Macro Overview
- US Final GDP Growth in Q2 2023: In the second quarter of 2023, the US Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at a rate of 2.1%, which was just below the anticipated rate of 2.2%. Following this news, Bitcoin’s price surged above $26.5K.
- US Core PCE Price Index for Monthly Inflation: The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.1%. This figure was slightly lower than the expected 0.2%, and this outcome is considered positive for the cryptocurrency space as it suggests lower inflationary pressure than anticipated.
- Weekly US Unemployment Claims: Weekly claims dropped to 204K, less than the forecasted 214K. This is not good news for crypto, as it’s below expectations and could have a bearish effect.
Crypto Markets Overview
- Market Movement: This week, the crypto markets experienced a major 1.5% increase, bringing the total market capitalization to $1.057 trillion. Notably, BTC saw a rise of 1.15% and ETH saw a rise of 2.05%. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 49.79%, while Ethereum’s holds at 19.04%.
- SEC Delays Review of Spot BTC ETFs: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has chosen to postpone its review of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) proposed by notable firms such as BlackRock, Bitwise, Invesco, and Valkyrie. This decision came two weeks ahead of the expected decision date, which was originally set for sometime between October 16 and 19.
- $4.8 Billion Worth of BTC and ETH Options to Expire on Deribit on September 29: Deribit, a prominent cryptocurrency options exchange, is facing the expiration of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options valued at a staggering $4.8 billion. This event is set to occur on September 29, 2023. Investors are closely monitoring this date due to historical patterns where the expiration of options in past quarters has led to substantial trading volume and value fluctuations.
- Valkyrie Gets Approval to Invest in ETH Futures for Bitcoin ETF: Valkyrie, a financial firm, has received regulatory approval to expand its Bitcoin Strategy ETF (Nasdaq: $BTF) to include investments in Ethereum (ETH) futures contracts. This marks a significant development as it becomes the first U.S. ETF offering exposure to both Ether and Bitcoin futures contracts within a single investment vehicle.
- VanEck to Launch Ethereum Strategy ETF (EFUT): VanEck, a reputable asset management company, has announced its plans to launch the VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF (EFUT). This actively managed ETF is designed to seek capital appreciation through investments in Ethereum (ETH) futures contracts. Notably, EFUT will not directly invest in ETH or other digital assets but rather focus on ETH futures as its underlying assets.
- MicroStrategy Increases Bitcoin Holdings with Stock Sales: MicroStrategy, a well-known company for its substantial Bitcoin holdings, has continued to amass more of the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Over the past two months, the enterprise-software firm, co-founded by crypto advocate Michael Saylor, has acquired 5,445 Bitcoins. These purchases, valued at almost $150 million, were funded through stock sales, with an average purchase price per Bitcoin of $27,053.
Top Tokens Update
- GT Token Unlocking: 4.85% of Circulating Supply on September 30: On September 30, approximately 4.85% of the circulating supply of GT tokens, equivalent to around $25.8 million in value, is set to unlock, potentially impacting the token’s trading dynamics.
- OP Token Unlocking: 3% of Circulating Supply on September 30: Similarly, on the same date, September 30, around 3% of the circulating supply of OP tokens, valued at approximately $31 million, is also scheduled to unlock, which could influence the token’s market behavior.
- Chainlink Expands Cross-Chain Protocol on Coinbase’s Base: Chainlink, a leading oracle platform in the blockchain space, has expanded its Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) by integrating it with Coinbase’s Base platform. This strategic move enables the development of cross-chain decentralized applications (dApps) and services, contributing to a noteworthy price increase of Chainlink’s LINK token by more than 10% during the week
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| Oct 2 | 8:30 PM | US Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
More dovish than expected is good for crypto
|
| Oct 3 | 7:30 PM | US Job Openings (monthly) |
Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
| Oct 5 | 6:00 PM | US Unemployment Claims (weekly) |
Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
| Oct 6 | 6:00 PM | US Non-Farm Pay rolls (monthly) |
Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
| Oct 6 | 6:00 PM | US Unemployment Rate (monthly) |
Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
|
Note: “Events in red font signify severe impact, while those in yellow indicate moderate.”
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- Bitcoin had a strong performance this week.
- In the 1-day timeframe, Bitcoin is above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, which is a positive sign. (EMA).
- Its current price is at $26,930, which is below the previous week’s high.
- Bitcoin has significant resistance level at $28,000 to face.
- Additionally, Resistance levels are at $27300 and $28000. (Approx values)
- On the downside, there’s support at around $25,000. Coinciding with levels – lows of the previous week and month.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- In comparison to Bitcoin (BTC), ETH is showing a slightly bullish performance.
- Ethereum (ETH) has successfully crossed above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is maintaining its position above it, which is a positive sign.
- There are resistance levels above at $1,736(0.5 Fibonnaci level) and $1,796.
- On the downside, support can be found at $1,550 and a significant level at $1,481 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
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