Macro Overview
- U.S. Growth Slows Sharply in Q4: The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of around 1.4% in Q4 2025 (October–December), missing expectations and marking a sharp deceleration from the previous quarter, when growth exceeded 4%.
- U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Fed minutes show growing disagreement over interest rates. While rates were held at 3.5%–3.75%, more officials are cautious about cutting, and some even mentioned possible hikes. The hawkish tone weighed on markets.
- U.S. Unemployment Claims: Jobless claims beat expectations, reducing chances of near-term rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which is negative for crypto markets.
Crypto Markets Overview
- Market Movement: This week, the crypto market declined by 1.90%, pushing total market capitalization down to $2.88 trillion. Bitcoin dropped 2.02%, while Ethereum fell 1.22%. Bitcoin’s market dominance stands at 59.03%, with Ethereum accounting for 10.61%.
- Stabilizing Momentum, But Conviction Still Lacking: Momentum has bounced from oversold levels, reducing downside pressure and bringing mild buyer interest, but it’s not yet a clear risk-on move as participation remains thin. In spot markets, sell pressure and ETF outflows have eased, yet lower volumes and shrinking ETF profits keep investors cautious and prone to selling into strength.
- MicroStrategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings with $168M Purchase: Michael Saylor announced that MicroStrategy acquired an additional 2,486 Bitcoin for approximately $168.4 million, bringing its total holdings to 717,131 BTC, with plans to continue quarterly purchases.
- CME Group Moves Toward 24/7 Crypto Derivatives Trading: CME Group, the world’s largest derivatives marketplace, is set to launch 24/7 crypto futures and options trading, enabling continuous hedging pending regulatory approval.
Top Altcoins Update & ETF Updates:
- Bitcoin ETFs Record Fifth Straight Week of Outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a fifth straight week of $3.8B in outflows, signaling ongoing institutional caution and potential continued market volatility.
- Significant ETH Accumulation: According to Lookonchain, Nasdaq-listed BitMine bought 20,000 ETH worth $39.8M from BitGo, adding to last week’s 45,759 ETH and reaching 72% of its goal to hold 5% of Ethereum’s total supply.
- Morgan Stanley Boosts Solana Exposure: TradFi giants like Morgan Stanley are increasing exposure to Solana as tokenized RWAs on the network hit a record $1.66 billion.
- BNP Paribas Brings Tokenized Money Market Fund to Ethereum: BNP Paribas has introduced a tokenized share class of a France-domiciled money market fund on the public Ethereum blockchain. The bank, Europe’s largest with more than $3 trillion in assets under management, is expanding its footprint into blockchain-based financial products.
Geopolitical & Market update
- Escalating Tensions Between the U.S. and Iran: Tensions have intensified over stalled nuclear negotiations and alleged breaches of U.S. “red lines,” sparking fears of military conflict and causing crude oil prices to jump sharply. This uncertainty is weighing on markets, especially energy and risk assets.
- Rising Oil on Geopolitical Tensions Signals Bearish Pressure for Crypto: Higher oil prices driven by geopolitical fears can lift inflation expectations, prompting a hawkish central bank stance and weighing on risk assets like crypto.
- Court strikes down Trump’s global tariff program: The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to block the tariff reduces trade-related uncertainty, potentially easing inflation concerns and supporting risk assets like crypto.
- White House Introduces Additional 10% Tariff on Global Imports: Donald Trump has signed an executive order imposing a 10% global tariff on all imports, in addition to existing U.S. duties — a move that could increase market volatility and create a slightly bearish sentiment in the near term.
- Hong Kong Moves to Boost Digital Asset Market: Hong Kong regulators are stepping up efforts to expand the city’s digital asset ecosystem, introducing a regulatory framework for perpetual contracts and indicating that stablecoin licenses will be issued within the next month.
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| Feb 25 | 7:30 AM | President Trump Speaks | New tariff announcements and rising geopolitical tensions could increase uncertainty and create a bearish sentiment in the crypto market. |
| Feb 26 | 7:00 PM | US Unemployment Claims | Actual greater than Forecast is good for crypto |
| Feb 27 | 7:00 PM | Producer Price Index Data | It often acts as an early signal for consumer inflation. Actual greater than Forecast is bearish for crypto |
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- BTC Market Sentiment Appears Neutral.
- BTC has rebounded from the lower edge of its long-term descending channel and is gradually moving higher, indicating possible further upside as long as support remains intact. However, the 20-period EMA could serve as the first level of resistance.
- Bitcoin’s consolidation between $65K and $72K keeps traders cautious, as dip buyers clash with sellers defending overhead resistance.
- RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, signaling easing downside pressure. However, it remains below midline levels, indicating the market has not fully shifted into a bullish regime.
- Key support stands near $63,000 and $58,200, while resistance lies between $74,600–$78,800; a breakdown could extend losses, though rising whale accumulation hints at potential supply exhaustion.
- Traders could look for long entries near the key support zones and short positions near resistance, using well-defined risk parameters.
- Profit targets can be planned around the highlighted support and resistance levels, while consistently adhering to disciplined risk management.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- Ethereum is attempting to stabilize after a prolonged pullback, forming a short-term base near recent lows. Price is consolidating below key moving averages, suggesting recovery momentum remains tentative, with market sentiment remaining largely sideways
- Technical indicators, including the 14-period RSI, show weakening bearish momentum, while broader market sentiment remains neutral to cautious — leaving price action at a key inflection point. However, no clear bullish divergence has formed yet, suggesting the market could see one more dip to create an RSI divergence before a meaningful upside move in the near term.
- Key support levels are located near $1,824 and $1,570, while important resistance levels to monitor are around $2,213 and $2,442.
- These levels are crucial for gauging potential price movements. Traders might look for long opportunities near the defined support zones and short setups near resistance, while employing proper risk management to limit potential losses.
Solana Technical Analysis
Summary:
- Market sentiment for SOL remains neutral.
- Price action right now is oscillating between the $80 support zone and near-term resistance around $90+, which keeps the market in a neutral/consolidative phase rather than confirming a sustained rally.
- A confirmed bullish divergence has not appeared on RSI yet, indicating that price may experience one more pullback to form a clear RSI divergence before a stronger upside move can develop in the near term.
- Key support zones are identified near $76 and $61, with significant resistance levels around $99 and $110.
- Traders may consider initiating long positions near support and short positions near resistance, applying disciplined stop-losses and booking profits around these levels to manage risk effectively.
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