Tesla Semi Hits Volume Production, Meta Passes SpaceX Again

Tesla starts high-volume Semi production in Nevada, SpaceX eyes 1M Nvidia GPUs and Meta passes SpaceX again as the US 10-year yield tops 5.15%.

TLDR

• Tesla has started high-volume production of its Semi electric truck at a new plant in Sparks, Nevada, built for 50,000 trucks a year. PepsiCo, DHL and US Foods are among the first customers.
• SpaceX is on pace to run more than 1 million Nvidia GPUs by the end of 2026, based on Elon Musk’s breakdown of its two Colossus clusters.
• Meta Platforms is back above SpaceX in market value, capping a September gain of about 36%, its best month since 2013.
• US stocks ended Thursday flat as the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5.15%, its highest level since 2007. The S&P 500 closed at 7,704.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.26% on Friday to above 66,000 after President Trump called his talks with Xi Jinping “great.”

Market Regime

Bond yields are running this market. The US 10-year yield topped 5.15% on Thursday before easing near 5.1%, and the 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2004. Oil is a big part of the reason. Brent crude settled near $107 as Iran threatened to widen the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, and traders worry that expensive oil will keep inflation high and push the Federal Reserve toward more rate hikes.

Stocks are holding up, but only just. The S&P 500 finished Thursday almost unchanged, yet most of its stocks fell. A handful of large tech names, led by Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Netflix and Apple, carried the index. That leaves the market leaning on company-specific stories like Tesla’s Semi, SpaceX’s GPU build and Micron’s earnings next week. A clear drop in yields, or a Hormuz deal, would widen the rally. Another jump in yields would test it.

Bullish Factors

• Tesla Semi goes into volume production. Tesla opened its dedicated Semi plant in Nevada on Thursday. The 1.7 million square foot site is built for 50,000 trucks a year, or about 1,000 a week, and deliveries to PepsiCo, DHL and US Foods start this week.
• Meta’s best month since 2013. META is up about 36% in September on the launch of its Muse AI assistant, which went to No. 1 on Apple’s US App Store, and a Connect event that showed a new Muse device and VR glasses.
• SpaceX keeps buying Nvidia chips. SpaceX is on pace for more than 1 million Nvidia GPUs by year end, one of the largest single-customer builds in the AI market.
• Chip names bounce. On the CoinDCX Global Futures radar, SOXL is up 12%, Intel is up 9.1% and AMD is up 7.12%. Nebius gained after BNP Paribas upgraded it to Outperform with a $399 price target, up from $260.
• Trump and Xi end talks on a good note. Asian markets took the Washington meeting well, with Japan leading on Friday.

Bearish Factors

• Treasury yields at multi-year highs. The 10-year above 5.1% is the highest since 2007. Higher yields make borrowing more expensive and weigh most on high-priced growth stocks.
• Oil near $107. Iran’s threats around the Strait of Hormuz keep crude high, even as reports say the US and Iran are exploring a phased deal to reopen it.
• Weak market breadth. Most S&P 500 stocks fell on Thursday. Small caps lagged, with the Russell 2000 closing at 2,835.
• Data center delays. Oracle fell almost 5% after reports it invoked force majeure on a New Mexico data center project, raising questions about how fast AI infrastructure gets built.
• A soft Treasury buyback. The Treasury’s expanded buyback operation fell short of expectations, adding to pressure on long-dated bonds.

Asian Markets This Morning

Japan is leading Asia on Friday. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.26%, or about 827 points, to above 66,000, extending its winning streak to five sessions. Chip equipment names led, with Advantest up 2.8%, Kioxia up 2.2% and Ibiden up 4.2%. Banks also rallied, with Mitsubishi UFJ up 4% and Mizuho up 4.2%, as higher yields help lending margins.

The same yield story is showing up in Japan. Its 10-year government bond yield climbed to its highest level since 1996. For now, Japanese investors are treating the Trump-Xi meeting as the bigger headline, and that has kept risk appetite steady in the region.

What Moved Wall Street Today

US stocks closed mixed on Thursday. The Dow fell 162 points, or 0.31%, to 51,350. The S&P 500 slipped 0.02% to 7,704, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.01% to 26,939. Stocks opened near their lows as yields and oil climbed, then recovered as large tech names rose.

• Meta extended its run after its Connect keynote, where it showed a new Muse gadget, VR goggles and audio-only smart glasses, and named more retail partners for Muse.
• Oracle fell almost 5% on the New Mexico data center force majeure report.
• Nebius rose about 4% on the BNP Paribas upgrade. Bank of America also raised its revenue estimates for 2027 and 2028.
• Dow movers: Walmart fell 2.67% and IBM fell 2.44%, while Disney rose 2.03% and Visa gained 1.79%.
• Tesla slipped slightly ahead of its Semi event, which ran after the US close.

Assets in Focus

TSLA: Semi production starts, stock still waiting

Tesla launched high-volume Semi production almost nine years after first showing the truck. The plant sits next to Gigafactory Nevada and aims to finish one Semi every eight minutes at full speed. A shipper group including Microsoft and PepsiCo named Tesla lead maker on a 2,500-truck order this week. Tesla did not share pricing or a total order count, and Musk appeared only by recorded video. TSLA closed at $378.90 on Wednesday, down about 18% in 2026. The next checks are the Roadster unveil on October 1 and third-quarter delivery numbers in early October, where Goldman Sachs now expects 435,000 vehicles, down from 490,000.

SPCX: a million GPUs, and a market value swap with Meta

Musk said Colossus 1 runs 150,000 H100, 50,000 H200 and 30,000 GB200 chips, while Colossus 2 runs 110,000 GB200 and 440,000 GB300 chips. That is about 780,000 Nvidia GPUs across the two sites, with SpaceX on pace to pass 1 million by the end of 2026. Google already pays SpaceX $920 million a month for Colossus computing capacity. Even so, Meta passed SpaceX this week to become the world’s seventh most valuable listed company. SPCX listed at $135 on June 12 and hit a closing high of $201.80 on June 16.

META: Muse powers the best month since 2013

Meta launched Muse on September 8 and signed shopping integrations with retailers including Walmart, Sephora, Best Buy and Wayfair. Amazon and Alphabet blocked Muse from their own shopping platforms on Wednesday, and both stocks fell that day. META is up about 36% for the month, and the stock is now near a $2 trillion market value. With September ending next Wednesday, some profit taking into month end is possible.

NVDA: one customer, a million chips

The SpaceX count is a direct data point for Nvidia. Most of Colossus 2 runs on GB300, Nvidia’s newest Blackwell chip, which means the largest share of SpaceX’s build is going into current-generation hardware. That supports the demand picture Nvidia gave on its August earnings call, when it guided next-quarter revenue to $108 billion.

MU: earnings on September 30

Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, September 30 after the US close, which is early Thursday morning in India. The company guided for revenue of $49 billion to $51 billion and earnings of $30 to $32 a share, with gross margin near 86%. Wall Street sits slightly above the middle at about $50.6 billion. Options are pricing a move of roughly 10% in either direction, and next quarter’s guidance will matter more than the headline numbers.

Index Levels to Watch

• S&P 500 (7,704): Thursday’s intraday low near 7,669 is the first reference below. Above, 7,780 is the next zone.
• Nasdaq Composite (26,939): The record close of 27,122 from earlier this week is the reference above. Thursday’s low near 26,739 is the reference below.
• Dow Jones (51,350): Thursday’s intraday low near 51,144 is the first reference below, with 51,800 above.
• Nikkei 225 (above 66,000): 65,000 is the reference below after five straight gains, with 67,000 above.

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