Macro Overview
- US CPI and PPI: The November US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) were not released in November as scheduled due to the government shutdown and subsequent data collection issues. Data was not collected for October, which is typically used for November’s reports, creating uncertainty about future releases and their quality
Crypto Markets Overview
- Market Movement: This week, the crypto market experienced a -10.95% fall, bringing the total market capitalization to $3.09 trillion. Notably, BTC saw a fall of -3.16% and ETH saw a fall of -11.60%. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 59.04%, while Ethereum’s holds at 11.93%
- Bitcoin drops below $90,000 as ETF outflows hit the market:Bitcoin slipped to $89k, its lowest level in seven months, before stabilizing near $90k-$91k. The break below $90k highlights growing market weakness, driven mainly by institutional selling. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have seen over $3 billion in outflows in the past three weeks, adding to the pressure and signaling a continued risk-off mood.
- El Salvador makes its biggest-ever BTC buy:El Salvador purchased 1,090 BTC on 17th Nov — its largest single-day bitcoin buy, worth about $100 million. The country now holds 7,474 BTC, valued around $676 million. The move came as bitcoin dipped below $90,000, a level not seen since April. President Nayib Bukele’s administration has been buying 1 BTC daily since 2022, and historically adds bigger batches during major price drops, continuing its long-term accumulation strategy.
- Harvard triples its bitcoin ETF holdings:Harvard University has nearly tripled its position in BlackRock’s IBIT spot bitcoin ETF, increasing holdings from 1.9 million to 6.8 million shares in Q3 — a 257% jump. IBIT is now Harvard’s largest disclosed holding, ahead of Microsoft and Amazon. The stake was worth about $443 million at filing time, though it has since declined with IBIT’s price. Despite the big move, it remains a small part of Harvard’s $57 billion endowment.
- Japan to reclassify crypto and introduce major tax relief:Japan’s Financial Services Agency is moving ahead with plans to reclassify 105 cryptocurrencies including bitcoin and ether as financial products under the country’s Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. The shift will require exchanges to provide clearer disclosures on each listed asset, covering factors like whether it has an issuer, its blockchain design, and its volatility profile. Alongside the reclassification, Japan is also preparing tax cuts on crypto income, signaling a friendlier regulatory stance toward the sector.
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| Nov 20 | 7:00 PM | US Unemployment Rate | Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| Nov-21 | 8:15 PM | US Flash Services PMI | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around BTC is Sideways.
- BTC has dropped sharply, closed the CME gap below, and is now sitting in oversold territory around the key $90K level. When BTC hits extremes like this, the market often settles into a period of sideways movement as momentum cools off. A similar consolidation phase is likely in the coming days unless a major catalyst steps in.
- Key support levels to consider are around $91,000 and $84,000. On the upside, resistance level is at $95,000 and $99,000
- It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
- For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavours.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around ETH appears Sideways.
- ETH dropped as well, but with BTC dominance slipping and the ETH/BTC pair holding firm, ETH looks positioned for a more stable stretch. Sideways movement is likely, and ETH could slightly outperform BTC in the near term simply by showing lower volatility.
- Significant support levels include $3050 and $2825, while resistance level to watch is at around $3825 and $3440.
- These levels play a crucial role in determining potential price movements. It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent
Solana Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around SOL is Sideways.
- SOL fell along with the broader market and is now sitting at key support. From here, price action looks set to stay mostly sideways in the coming days.
- Key support levels to consider are around $128 and $120. On the upside, resistance level is at $156 and $178.
- It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
- For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavours.
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