to outpace what suppliers can make.
• Musk and TSMC. Reports say TSMC and Intel are in talks to work with Elon Musk’s Terafab chip factory project, with suppliers putting the chance of a TSMC deal above 80%.
• Nasdaq at a record. The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at a record 27,190.86, with Nvidia leading the move.

Bearish Factors

• Oil reserves are thin. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said nearly 3 billion barrels of supply have been lost since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began and less than 10% of world oil stocks are practically available.
• Rebuilding will be slow. Nasser said refilling inventories could take up to two years, even if the Strait fully reopens.
• Yields are still high. The 10-year US Treasury yield is holding near 5.25%, which limits how much investors are willing to pay for growth stocks.
• The Fed minutes are a live risk. Wednesday’s minutes cover the September hike meeting, held before the soft inflation and jobs data, and could read more hawkish than markets now expect.
• Memory stocks cooled after earnings. Micron fell 2.05% on Friday despite a record quarter, as some traders took profits.

Asian Markets This Morning

Japan and Taiwan led a strong Monday in Asia. The Nikkei 225 jumped about 2.5% to 70,037.61 by the midday break, its first trip above 70,000 since early July, and was still up about 2.4% near 69,950 late in the session. Tokyo Electron gained about 5.7%, Advantest about 4.5% and SoftBank Group about 3.7%. Social media trackers estimated roughly $187.5 billion was added to Japanese stocks in the session. The rally was narrower than the headline suggests: memory maker Kioxia rose only 0.49% and still trades nearly 50% below its June record.

Taiwan’s Taiex closed up 2.55% at a record 49,712.04, led by TSMC, MediaTek and Delta Electronics. Hong Kong and Sydney were little changed. The common thread was simple: weaker US jobs, a higher Wall Street close on Friday, and buyers returning to AI-linked chip stocks.

What Moved Wall Street Today

US stocks rose on Friday after the September jobs report came in far below forecasts. The economy added 29,000 jobs and unemployment rose to 4.2%. The S&P 500 gained 0.73% to 7,722.72, ending within 1% of its record. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.19% to a record 27,190.86, and the Dow added 250 points, or 0.49%, to 51,176.96. Treasury yields fell after the report.

Nvidia led the Nasdaq to an intraday record, and chip stocks were the strongest group. TSM and AMD each gained close to 3%. Micron was the exception, slipping 2.05% even after record earnings earlier in the week. On the week, the Nasdaq finished higher while the Dow and S&P 500 posted small losses after a global bond selloff earlier in the week.

Assets in Focus

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor)

TSM closed Friday at $472.78, up 2.96%, and its Taiwan shares followed with a 3.00% gain to a record NT$2,575 on Monday. TSMC makes up more than 40% of Taiwan’s market value. Two fresh stories sit behind the move: reported partnership talks with Musk’s Terafab, and AMD’s CEO arriving in Taiwan to ask TSMC for more capacity. Watch whether TSM follows its Taiwan record when US trading opens at 7:00 PM IST.

AMD

AMD closed Friday at $633.91, up 2.95%. Lisa Su arrived in Taiwan on October 5, her second visit in under five months, with no public events planned. Industry sources say her focus is meeting TSMC and the packaging, testing and substrate suppliers that are short on capacity and raising prices. In May, AMD committed more than $10 billion to co-invest with Taiwan suppliers through 2029. Any supplier announcements from this trip could move both AMD and TSM this week.

NVDA (Nvidia)

Nvidia is trading around $235.90, close to its $237.88 record, after leading Friday’s Nasdaq rally. A fresh $150 billion buyback is backing the stock. Nvidia is one of the most-watched names on the CoinDCX Global Futures trending list today, and a close above $237.88 would put it at a new high.

MU (Micron)

Micron closed Friday at $1,074.89, down 2.05%, despite reporting record quarterly revenue of $54 billion with 87% gross margins last week. The muted reaction tells you how much good news was already priced in. Friday’s high of $1,108 is the first level above, and the 52-week high of $1,255 is the bigger one. Micron goes ex-dividend on October 14.

AAPL (Apple)

Bloomberg reports that John Ternus, who took over as Apple CEO from Tim Cook on September 1, is working hands on with the industrial design and human interface teams several times a week, sometimes visiting more than once in a single day. Apple’s design studio has lost much of its influence in recent years, and Ternus has said design sits at the core of the company. This is a slow-building story about product direction rather than a one-day trade.

Index Levels to Watch

• S&P 500: Closed at 7,722.72. 7,650 is the level below. The all-time high sits less than 1% above.
• Nasdaq 100: Closed at a record near 30,808 and briefly broke above 31,000. 30,500 is the level below, and 31,000 is the level above.
• Nikkei 225: Trading near 69,950 after touching 70,270. 68,950, Thursday’s close, is the level below. The June record near 73,000 is the bigger level above.
• Dow Jones: Closed at 51,176.96. Thursday’s close near 50,900 is the level below, and 52,000 is the level above.
• Key times this week (IST): ISM Services tonight at 7:30 PM, Fed minutes on Wednesday at 11:30 PM, jobless claims Thursday at 6:00 PM, and Michigan sentiment on Friday at 7:30 PM.

Disclaimer

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