Macro Overview
- Insights from US Fed Meeting Minutes: The recently released minutes from the US Federal Reserve meeting reveal officials’ consensus on inflation steadily decreasing. Monitoring incoming data remains a priority to ensure the continuation of the slowdown towards the 2% target.
- Weekly US Unemployment Claims: In a break from the recent trend, weekly US unemployment claims show a decline, coming in at 209k against the expected 226k. This decline is slightly negative for crypto as it has an inverse relationship with cryptocurrencies.
Crypto Markets Overview
- Market Movement: This week, the crypto markets experienced a 2.85% uptick, bringing the total market capitalization to $1.399 trillion. Notably, BTC saw a rise of 2.90% and ETH saw an incline of 5.55%. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 52.65%, while Ethereum’s holds at 17.80%.
- Binance’s $4.3 Billion Settlement: Binance agrees to a $4.3 billion settlement over accusations of violating sanctions laws and AML regulations. Binance CEO resigns, replaced by Richard Teng. Bitcoin initially dips but recovers, signaling resilience in the market.
- Argentina’s Crypto-Friendly President-Elect: Argentina’s newly elected president, Javier Milei, signals crypto-friendly policies, aiming for greater cryptocurrency adoption. Bitcoin rallies to $37,000 in response to the potential crypto-friendly reforms.
- SEC Commissioner’s Stance on Bitcoin ETF: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce expresses a supportive stance on a spot Bitcoin ETF, stating there’s “no reason” for the SEC to hinder its approval. Bitcoin experiences a 1-2% spike immediately following this news.
- Victory Securities’ Crypto Trading License: Hong Kong investment firm Victory Securities obtains a retail crypto trading license, aligning with the city’s regulatory shift towards crypto services for retail investors. This fosters a positive environment for broader crypto adoption.
- Mt. Gox to Begin Repayments: Mt. Gox, the defunct crypto exchange, plans to start repaying creditors in cash “shortly” within 2023, according to an email received by creditors. Repayments are expected to continue into 2024 due to the substantial number of rehabilitation creditors.
- JPMorgan Views Binance Settlement Positively: JPMorgan considers the Binance settlement as positive, eliminating potential systemic risks and fostering growth in Binance’s trading and Smart Chain business. The prospect of settlement alleviates uncertainty for crypto investors.
Top Tokens Update
- Alchemy Pay Expands in the US: Singapore-based Alchemy Pay secures a money services license in Iowa, a significant move in its U.S. expansion. The development strengthens its position in the American market, with its token ACH surging by over 10% in two days.
- Ethereum Layer 2 “Blast” Secures $30M Investment: Within Hours of Bridge Launch A newly introduced Ethereum Layer 2 solution, known as “Blast,” has garnered significant attention and financial support. Notably, it managed to attract a substantial $30 million investment shortly after the launch of its bridge functionality. The project has successfully secured backing from notable investors, including Paradigm and members of “eGirl Capital,” among others. The enthusiasm and financial support from prominent players underscore the growing interest in Layer 2 scaling solutions to address Ethereum’s network congestion and high transaction fees.
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| Nov 29 | 7:00 PM | US Prelim GDP (quarterly) |
Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
| Nov 30 | 7:00 PM | US Core PCE Price Index (monthly) |
Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
| Nov 30 | 7:00 PM | US Unemployment Claims |
Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
| Dec 1 | 9:30 PM | US Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
More dovish than expected is good for crypto
|
Note: “Events in red font signify severe impact, while those in yellow indicate moderate.”
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around BTC is neutral.
- Similar to the last week, This week also BTC moved sideways within the big range of $35,000 to $38,000.
- BTC tried attempt to break the $38,000 major level but was unsuccessful, If BTC breaks and holds above $38,000 that would be a bullish sign, while if BTC breaks(down) the major incline trendline support price can fall to lower levels.(Check above chart)
- Critical support levels to monitor are estimated at approximately $36,700 (61% retrace.) $36,000, $35,600, $35,150, $34,500, and $33,400.
- On the flip side, resistance levels to be mindful of are $38,000 (supply zone) , $39,700 and $41,500.
- It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries.
- Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent. For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavors.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around ETH appears neutral to bullish.
- This week, ETH was bullish and outperformed BTC, after touching important resistance level at $2130 ETH moved slightly down and is holding up there.
- ETH needs to clear major $2130 resistance level, a good close above that can easily push the price to above resistance levels, while if turns down from here it can go to test lower $1900 demand levels.
- Resistance levels are at $2130, $2450 and $2950. Support levels are at $2030, $1914, $1864 and $1758(0.618fib level) .
- It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries.
- Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent. For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavors.
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