Micron posted a record $54.2B quarter and guided $61.5B, yet MU stock barely moved. Asian chip stocks rallied, PCE cooled, and ISM and jobs data come next.
TLDR
- Record quarter: Micron reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $54.2B against roughly $51.5B expected, adjusted EPS of $33.42 against about $31.82, and a gross margin of 87%.
- Bigger guide: Micron expects about $61.5B in revenue and $38.15 in EPS next quarter, both well above estimates. Customer commitments under long-term supply deals rose to $32B from $22B in June.
- Flat stock: MU closed Wednesday at $1,066.10 and stayed near that level after hours, even though options had priced a move of about 8% either way.
- Asia took the cue: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 2% to a six-week high and Korea’s KOSPI climbed back above 6,900, led by chip stocks. China and Hong Kong were closed for National Day.
- Next up: ISM manufacturing tonight at 7:30 PM IST and the US jobs report on Friday at 6:00 PM IST, with October rate hike odds near 37%.
Market Regime
The market is in a phase where AI results have to be extraordinary just to hold the stock price steady. Micron delivered its sixth record quarter in a row, quadrupled revenue from a year ago and guided higher again, and the stock finished the after-hours session close to where it started. Expectations were already sky high. The stock has gained close to 485% this year and Micron is now worth about $1.2 trillion.
Around that, the backdrop is a Fed that raised rates in September and a bond market that just had its roughest quarter in decades. Cooler inflation on Wednesday lowered the odds of another hike this month, but long-term yields stayed high and oil is still elevated because of the Iran conflict. What could change the picture in the next 48 hours is US data: a soft ISM and jobs report would ease the rate worry, while a hot jobs number would bring it straight back.
Bullish Factors
- Memory demand is still growing. Micron said data center SSD revenue topped $10B in the quarter, more than 10 times the level a year ago, and DRAM revenue alone hit a record $39.8B.
- Customers are signing longer deals. Commitments under long-term supply agreements reached $32B, up from $22B in June, which gives Micron more visibility into next year.
- Growth every quarter. Management expects revenue to rise in every quarter of fiscal 2027, with gross margins moving higher after the first quarter.
- Inflation cooled. Core PCE came in at 3.0% for August against 3.3% expected, and headline PCE at 3.4% against 3.7%.
- Tech is leading. The Nasdaq rose 1.9% in September while the Dow fell 4.3%, and technology was the only S&P 500 sector to gain for the month.
Bearish Factors
- Memory price rises are slowing. Micron said it expects higher margins through fiscal 2027 but with a more moderate pace of price increases. That one line took the edge off the reaction.
- Margin guide was in line, not above. Micron guided next quarter’s gross margin to 86%, the same as estimates, after printing 87% this quarter.
- Yields stayed high. Data showing the US economy was stronger in the spring than first reported kept bond yields elevated, and the S&P 500 gave up a 0.7% intraday gain to close lower.
- A narrow rally. A handful of large tech stocks did most of the Nasdaq’s work on Wednesday, while half the Dow’s members fell and the index lost 443.87 points.
Asian Markets This Morning
Asia traded Micron’s results more enthusiastically than Wall Street did. Markets with a heavy weight in chip stocks moved up, while markets with little AI exposure were flat to lower. Figures below are from the Thursday session and should be refreshed before publishing.
- Japan: The Nikkei 225 rose more than 2% to a six-week high above 68,000. Chip-testing firm Advantest gained about 7%, Murata Manufacturing about 6% and memory maker Kioxia about 4%. The broader Topix was close to flat, so the move was concentrated in a few large chip names.
- South Korea: The KOSPI opened lower, then turned higher to retake 6,900, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix each up about 2%. The KOSDAQ jumped about 3%. Korea also reported a strong rise in September exports.
- Taiwan: The benchmark rose and touched a record intraday high on chip buying.
- China and Hong Kong: Closed for the National Day holiday.
What Moved Wall Street Today
Wednesday was the last trading day of September and of the third quarter. The August PCE report came in cooler than expected and stocks opened higher, with the Nasdaq up about 1% by midday. The gains faded in the final minutes as bond yields stayed high.
- Closing levels: The S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,651.54, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.24% to 26,861.06 and the Dow fell 0.86% to 50,906.05.
