SPCX Slips 2% as Starship Reaches Orbit for the First Time

SpaceX Starship reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, yet SPCX slipped 2% to $145.47 as US bond yields hit a 19-year high.

TLDR

• SpaceX’s Starship reached Earth orbit for the first time on its 14th test flight and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites.
• SPCX still closed 2.16% lower at $145.47 on Monday as the wider market sold off, then added 0.42% in extended trading.
• An engine issue cut the planned 10-hour mission to about three hours, and neither stage of the rocket was recovered.
• The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 5.24%, its highest since 2007, and the S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7,683.69.
• Nvidia rose 1.68% on a record $150B buyback while chip stocks fell more than 3% after OpenAI paused training on some models.
• In Asia today, the Nikkei 225 closed 0.60% lower at 65,481 and the KOSPI slipped 0.27% to 6,870.82.
• Next up: US job openings tonight at 7:30 PM IST, August PCE inflation on Wednesday at 6:00 PM IST, and Micron results after the US close on Wednesday.

Market Regime

Wall Street is trading two stories at once. The first is interest rates. The Fed raised rates on September 16 to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, and the 10-year Treasury yield has now climbed to about 5.24%, the highest since 2007, as stalled US-Iran talks keep oil prices up and inflation worries alive. The second is AI. OpenAI paused training on some of its models while it reviews unusual AI agent behavior, Michael Burry swapped his AI stock shorts for put options, and Anthropic’s IPO filing put AI risk warnings in front of public market investors.

That is the market SpaceX launched into on Monday. Starship reaching orbit is a long-term business milestone, but on the day SPCX traded with the Nasdaq rather than on its own news. What could change the mood this week is data. August PCE inflation on Wednesday and September jobs on Friday will decide whether markets start pricing another rate hike, and Micron’s results on Wednesday night will show whether demand for AI hardware is holding up.

Bullish Factors

• Starship finally reached orbit. It was the first orbital flight after 13 earlier test flights. Starship reached roughly 269 km above Earth and released 26 Starlink V3 satellites, which SpaceX said appeared to be working normally.
• A bigger rocket means a bigger Starlink. A mature Starship could carry up to 60 V3 satellites per launch, which SpaceX says is more than 20 times the network capacity one Falcon 9 Starlink launch adds. Starlink was SpaceX’s largest and only profitable segment as of the second quarter.
• Analysts still lean positive on SPCX. Over the past three months SPCX collected 26 Buy, 5 Hold and 2 Sell ratings, with an average price target of $234.21, according to TipRanks. Bernstein has a $248 target.
• Nvidia is buying back stock at record scale. Its new $150B authorization is the largest single buyback increase by a US company and lifts the remaining total to $235B through fiscal 2028.
• Micron is guiding big into Wednesday. The company guided fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to about $50B, plus or minus $1B, and JPMorgan and DA Davidson both reiterated Buy ratings ahead of the result.

Bearish Factors

• Bond yields are at 19-year highs. The 10-year yield reached about 5.24% and the 2-year approached 4.92%. Higher yields make richly valued growth stocks harder to justify.
• OpenAI hit pause. OpenAI paused training on its newest models after abnormal AI agent behavior, its second development pause in three months. Chip, memory and optical networking stocks sold off on the worry that demand for computing power could slow.
• Michael Burry is betting against AI. He replaced his stock shorts with put options on Micron, Nvidia, the SOXX chip ETF, Oracle, Caterpillar and Nebius, saying the AI bubble may burst sooner than he expected.
• Starship is not a finished product yet. An engine problem cut the mission short, and SpaceX did not recover either the ship or the Super Heavy booster. Full reusability, the core of the low-cost launch story, is still unproven.
• Oil is rising on stalled Iran talks. Crude jumped more than 5% at one point Monday after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal, before paring gains on reports of possible sanctions relief.

Asian Markets This Morning

Asia followed Wall Street lower on Tuesday, with Japan taking the bigger hit. Part of Japan’s drop was mechanical, because September 29 was the ex-dividend date for many companies paying September interim dividends.

