Macro Overview
- US Advance GDP (QoQ): The US Quarterly Advance GDP has outperformed expectations, growing by 3.3%, a notable positive for the broader economy. However, this positive economic news historically has an inverse relationship with the crypto market, potentially signaling challenges for digital assets in the short term.
- Weekly US Unemployment Claims Rise to 214k: Weekly US Unemployment Claims have increased to 214k, exceeding the anticipated 199k. While this suggests potential economic challenges, it’s viewed as a positive for the crypto market as it surpasses expectations. The inverse relationship between unemployment claims and crypto highlights the complex dynamics at play in these markets.
Crypto Markets Overview
- Market Movement: This week, the crypto market experienced a -3.18% fall, bringing the total market capitalization to $1.58 trillion. Notably, BTC saw a fall of -1.5% and ETH saw a fall of -10.00%. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 52.39%, while Ethereum’s holds at 17.25%.
- U.S. to Sell $130M Silk Road Bitcoin Without Significant Impact: The U.S. government files a notice to sell $130 million worth of bitcoin linked to a Silk Road agent. The public notification outlines two lots of bitcoin for sale, totaling approximately 2,800 BTC for $129 million and a smaller lot of 58 BTC for about $3 million. Analysts suggest this won’t create significant selling pressure in the market.
- Shifts in ETF – BTC Holdings Reflect Institutional Moves: Grayscale maintains dominance in BTC holdings, but a shift is observed since the launch of the spot BTC ETF. Grayscale’s GBTC holdings decrease, while other ETF issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity increase their holdings, resulting in net outflows.
- Tesla Holds Steady on Bitcoin Reserves, No Buying or Selling: Tesla maintains its Bitcoin reserves during the last quarter, neither buying nor selling any Bitcoin. The company has held Bitcoin for six consecutive quarters, with the current holding standing at 9,720 BTC.
Top Tokens Update
- Manta Network Bounces Back Strong in Korean Crypto Scene: Manta Network, a zero-knowledge proof-powered layer-2 blockchain, makes a strong comeback in the Korean cryptocurrency scene despite facing challenges like a DDoS attack and investor speculation. The network now boasts a fully diluted market cap of $3.1 billion, demonstrating resilience and recovery.
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| Jan 30 | 8:30 PM | US Job Openings (monthly) | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| Feb 1 | 12:30 AM | US Federal Funds Rate | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| Feb 1 | 12:30 AM | US FOMC Statement | More dovish than expected is good for crypto |
| Feb 1 | 7:00 PM | US Unemployment Claims | Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| Feb 2 | 7:00 PM | US Non-Farm Employment Change | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| Feb 2 | 7:00 PM | US Unemployment Rate (monthly) | Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
Note: “Events in red font signify severe impact, while those in yellow indicate moderate.”
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around BTC is neutral to bullish.
- This week, after dropping to $38-39,000 support level BTC bounced back and is currently back above 20EMA D and 7 EMA W with a highly bullish weekly close implying bullishness.
- Key support levels to consider are around $40,800 , $38,600 , $38,000 and $34,375. On the upside, resistance levels include $43,000 ,$44,500 and $48,000.
- It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
- For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavors.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around ETH appears neutral to bearish.
- This week, Ethereum ETH) faced relative underperformance compared to Bitcoin (BTC), experiencing a decline and reaching a crucial support level at $2175. Presently, ETH is maintaining a precarious position slightly above this support. Both Price Action and Indicators are signaling a bearish outlook for ETH, emphasizing the challenges and potential downward pressure in the current market conditions.
- Significant support levels include $2175, $2125 and $2015, while resistance levels to watch are at $2380, $2700 and $2900.
- These levels play a crucial role in determining potential price movements. It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
- For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavors.
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