Broadcom sees $230B in AI chip revenue by fiscal 2028, doubling annually from $58B. Stock dipped 5% after hours on Q4 guide. Fed hike odds at 56% for Sept 16.
TLDR
Broadcom just gave the AI capex story its cleanest number yet. Q3 AI semiconductor revenue landed at $16.7 billion, up 221% year on year, and management said the trajectory doubles each year: $58 billion in fiscal 2026, $115 billion in FY27, and $230 billion by FY28. Named customers on the call: Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic. The stock still fell close to 5% after hours because Q4 total revenue guide of $34.8 billion sat just below the $35 billion consensus. Meanwhile Federal Reserve rate hike odds for September 16 sit at 56% on Polymarket after Chair Kevin Warsh flipped the setup at Jackson Hole, and the KOSPI whipsawed on Thursday after a 3.99% Wednesday plunge. This is what a fresh AI print running into a hawkish Fed and a memory tariff scare looks like.
Market Regime
The setup for CoinDCX Global Futures traders looks split down the middle. On one side, the biggest AI supplier print of the quarter just confirmed the multi-year revenue path. Broadcom named the four customers investors care about most, and DELL followed with a 15.8% jump on Wednesday after a beat and raised guide on AI server demand. Jensen Huang stood at the G20 in Chapel Hill and called AI infrastructure the equivalent of water, roads, and electricity, pledging close to a trillion dollars in US spend this year.
On the other side, the September Fed decision is 13 days away and the market is pricing a 56% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The US 10-year yield closed Wednesday at 4.818%, the highest since November 2023, which is direct pressure on tech multiples even when the earnings are clean. The KOSPI plunged 3.99% Wednesday on renewed talk of a 100% tariff on offshore memory chips, then whipsawed Thursday to a 0.26% gain on Samsung and SK Hynix buyback support. What breaks this regime either way is Friday morning US jobs data.
Bullish Factors
- Broadcom Q3 AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7 billion, up 221% year on year and 54% quarter on quarter. AI made up 56% of total company revenue. Q4 AI guide is $21.7 billion, up 236%.
- FY28 AI revenue path of $230 billion. Broadcom expects AI semiconductor revenue to double from $58 billion in FY26 to $115 billion in FY27, and then double again to $230 billion in FY28.
- Named hyperscaler customers on the call: Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic. This is the first quarter every major AI buyer is publicly on the AVGO roster.
- DELL closed up 15.8% Wednesday after a Q2 beat and raised FY27 revenue guide. AI server backlog is the driver. Direct read for AI infrastructure spend.
- Jensen Huang pledged close to $1 trillion in US AI infrastructure this year at the G20 Innovation Ministerial. He also flagged that one gigawatt of AI infrastructure now costs $50 to $60 billion.
- NVDA reportedly nearing a $14 billion Hugging Face acquisition. The stock jumped 3.2% Wednesday on the reports. Signals Nvidia continuing to expand into the AI model layer.
Bearish Factors
- September Fed rate hike odds at 56%. Warsh at Jackson Hole flipped the setup from a 70% no-change base case to a coin flip on a 25 basis point hike. CME FedWatch shows similar readings. The decision is September 16.
- US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.818%. Highest close since November 2023. Bond yields going up is direct pressure on long-duration tech valuations, even when earnings are clean.
- KOSPI plunged 3.99% on Wednesday to close at 6,563. Samsung and SK Hynix led the fall on Commerce Secretary Lutnick saying memory makers must build in America or pay a 100% tariff. Thursday recovered 0.26% on buyback support.
- Iran conflict remains active. CENTCOM struck 60 Iranian sites Tuesday, Pentagon is extending troop deployments, and Trump privately discussed declaring the war over per a Wall Street Journal report. Oil is bid on the split narrative.
- AVGO Q4 total revenue guide came in a shade light. $34.8 billion vs $35 billion consensus. Traders sold the print in after hours despite the strong AI numbers. The bar keeps rising for hyperscaler suppliers.