• Nikkei 225: Closed 0.60% lower at 65,481.22 after falling close to 1.5% during the session. Banks, Toyota and SoftBank led the declines.
• SoftBank Group: Fell 3.35% to JPY 6,035, while memory maker Kioxia edged up 0.56%.
• KOSPI: Held up better, closing 0.27% lower at 6,870.82.
• Samsung Electronics: Rose 0.93% to KRW 272,500 after it and its affiliates agreed to invest $1B in Helix Digital Infrastructure, an AI data center and power developer backed by KKR, Nvidia and Vistra. SK Hynix slipped 0.17%.

What Moved Wall Street Today

US stocks fell on Monday as rising yields and the OpenAI training pause weighed on tech. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at their lowest levels in more than a week.

• Index closes: The Dow fell 0.67% to 51,481.51, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.92% to 26,820.38, and the S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7,683.69.
• SpaceX (SPCX): Closed 2.16% lower at $145.47 despite the Starship milestone, in line with the Nasdaq.
• Tech losers: Arm fell 8.70%, Intel 5.67%, Meta 4.79% and Coherent about 4.5%.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Rose 1.68% to $228.86 on its buyback and the launch of an AI agent safety platform, which also lifted Palo Alto Networks about 4.6%.
• AMD: Fell 3.61% to $607.87 on the day it agreed to buy World Labs for about $8.2B in stock.
• Boeing (BA): Slid nearly 7% on delays to 737 MAX 10 certification, the worst performer in the Dow.
• Anthropic: Its IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, showed 2025 revenue of $4.59B, up 1,088%, and an operating loss of $8.06B. The listing is expected after the November midterm elections.

Assets in Focus

SPCX (SpaceX)

SPCX closed at $145.47, about 8% above its $135 IPO price and below the $160 level it reached on its June 12 debut. The stock fell with the market on the day, but the Starship result matters for the long-term business. Starship is how SpaceX plans to launch the larger V3 satellites that grow Starlink, and President Gwynne Shotwell has said SpaceX plans to launch AI compute satellites on Starship in 2027. Analyst Gene Munster said the market is underappreciating the launch. The $135 IPO price and the $160 debut level are reference points for context, not entry or exit signals.

NVDA (Nvidia)

Nvidia was one of the few AI names that rose on Monday, closing at $228.86. The record $150B buyback gives the stock support the rest of the chip sector does not have. Bloomberg reports CEO Jensen Huang is slated to join Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and Palantir CEO Alex Karp at a lunch with President Trump to discuss AI risks. Burry’s new Nvidia puts run to September 2027, with strikes in the mid-$100s.

AMD

AMD agreed to buy World Labs, the spatial AI lab co-founded by Fei-Fei Li, in an all-stock deal worth about $8.2B. Li will join AMD as executive vice president and chief scientist, and the deal is expected to close by the end of 2026. The stock closed at $607.87, down from the record $639 it touched last week.

DRAM (Semiconductor index)

Memory stocks are the pressure point this week. Micron fell 2.62% on Monday and reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the US close on Wednesday, which is about 1:30 AM IST on Thursday. It guided to about $50B in revenue and about $31 in earnings per share. Burry’s new Micron puts expire in June with strikes around $500.

TSLA (Tesla)

Tesla moved its Roadster event to October 15 because of weather. The bigger near-term test is third-quarter delivery numbers, which usually land in the first days of October, after JPMorgan cut its delivery forecast.

Index Levels to Watch

• S&P 500: Closed at 7,683.69. Reference points are 7,600 below and 7,800 above.
• Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 26,820.38. Reference points are 26,500 below and 27,200 above.
• Nikkei 225: Closed at 65,481.22. Reference points are 65,000 below and 67,000 above, the level where Monday’s rally faded.
• KOSPI: Closed at 6,870.82. Reference points are 6,800 below and 7,000 above.

Disclaimer

This article is for general informational purposes only and is not investment, trading, financial or tax advice. Futures trading involves significant risk, including the possible loss of your entire margin, and may not be suitable for everyone. Levels mentioned are reference points for context, not entry or exit signals. The views expressed belong solely to the author and not to CoinDCX or its management. CoinDCX does not endorse or recommend any specific asset or trade. Please do your own research or seek independent advice before trading.

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