Tom Lee Says the Biggest Crypto Bull Market Is Underway: What’s Behind the Claim?

Tom Lee told Korea Blockchain Week on 30 September that crypto is entering its biggest cycle ever. Bitcoin trades at $83,483.66, down 0.61% over the past week, with a market capitalization of $1.67 trillion and 24-hour volume of $36.62 billion. His crypto forecast rests on a moving average, institutional flows and a demographic shift. He also chairs a company holding roughly $16 billion of Ether.

What Is Tom Lee’s Crypto Bull Market Prediction?

“I believe this crypto cycle will be the biggest ever,” Lee told the conference on 30 September. He cited four reasons. Bitcoin is trading above its 200-day moving average, which he said has preceded eight of the past nine bull markets across twelve years. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin products held steady through September. Banks including BlackRock and JPMorgan are tokenizing assets, which he reads as blockchain becoming permanent infrastructure. And Americans in their twenties are set to inherit roughly $700 billion in 2026, against about $100 billion in 2019 and 2020.

Lee co-founded Fundstrat Global Advisors and is its head of research. He also pointed to Ethereum’s own history, arguing that long flat stretches have preceded its largest moves, and citing rallies of 227-fold in 2016 and 50-fold in 2020. Those multiples are his, and both predate the asset having institutional owners.

Bitcoin Is 18% Above Its 200-Day Average

Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average sat near $70,800 in an analysis published on 22 September, which puts the current $83,483.66 roughly 18% above it. Bitcoin crossed a second line the same month, regaining its 365-day simple moving average at about $80,900 on 22 September after more than 90 days below it. In the five previous instances of that pattern, it was higher twelve months later every time, with gains running from 59% to more than 1,400%.

The 365-Day Bitcoin Signal Failed Twice

The 365-day pattern has two failures. Bitcoin fell 27% within 90 days of the July 2018 crossing and 59% after the March 2022 one. Both show up when the test counts shorter stretches below the line, which the five-case version excludes. Lee’s own eight-of-nine figure covers the 200-day average instead, and he has published no data for it.

Is the cycle really turning? Read our deep dive on the 2026 crypto bull run

Bitcoin Needs 80% for Lee’s $150,000 Target

Lee restated a $150,000 Bitcoin target on 25 September, five days before the Korea remarks, alongside a near-term Ether target of $3,000. No timeframe was attached to the Bitcoin figure.

Bitcoin’s all-time high is $126,198.07, set on 6 October 2025, and at $83,483.66 it trades about 34% below that. Reclaiming the high would take a 51% gain, and reaching $150,000 would take about 80%.

BitMine’s $16 Billion Ether Position

BitMine Immersion Technologies holds 6,001,302 ETH worth roughly $16.06 billion, with 84% of it staked, and the company has said it is targeting 5% of Ethereum’s total supply. Lee is its chairman, and he has a long-term price target of $60,000 on Ether. The token traded near $2,676 and was down about 1% on the day he spoke.

Three Things That Would Confirm the Claim

There are three things that would confirm Lee’s claim that this is the biggest crypto bull market. First, Bitcoin holding above $80,900 the next time it sells off would show the September crossing is supported. Second, a move back above $126,198.07 would put Bitcoin at a record instead of in a recovery. Finally, ETF inflows holding up through October would make the September week a trend instead of a single week.

FAQs