Asian Markets This Morning
South Korea drove the Thursday session. The KOSPI opened up 1.83%, then plunged about 3% inside ten minutes in the afternoon on foreign media reports of a suspected Iranian attack on a US military base plus fresh speculation that the Bank of Japan may deliver a 50 basis point hike. The Korea Exchange saw a brief panic in KOSPI 200 put options, prices more than doubled. The index closed at 6,579.48, up 0.26% for the day, saved by heavy buybacks at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Wednesday context: KOSPI closed at 6,563, down 3.99%, on the US memory tariff scare.
Japan closed mixed. The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.17% to 64,214 as the yen strengthened sharply on speculation authorities may have conducted a rate check. Topix gained 0.5% to 4,102 on financials strength: Mitsubishi UFJ up 1.9%, Sumitomo Mitsui up 1.7%. Trading houses rallied on comments from Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel: Mitsubishi Corp jumped 5.4%. Hong Kong tech was volatile through the session as investors sat on their hands ahead of Friday US jobs data.
What Moved Wall Street Today
US markets rebounded on Wednesday after a three-day losing streak. The S&P 500 rose 0.46% to close at 7,666.60, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.45% to 26,217.83, and the Dow added 295 points or 0.56% to 53,061.95. Bond yields taking a breather from a multi-year high helped, though the 10-year still ended at 4.818%. Nvidia contributed the biggest single-name lift, up 3.2% on reports it is nearing a $14 billion acquisition of Hugging Face. Dell soared 15.8% after beating and raising FY27 revenue guidance on AI server strength. Nine of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher, with materials leading up 1.6%.
The main event landed after the close. Broadcom reported Q3 revenue of $29.59 billion, up 86% year on year, with AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion, up 221%. Non-GAAP EPS of $3.32 beat the $3.16 estimate. Q4 revenue guide of $34.8 billion sat just below the $35.03 billion Street forecast, and the stock fell close to 5% in after-hours trading. Palo Alto Networks closed down 9.3% during the day despite better than expected quarterly results. Meta closed up 2.5% after settling a social media addiction case with 29 states for $16.7 billion.
Assets in Focus
AVGO (Broadcom)
Q3 revenue $29.59 billion, up 86% year on year. AI semi revenue $16.7 billion, up 221%. Q4 AI guide $21.7 billion, up 236%. The multi-year path is now printed on the record: FY26 AI $58 billion, FY27 AI $115 billion, FY28 AI $230 billion. Hock Tan named Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic as customers on the call. Q4 total revenue guide of $34.8 billion sat below the $35 billion consensus, which is why the stock dropped close to 5% after hours despite the strong AI numbers. Broadcom is a verified retail ticker on CoinDCX Global Futures. Both sides of the AVGO trade are live tomorrow.
NVDA (Nvidia)
Jensen Huang spoke at the G20 Innovation Ministerial in Chapel Hill on Wednesday, calling AI infrastructure the great equalizer and comparing it to water, roads, and electricity. He said one gigawatt of AI infrastructure now costs $50 to $60 billion and pledged that Nvidia will invest close to a trillion dollars in the US this year. Separately, Nvidia is reportedly nearing a $14 billion acquisition of Hugging Face. The stock closed Wednesday up 3.2%. Nvidia is one of the customers Broadcom named as an anchor to the FY28 $230 billion AI trajectory. Dividend of $0.25 with an ex-date of September 10. NVDA has the highest daily volume among the AI names on CoinDCX Global Futures.
DELL (Dell Technologies)
DELL closed Wednesday up 15.8% after posting a Q2 beat and raising the FY27 revenue guide. The driver is AI server demand from hyperscalers. Along with the AVGO print, this is the second AI infrastructure supplier this week to confirm order book strength. DELL was added to the CoinDCX Global Futures verified retail list at the start of September. Watch for continuation into Thursday US session on the AI infrastructure basket.