- Big tech held up: Apple rose 1.10% to $333.02, Amazon 1.01% to $249.15, Alphabet 0.93% to $344.08, Microsoft 0.77% to $512.90 and Nvidia 0.51% to $228.38. Meta fell 1.84% to $725.18.
- Amazon goes nuclear: Amazon signed a 20-year deal to buy 690 megawatts of power from Constellation Energy’s Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland, including 190 megawatts of new capacity from plant upgrades due between 2030 and 2032. The deal supports more than $3B of investment.
- Google launches Gemini 4 Argon: Google’s new frontier AI model raises the output limit to 1 million tokens from 64,000 and is going first to a small group of cybersecurity partners.
- Fed odds: After the PCE report, the chance of an October rate hike fell to about 37%.
Assets in Focus
Micron (MU)
Micron reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $54.2B, up 31% from the prior quarter and 379% from a year ago. Adjusted EPS was $33.42 and gross margin was 87%, all above the top end of its own guidance. For the full fiscal year, revenue reached $133.2B and adjusted EPS $75.52, up 811%. Next quarter’s guide calls for about $61.5B in revenue and EPS of $38.15, give or take $1. The stock closed at $1,066.10, up 0.10%, and traded roughly between $1,041 and $1,089 after the results. Micron also said it is working with Nvidia on its first custom version of high-bandwidth memory, the fast memory that sits next to AI chips.
DRAM Index
DRAM made up 73% of Micron’s sales this quarter, at a record $39.8B, up 343% from a year ago. Micron said supply stays tight into fiscal 2027 and that customers are locking in more long-term contracts. For traders who follow memory as a theme rather than a single company, the DRAM index tracks the same cycle across Micron, Samsung and SK hynix.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia closed up 0.51% at $228.38. Micron’s results matter for Nvidia in two ways. Strong memory sales confirm that AI server orders are still growing, and Micron confirmed it is building custom high-bandwidth memory with Nvidia for future chips.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Alphabet closed up 0.93% at $344.08 on the day Google launched Gemini 4 Argon. Google says the model performs at or above OpenAI’s and Anthropic’s top models on its own benchmarks, at an introductory price of $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens. Bloomberg reported that some Google staff think it performs less well on real coding work than the benchmarks suggest, which Google called inaccurate. The stock is up about 40% this year.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon closed up 1.01% at $249.15 after the Constellation nuclear deal. The 690 megawatts will keep flowing into the regional grid, and the agreement does not include a data center at the site. The deal also helps Constellation pursue a 20-year licence extension for Calvert Cliffs, Maryland’s only nuclear plant.
Index Levels to Watch
- S&P 500 (7,651.54): 7,600 below, and 7,715, Wednesday’s intraday high, above.
- Nasdaq Composite (26,861.06): 26,600 below, and the 27,070 area reached at midday Wednesday above.
- Nikkei 225 (above 68,000 intraday): 68,000 below and 69,000 above.
- KOSPI (around 6,900 intraday): 6,900 below and 7,000 above.
Today’s calendar in IST: US weekly jobless claims at 6:00 PM, US market open at 7:00 PM and ISM manufacturing at 7:30 PM, expected near 47. The September jobs report follows on Friday at 6:00 PM.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. What did Micron report for fiscal Q4 2026?
Micron reported revenue of $54.2B, adjusted EPS of $33.42 and a gross margin of 87% for the quarter ended in late August, beating estimates of about $51.5B in revenue and $31.82 in EPS.
Q2. Why did Micron stock barely move after beating estimates?
Expectations were already very high after a gain of close to 485% this year. Micron also said memory price increases will be more moderate from here, and its margin guide of 86% matched estimates rather than beating them.
Q3. What is Micron's guidance for the next quarter?
Micron expects revenue of about $61.5B and adjusted EPS of $38.15, plus or minus $1, with a gross margin of about 86%.
Q4. How did Asian markets react to Micron's earnings on October 1?
Chip-heavy markets rose. The Nikkei 225 gained more than 2% to a six-week high and the KOSPI moved back above 6,900, with Samsung and SK hynix up about 2% each. China and Hong Kong were closed for National Day.
Q5. What did the August PCE report show?
Core PCE rose 3.0% from a year earlier against 3.3% expected, and headline PCE rose 3.4% against 3.7%. October rate hike odds fell to about 37% after the release.
