Macro Overview
This week saw announcements related to US JOLTs Job Openings, US Prelim GDP q/q, US Core PCE Price Index Y/Y, US Non-Farm Employment Change & US Unemployment Rate announcement.
- U.S. Job Openings declined to 8.83 Million in July instead of the expected 9.49 million. This is bullish for Crypto due to its inverse relation with job openings. More job openings mean more USD in circulation, which can lead to chances of inflation in the short term.
- U.S. Non-farm payroll for Aug ‘23 stood at 187K above the 169K expectations. This is bearish for the crypto space. It measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
- The U.S. Unemployment rate for Aug ‘23 came at 3.8%, above the 3.5% expectation. This is bullish for the crypto space. It measures the % of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
- U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (YoY) came at 4.2% against the expected 4.2%. This is neutral for crypto assets. It measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
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US Prelim GDP q/q at 2.1% compared to the expected 2.4%. This is bullish for the crypto space. It measures the annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy and is released quarterly.
Crypto Markets Overview
- Market Movement: This week, the crypto markets experienced a slight 0.92% decrease, bringing the total market capitalization to $1.023 trillion. Notably, both BTC and ETH saw marginal declines of 1.66% and 1.27% respectively. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 49.20%, while Ethereum’s holds at 19.22%.
- Grayscale Wins SEC Battle: Crypto company Grayscale successfully fought the U.S. SEC to transform its Bitcoin fund into an ETF. This decision led to a significant 8%+ surge in Bitcoin’s price.
- SEC Delays Bitcoin ETF Decisions: The SEC postponed its verdict on Bitcoin ETF proposals from Blackrock, Invesco, WisdomTree, and others by several weeks, now expected in mid-October. This news caused a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s value to $26k.
- PM Modi Calls for Global Crypto Rules: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as G20 president, is advocating for global cryptocurrency regulations. He believes emerging tech like blockchain and crypto should have worldwide rules, much like aviation safety standards.
- Mukesh Ambani’s Crypto Plans: India’s wealthiest man, Mukesh Ambani, revealed plans to introduce blockchain-related products and a digital rupee through Jio Financial Services. These products aim to set new industry standards and prioritize security and regulatory compliance.
- Twitter’s Crypto Move: Social media platform X (formerly Twitter) obtained approval for the Rhode Island Currency Transmitter license, allowing it to enable crypto payments and trading in the U.S.
- Binance’s Changes and Russian Exit: Binance is gradually discontinuing its BUSD stablecoin and is contemplating leaving the Russian market due to various controversies affecting its operations in the region.
- SEBA Bank Hong Kong’s Crypto Approval: SEBA Bank’s Hong Kong branch secured an in-principle approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to engage in virtual asset activities, including OTC derivatives and asset management.
- $PEPE‘s Team Trouble: PEPE, faced internal conflicts as some team members with questionable intentions stole $15M. This led to a loss of trust and issues within the project.
- Hashdex Enters Bitcoin ETF Race: Hashdex joins the competition to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. market, following the lead of investment giant BlackRock.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Source: TradingView
Summary:
- BTC had a highly volatile week, moving up and down by 8%.( Beacuse of SEC news and Macro events)
- Currently trading around $25,800.
- Technically, it appears to have tested a trendline breakdown and the 50EMA in the 1-day timeframe, indicating a continued downtrend.
- Support levels include $25,300 (previous week low), $25,170 (previous month low), and approximately $24,800 (3-month low).
- Resistance levels are at $26,800 (previous week high) and $28,100 (50EMA Daily and retest level).
Bitcoin vs Dollar Index (TA Comparison)
Source: TradingView
- BTC and the dollar index (DXY) tend to move in opposite directions.
- Currently, the DXY seems to have retested a descending trendline breakout and is rising.
- Conversely, in the Bitcoin (BTC) chart, the opposite trend is observed.
- If the DXY surpasses the 105 level from here, BTC may potentially drop to around $24,000.
- However, this outcome depends on various other factors as well.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Source: TradingView
Summary:
- ETH’s price movement were same as BTC’s price actions.(trendline breakout & retest)
- Notably, a “death cross” has occurred as the 50EMA crossed below the 200EMA, indicating a bearish trend.
- The chart also shows strong adherence to Fibonacci levels. It recently retested the 0.382 level before declining.
- Key support levels include $1,607 (0.5 Fibonacci level), $1,482 (0.618 Fibonacci level), and $1,582 (200EMA weekly and previous week low).
- Resistance is at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, around $1,734.
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