DRAM Index (Memory)
KOSPI dropped 3.99% Wednesday and whipsawed Thursday on renewed talk of a 100% US tariff on offshore memory chips. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said memory makers must build in America or pay 100%. Samsung Taylor Texas plant is currently a foundry, not a memory fab. SK Hynix West Lafayette Indiana is an advanced packaging site, not front-end memory. Micron is the domestic winner in this framing with its New York memory fab already broken ground. DRAM index on CoinDCX Global Futures is the direct exposure for Indian retail on the memory tariff swing.
XLE (US Energy)
Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Trump is privately discussing declaring the Iran war over. At the same time the Pentagon is extending troop deployments in the Gulf and CENTCOM struck 60 Iranian sites Tuesday. Oil sits between the two headlines. Brent was above $95 per barrel Wednesday, WTI above $90. Any move by the White House on the war-over declaration is the biggest single-day swing factor for XLE and oil-linked names. XLE is a verified index on CoinDCX Global Futures.
Index Levels to Watch
- NSDQ100: Around 24,600 area. Watch 24,000 as the multi-week base below and 25,200 as the August high above.
- S&P 500: Closed Wednesday at 7,666.60. Watch 7,600 as the near-term support and 7,780 as the recent range top.
- AVGO: Wednesday regular close near $367. Post-hours pointed toward the $350 unwind level. Pre-earnings high was $385.
- DRAM Index: Pressure into Thursday US open on the tariff scare. August swing lows are the reference below.
- KSPI200: Thursday close 6,579.48. Wednesday close of 6,563 was the intraday low reference.
Disclaimer
This blog is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any asset. Prices, levels, and event calendars mentioned are reference points for context and not entry or exit signals. Trading in derivatives, US stock perpetuals, and pre-IPO instruments carries a substantial risk of loss. CoinDCX makes no guarantee of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any trading decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. What did Broadcom guide for AI revenue by 2028?
Broadcom expects fiscal 2028 AI semiconductor revenue to reach $230 billion. The path doubles each year from $58 billion in FY26 to $115 billion in FY27, then $230 billion in FY28. Q3 FY26 AI revenue was $16.7 billion, up 221% year on year.
Q2. Why did AVGO stock fall after the earnings beat?
Broadcom beat on Q3 revenue and EPS, and the AI trajectory guide was strong. But the Q4 total company revenue guide of $34.8 billion sat just below the $35 billion Street consensus. Traders sold the print in after hours as the bar for hyperscaler suppliers keeps rising with each cycle.
Q3. What are the odds of a Fed rate hike on September 16?
Polymarket showed 56% odds of a 25 basis point hike as of Thursday. CME FedWatch showed similar odds. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at his Jackson Hole keynote on August 28 flipped the setup from a 70% no-change base to a coin flip. The policy rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75% following the July 29 hold, where three officials dissented in favor of a hike.
Q4. Why did the KOSPI fall 3.99% on Wednesday?
Two things landed at once. First, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said US memory tariffs may reach 100% for chips not built in America, and Samsung and SK Hynix carry roughly half the KOSPI index weight. Second, US-Iran tensions pushed Brent above $95 and Korea is oil-import sensitive. Rising US bond yields added a third leg. Samsung Electronics fell 4.02% and SK Hynix fell 4.67% on the session.
Q5. What did Jensen Huang say at the G20 meeting?
At the G20 Innovation Ministerial in Chapel Hill on September 2, Huang told ministers that AI is infrastructure like water, roads, electricity, and the internet. Every country needs to build it to support the local economy. He said one gigawatt of AI infrastructure now costs $50 to $60 billion. Nvidia plans to invest close to a trillion dollars in US infrastructure this year.
Q6. When is the next major US economic data release?
The August non-farm payrolls report drops Friday September 5 at 6:00 PM IST. Consensus is in the low 100,000 range. August CPI follows on September 11. These are the two prints the Fed will read before the September 16 decision.
